The majority of economists polled by Reuters predict that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again, and they expect the central bank to wait until at least the end of March before cutting them, as the probability of a recession within a year falls to its lowest level since September 2022.
The former president of the Boston Fed suggests that the Federal Reserve can stop raising interest rates if the labor market and economic growth continue to slow at the current pace.
The Federal Reserve is considering whether to raise interest rates even higher to combat inflation, but some policymakers believe that the current level is sufficient and should be maintained for an extended period.
Bond traders are anticipating that the Federal Reserve will continue with interest-rate hikes, and next week's consumer-price index report will provide further insight on how much more tightening may be required to control inflation.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate and may not cut it until the second quarter of 2024 or later, according to economists in a Reuters poll.
Traders and investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its September meeting, indicating a shift in the market's interpretation of good economic news, as it suggests the Fed may be close to pausing its rate hike cycle despite inflation being above target levels and potential headwinds in the economy.
The stock market is currently stagnant and the key question is when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates, as the market struggles when the Fed tightens monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its key interest rate steady in its upcoming meeting and provide insights on the duration of high interest rates.
Goldman Sachs strategists predict that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting, but expect the central bank to increase its economic growth projections and make slight adjustments to its interest rate projections.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week, but investors will be paying close attention to any indications of future rate increases as the central bank continues its fight against inflation.
The Federal Reserve plans to continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities, which will have an impact on stock markets, while keeping interest rates at current levels due to the lagged effect of monetary policy and the need for the commercial real estate market to adjust; however, there are concerns about the impact of tighter credit conditions on hiring and an increase in strikes, particularly in the auto industry. Elevated interest rates will pressure dividend-income investors and affect Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), while the reduction of securities by the Fed may lead to a decline in stock indices. The Fed is considering raising rates in November or December but is uncertain about how long rates will remain at current levels. The core personal consumption expenditure is falling, and rising energy prices are increasing overall inflation, but the Fed is excluding energy prices due to volatility and suggests that high oil prices may impact its stance in the future. Stock market traders have a short-term time frame and may find instruments like Instacart (CART) and Arm (ARM) more suitable, while long-term investors should prepare for the market adjusting to the Fed's restrictive policy by moving capital gains into money market funds, considering energy stocks at lower prices, and being cautious of high-flying technology stocks and IPOs.
The Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates until inflation decreases, even if it means more people losing their jobs, according to CNBC's Jim Cramer.
Stocks may not be as negatively impacted by higher interest rates as some fear, as the Federal Reserve's forecast of sustained economic growth justifies the higher rates and could lead to increased stock valuations.
The Federal Reserve has upgraded its economic outlook, indicating stronger growth and lower unemployment, but also plans to raise interest rates and keep borrowing costs elevated, causing disappointment in the markets and potential challenges for borrowers.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are seeing a slight increase, but they are still facing pressure due to rising bond yields and uncertainty over interest rates and Federal Reserve policy.
The Federal Reserve's commitment to higher interest rates has led to a surge in Treasury yields, causing significant disruptions in the bond market and affecting various sectors of the economy.
J.P. Morgan strategists predict that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates until the third quarter of next year due to a strong economy and continued inflation, with implications for inflation, earnings, and equity valuations as well as potential impact from a government shutdown.
Investors are becoming increasingly concerned about sustained high interest rates, with the bond and foreign-exchange markets already showing signs of adjusting, and if stock markets do not follow suit, the coming months could be particularly challenging.
Rising Treasury rates and oil prices are creating an unfavorable situation for consumers, investors, and the economy, making it challenging for the Federal Reserve to manage inflation without causing a recession. The potential for a "soft landing" and decreased inflation remains, but the economy should prepare for possible sector-by-sector recessions and a full-blown recession, along with government shutdowns and fiscal policy disputes becoming normal occurrences. The discrepancy between short-term and longer-term rates controlled by the Fed has gained importance, with higher borrowing costs disrupting the stock and bond markets. In this volatile period, long-term investors should hold on and ensure they have enough money saved to weather the storm. While the Fed has pushed short-term rates higher, it has also benefited savers with higher yields on money market funds, short-term Treasury bills, and high-yield savings accounts. However, a strong dollar has impacted S&P 500 earnings, leading to a struggling stock market and increased costs for imports and exports. Rising interest rates pose the greatest economic challenge, affecting consumer loans and dampening spending. Traders who bet on long-term bonds have faced losses due to rising rates, highlighting the inverse relationship between interest rates and bond prices. As a result, it may be advisable to purchase shorter-term Treasuries and keep bond durations lower. The surge in bond yields has also disrupted stock investors' expectations of controlled inflation and the Fed's tightening, leading to stock market losses. The economy and markets may experience more turmoil, as there are various factors beyond the Federal Reserve's control.
The Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates as inflation resurfaces, according to Wall Street investor Caitlin Long, with big corporations benefiting while other sectors of the US economy are already in recession.
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman predicts that the Federal Reserve is likely done raising interest rates as the economy slows down, but warns of continuing spillover effects and expects bond yields to rise further.
Two Federal Reserve officials, Raphael Bostic and Loretta Mester, expressed their beliefs that interest rates will remain high for an extended period of time due to the need for restrictive monetary policy and the strength of the US economy.
The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates high for a longer period has sparked a debate among financial experts over the possibility of an impending recession.
The Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates again this year due to an already uncertain political climate in Washington, as well as a cooling economy, slowing inflation, and potential negative impacts from high interest rates and a government shutdown.
The Federal Reserve is expected to continue reducing its bond holdings despite the recent surge in bond yields, as key measures of volatility and liquidity in the bond market are not indicating a significant risk, and higher credit costs align with the central bank's goal of restraining growth and lowering inflation.
The Federal Reserve is facing a tough decision on interest rates as some officials believe further rate increases are necessary to combat inflation, while others argue that the current rate tightening will continue to ease rising prices; however, the recent sell-off in government bonds could have a cooling effect on the economy, which may influence the Fed's decision.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates higher for longer due to the potential inflation caused by rising oil prices amid the escalating war between Israel and Hamas, according to billionaire venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya.
Goldman Sachs warns that the Federal Reserve's prolonged tight monetary policy and higher interest rates will have a negative impact on the economy and markets, potentially leading to lower GDP growth, stock market pressure, and challenges for corporations.
Top Federal Reserve officials have indicated that rising yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds may halt further increases in the short-term policy rate, as the central bank monitors potential risks to the economy.
Wall Street and policymakers at the Federal Reserve are optimistic that the rise in long-term Treasury yields could put an end to historic interest rate hikes meant to curb inflation, with financial markets now seeing a nearly 90% chance that the US central bank will keep rates unchanged at its next policy meeting on October 31 through November 1.
Investors are closely monitoring the bond market and September CPI data to determine the Fed's stance on interest rates, with Seema Shah of Principal Asset Management highlighting the circular nature of market reactions to yield spikes and their subsequent declines. She suggests that while there are concerns about upward momentum, the equity market will find comfort in a continued drop in yields and could remain range-bound for the rest of the year. Diversification is recommended as the market narrative remains unclear, and investors may consider waiting until early 2024 for greater clarity on the economy and the Fed's actions.
Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates again due to recent market moves that are expected to cool economic growth.
The Federal Reserve officials were uncertain about the future of the economy and decided to proceed with caution in their interest-rate policy, weighing the risks of overtightening versus insufficient tightening. They were divided on the frequency of rate hikes, with a majority supporting one more increase, but some feeling that the policy rate was nearing its peak. The recent spike in long-term bond rates has led to speculation that the Fed may not raise rates again this cycle.
The Federal Reserve will continue with its 'higher-for-longer' interest rate narrative unless there are signs of a slowdown in the consumer sector.
Federal Reserve officials are expected to pause on raising interest rates at their next meeting due to recent increases in bond yields, but they are not ruling out future rate increases as economic data continues to show a strong economy and potential inflation risks. The Fed is cautious about signaling an end to further tightening and is focused on balancing the risk of overshooting inflation targets with the need to avoid a recession. The recent surge in bond yields may provide some restraint on the economy, but policymakers are closely monitoring financial conditions and inflation expectations.
Federal Reserve policy makers should establish a longer-term vision for interest-rate policy instead of reacting aggressively to each data point, according to Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz SE. He warns that over-tightening monetary policy to reach the inflation target of 2% too quickly could cause damage to the economy. El-Erian hopes that the Fed keeps its benchmark interest rate unchanged for the rest of the year for the sake of economic stability.
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/GQ7GEKKB4VPYPH2Z6KHV4XPF4Q.jpg)