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Fed Likely to Hold Rates Steady Despite High Inflation, But Mounting Risks Could Impact Outlook

  • The Federal Reserve will likely hold rates steady at its September meeting despite inflation being above target.

  • There are headwinds like student loan repayments, strikes, and high oil prices that could impact consumer spending and inflation.

  • The market seems to have shifted to viewing good economic data as positive since it may mean the Fed is close to pausing rate hikes.

  • The S&P 500 is only down 1.8% from recent highs, which may not fully reflect mounting concerns.

  • One strategist thinks there's been a shift in how the market interprets data, seeing good news as good again rather than a sign of more Fed hikes.

yahoo.com
Relevant topic timeline:
The majority of economists polled by Reuters predict that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again, and they expect the central bank to wait until at least the end of March before cutting them, as the probability of a recession within a year falls to its lowest level since September 2022.
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker suggests that the central bank may maintain steady interest rates in September and for an extended period of time to allow previous rate hikes to continue lowering inflation.
Investors have been building up bets on the Federal Reserve announcing an end to its rate hikes, but the central bank's preferred inflation data and Chair Jerome Powell's comments suggest that the cycle may not be over yet.
The Federal Reserve meeting in September may hold the key to the end of the tightening cycle, as markets anticipate a rate hike in November, aligning with the Fed's thinking on its peak rate. However, disagreement among Fed policymakers regarding the strength of the economy and inflation raises questions about the clarity and certainty of the Fed's guidance. Market skeptics remain uncertain about the possibility of a "soft landing," with sustained economic expansion following a period of tightening.
The former president of the Boston Fed suggests that the Federal Reserve can stop raising interest rates if the labor market and economic growth continue to slow at the current pace.
Federal Reserve policymakers are not eager to raise interest rates, but they are cautious about declaring victory as they monitor data such as inflation and job growth; most do not expect a rate hike at the upcoming policy-setting meeting.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged and delay any rate cuts until at least 2024, according to a Reuters poll of economists, despite some suggesting that another rate hike might be needed to address inflation.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to maintain a cautious approach and emphasize the Fed's resolve to target inflation and keep interest rates high for an extended period at next week's policy meeting, according to economists. The general consensus among economists is that the Fed will keep rates steady and suggest a possible rate hike later this year while closely monitoring inflation and the labor market.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its key interest rate steady in its upcoming meeting and provide insights on the duration of high interest rates.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, but market participants will be closely watching for any hints regarding future rate cuts.
Following the European Central Bank's record high interest rate hike to 4%, there is speculation about how long rates will remain at this level, with analysts predicting a 12-month pause before any cuts are made, while also considering the impact of rising oil prices on inflation expectations in Europe and the US. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady in September, but there are divided opinions on whether another hike will be delivered this year, with markets anticipating rate cuts in 2024. Similarly, the Bank of England is anticipated to make one final hike in September as it assesses inflation and economic indicators.
U.S. Treasury yields remained steady as investors awaited fresh economic data and the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's September meeting, with expectations of unchanged interest rates but uncertainty about future policy.
The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a pause on interest rate hikes due to positive economic indicators and the likelihood of a "soft landing" for the economy, but future decisions will be influenced by factors such as the resumption of student loan payments and a potential government shutdown.
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold its benchmark lending rate steady while waiting for more data on the impact of previous rate hikes on the US economy, but there is still a possibility of another rate increase in the future.
The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting will focus on the central bank's expectations for key indicators such as interest rates, GDP, inflation, and unemployment, while many economists believe that the Fed may signal a pause in its rate-hiking cycle but maintain the possibility of future rate increases.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain steady interest rates at its two-day meeting, but investors will be focused on policymakers' economic forecasts, while metals prices remain mixed and U.S. stock markets anticipate the release of the Fed's policy projections.
The US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 5.25% to 5.50%, projects higher rates for next year, and expects stronger economic growth, causing a slight drop in Bitcoin's price.
The Federal Reserve held off on raising interest rates at its September meeting, but economic activity and rising energy prices are likely to drive their decision in the next meeting.
The Federal Reserve has decided to pause interest rates while closely monitoring economic data, particularly unemployment and wages, as concerns about a potential recession and inflation remain.
The Federal Reserve has decided to keep interest rates steady, giving borrowers a break after 11 rate hikes and aiming to tame inflation while avoiding a recession.
The Federal Reserve has paused its campaign of increasing interest rates, indicating that they may stabilize in the coming months; however, this offers little relief to home buyers in a challenging housing market.
The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady, but economists are skeptical that a soft landing for the economy is guaranteed due to high inflation and continued economic growth.
The possibility of a last hike in 2023 with the pause in interest rates in September may lead to the tightening and financial conditions that were not seen earlier when the Fed was raising rates faster.
J.P. Morgan strategists predict that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates until the third quarter of next year due to a strong economy and continued inflation, with implications for inflation, earnings, and equity valuations as well as potential impact from a government shutdown.
The Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates as inflation resurfaces, according to Wall Street investor Caitlin Long, with big corporations benefiting while other sectors of the US economy are already in recession.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting may disappoint investors hoping for a shift in the central bank's hawkish monetary policy stance, as Treasury yields have already risen and some officials suggest less need for another rate hike in the current cycle.
Wall Street and policymakers at the Federal Reserve are optimistic that the rise in long-term Treasury yields could put an end to historic interest rate hikes meant to curb inflation, with financial markets now seeing a nearly 90% chance that the US central bank will keep rates unchanged at its next policy meeting on October 31 through November 1.
Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates again due to recent market moves that are expected to cool economic growth.
Markets are increasingly expecting a Fed pause in interest rate hikes, with the chance of a rate increase in November dropping to 15.8%, down from 23.1% a week ago and 38.4% a month ago, as volatile Treasury yields play a major role in shaping market expectations.
The Federal Reserve officials were uncertain about the future of the economy and decided to proceed with caution in their interest-rate policy, weighing the risks of overtightening versus insufficient tightening. They were divided on the frequency of rate hikes, with a majority supporting one more increase, but some feeling that the policy rate was nearing its peak. The recent spike in long-term bond rates has led to speculation that the Fed may not raise rates again this cycle.
The dollar remains steady as U.S. producer prices show a moderation in inflation, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve is done with interest rate hikes.
The Federal Reserve may be finished with its program of rate hikes as market moves are now helping to tame inflation on their own.
The report on consumer prices in September shows that inflation remains steady but still poses challenges, leading economists to predict that the Federal Reserve will keep the possibility of a final interest rate increase this year open.
The Federal Reserve will continue with its 'higher-for-longer' interest rate narrative unless there are signs of a slowdown in the consumer sector.