### Summary
The S&P 500 returns over the last one, five, and ten years are only slightly above their long-term averages, suggesting that the stock market is not unanchored from reality. However, the performance of long-term US Treasuries has been poor, with even 10-year Treasuries resulting in losses over the last five years. Slower economic growth may be on the horizon, but it remains uncertain whether it will be enough to bring down inflation rates.
### Facts
- The S&P 500 returns over the last one, five, and ten years are only slightly above their long-term averages.
- The performance of long-term US Treasuries has been weak, resulting in losses for investors even after accounting for coupon payments.
- Slower economic growth may be on the horizon, but it remains uncertain if it will bring down inflation rates.
- The nature of the stock market rally suggests that investors are still searching for buying opportunities rather than thinking about selling.
- Energy, industrials, and financials have become favored sectors, while technology stocks have started to decline.
- The Chinese economy is struggling, with retail sales and industrial production growth slowing down.
- The Federal Reserve has expressed concerns about inflation but also noted downside risks to the economy.
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The S&P 500 has fallen nearly 5% in August, and opinions on whether stocks will rebound are divided among Wall Street firms and market commentators, with some, like Goldman Sachs and Fundstrat, remaining optimistic while others, including Michael Burry and David Rosenberg, are bearish.
Volatility and rising interest rates have caused a pullback in U.S. equity markets, particularly impacting the technology sector, but investors should not panic as pullbacks are normal in a bull market and present buying opportunities. China's deteriorating economic conditions and weak seasonal trends have also contributed to the selling pressure. However, support is expected to be found in the 4,200 to 4,300 range in the S&P 500, and the Federal Reserve's likely end to the rate-hiking cycle and improved earnings should provide fundamental support for investors to buy the dip.
The S&P 500 is nearing a new bull market, potentially leading to stock market growth, and investors should consider stocks like Amazon and Mastercard based on the holdings of Wall Street billionaires and their solid growth prospects.
The S&P 500 is showing signs of a new bull market, but some experts are cautious and want to wait until the index reaches its previous high, meanwhile, there are two stocks, Sea Limited and Upstart Holdings, that have the potential to more than double in value over the next 12 to 18 months based on analysts' price targets.
Ethereum may have reached a bottom in the bear market and is expected to break out from an ascending triangle pattern, according to crypto strategist Credible Crypto, who predicts a consolidation between $1,600 and $2,000 for the rest of the year before a surge in early 2024. However, they also hold a bearish view for ETH/BTC in the short term.
Key social metrics suggest that cryptocurrency markets may soon rebound, as the use of the term "bear market" has reached an 11-week high on social media platforms, which historically indicates that price rises are likely; additionally, deep-pocketed investors are accumulating Bitcoin again, contributing to a recent rally.
The S&P 500 has recovered 65% of last year's bear-market drop, but when adjusted for inflation it is only about 45%, highlighting the diminished buying power and implying implications for the economy and future Federal Reserve policy.
The S&P 500 is close to reaching a record high, signaling the upcoming arrival of a new U.S. bull market, and investors should consider buying stocks like Roku and Datadog that have strong growth potential.
The S&P 500 and other major indices are showing bearish signals, with potential for a significant drop, while the dollar is expected to maintain its upward trajectory and strong economic data could lead to a breakout in interest rates. Additionally, Meta's stock is on a downward trend and the KBW NASDAQ BANK Index is at risk of further decline.
Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel predicts that the stock market will continue to rise into the end of the year, with the S&P 500 potentially surging 25% and gaining an additional 9% if the Federal Reserve acknowledges falling inflation and refrains from further interest rate hikes.
The S&P 500 has rallied in 2023 due to factors such as cooling inflation, a strong economy, and a positive outlook for earnings, but concerns over credit market volatility, monetary policy uncertainty, and steep valuations pose risks to the bull market rally.
The recent market pullback has investors questioning if it's the start of a bear market or just a correction, but it's important to recognize that markets are inherently uncertain, and focusing on long-term goals and factors we can control is key to success in investing.
The S&P 500 could experience significant gains in the coming months following the end of the current rate hike cycle by the Federal Reserve, with historical data showing positive returns after previous cycles and strong economic indicators supporting this trend. Investors are advised to consider investing in an S&P 500 index fund or industry-leading stocks like Amazon.
The fundamentals and technicals support a demographically driven bull market in stocks until 2034, but potential risks include inflation, interest rate-induced debt crisis, and refinancing problems, which could lead to a drop in the stock market. Comparing the S&P 500's score in August 2023 to historical patterns, the market seems confident and not indicating an imminent debt crisis or severe recession. Credit spreads also appear tame compared to previous crisis periods. However, the article notes the possibility of abrupt changes in the market and encourages openness to a wide range of outcomes.
Despite economic challenges, the S&P 500 is expected to continue its strong growth, potentially increasing by as much as 11% as the summer season ends, driven by companies like Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Slimmon.
Cryptocurrency industry observers argue that Bitcoin is not in its longest bear market and may not even be in a bear market at all, as the definitions of bull and bear markets are subjective and can vary based on different interpretations. Some believe that Bitcoin has been in a bear market since its peak in November 2021, while others argue that Bitcoin has been in a continuous bull market since 2019.
The S&P 500 rally is expected to fade as economic data supports a higher for longer monetary policy, with weaker job opening data and ADP job report sending rates down and a strong job report and ISM data pushing rates higher, creating challenges for the stock market as financial conditions tighten and leading to lower levels.
Bitcoin has been on a bull run since the Federal Reserve's $25 billion program to stabilize the US banking system, according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who predicts that the market will respond in the next six to 12 months.
The stock market is still in an uptrend despite a recent pullback, and there is a likelihood of higher stock prices in the near term as long as the market continues to advance within its uptrending channel. Additionally, the recent breakout in the S&P 500 is a bullish sign for the market, and commodity-related stocks have begun to outperform, making them attractive investments.
The S&P 500 has gained 17% year to date, signaling the onset of a new bull market, and investors looking to capitalize on this should consider the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and the Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF, both of which have produced significant gains over the last decade.
The S&P 500 Index rallied off support but may not be starting a new bull market as resistance at 4500 has caused a decline.
Bank of America predicts that the S&P 500 could surge over 25% within the next year based on a bullish indicator, with low long-term profit growth expectations among analysts signaling potential gains.
The next crypto bull run will be different from the last one, as corporate interest in blockchain technology will drive gradual growth rather than a sudden surge in prices, according to Lars Seier Christensen, founder of Concordium. However, there are differing opinions, with some experts believing that we are already in the initial stages of a bull market.
The S&P 500 is expected to rise 13% by June 2024, according to a historical correlation between first-half returns and subsequent 12-month gains, indicating a potentially bullish outlook for the stock market.
Analyst Rekt Capital predicts that Bitcoin could experience a post-halving bull run lasting 18 months, potentially topping out in September or October 2025, based on historical data from previous halving events. However, he also warns of a potential collapse in the months leading up to the halving, with BTC potentially revisiting a price point of around $20,300 in mid-February 2024.
The recent market pullback continues as the S&P 500 is down 2.9% for the week and 5.9% below its high-water mark, but the broadening of market participation is a positive indicator for the sustainability of the bull market.
The S&P 500's potential for a long-term bull market relies on it surpassing a key level.
The recent decline in the market and various indicators suggest that the market may already be in or very close to a bear market, signaling the need for caution and a potential economic recession.
Investors are concerned about a potential showdown for the S&P 500 as stock market commentator, Heisenberg, shares a chart indicating bearish patterns and a major trend line off the October lows, suggesting a sharp drop in the index. Rising bond yields, climbing oil prices, and fears of slowing consumer spending are also factors contributing to investor unease.
The author discusses the 2024 stock market outlook, including the bull vs. bear debate, the S&P 500's potential performance, and top stock picks for the year.
The S&P 500 has been hit hard by the September Effect, but investors should remain optimistic as history suggests the market will rebound, and there are compelling buying opportunities in certain growth stocks like Block and SolarEdge with upside potential of 93% and 127% respectively.
The recent two-week selloff in the stock market confirms a weak market and raises the possibility of new lows, indicating that the so-called bull market was just a rebound and the next bull market will be driven by different factors. Investors should focus on traditional fundamentals and cash reserves rather than poor investments.
The S&P 500 closed out the quarter with a 3.6% loss, attributed to factors such as rising interest rates, a slowing housing market, and businesses preparing for tough times, resulting in a slow decline in stocks. Additionally, the resumption of student loan payments and expectations of more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve are expected to impact consumer spending power and business cutbacks. However, as the year comes to an end, traders and investors may look forward to 2024 for possible rate cuts and a return of strength in the market.
The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes have resulted in a decline in the profitability of S&P 500 companies, with the return on equity ratio falling this year, and the trend could worsen if interest rates remain high.
The recent increase in oil prices has analysts debating whether the rally will continue or fizzle out, with the bulls predicting prices in triple digits and the bears foreseeing a drop below $90 by Christmas, but it is expected that the market will be tight until January before the bears gain the upper hand next year.
The S&P 500's stability at the 4,200 level is crucial for determining the continuation of the bull market, with chartists and investors closely monitoring the 200-day moving average and potential implications for long-term trends and investor sentiment.
Bitcoin's bull market is expected to reignite as the Federal Reserve is predicted to resume printing money, leading to a surge in Bitcoin's price, according to BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes.
Manish Kabra, head US equity and multiasset strategist at Société Générale, predicts that the S&P 500 will continue to be a "buy the dip" for the next six months due to improving profit growth and cyclical data, with a target range of 4,050 to 4,750, before a mild recession in 2024 potentially leads to a selloff in US stocks.
Crypto markets survived a tough period in 2022, but risks were adequately reflected in prices and set the stage for a new bull market, with current risks changing and declining as the market enters the "skepticism" phase.
The "greatest bond bear market of all time" is occurring as the fixed-income market faces a significant decline in the U.S. 30-year yield, leading to outflows from bond funds and a rise in Treasury yields.
The US Treasury bond market is experiencing the greatest bear market of all time, with a significant decline in performance and a 50% loss in the 30-year US Treasury bonds.
Bitcoin's bear market may be over and an upward expansion is likely, according to a popular crypto analyst who compares the current situation to that before the 2016 and 2020 bull markets.
