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Market Selloffs Signal More Pain Ahead Before New Bull Emerges

  • Recent market declines confirm weakness and open door to new lows
  • Previous "bull market" was just a rebound as dire predictions faded
  • Next bull requires traditional fundamentals, not meme stocks or SPACs
  • Despite valuations, "real" investor worry not here yet to cause selloff
  • Stay in cash until new bull with different drivers emerges after washout
forbes.com
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Bitcoin's current market structure is similar to its setup before reaching its all-time high in November 2021, suggesting a potential bullish trajectory for the leading cryptocurrency, according to crypto expert Credible Crypto, who believes a breakout from the accumulation range could lead to a 120% rally and new all-time highs this year. However, a drop below $24.8k would invalidate this prediction.
The U.S. stock market experienced a milder bear market in 2022 compared to historical bear markets, with a decline of 25% from its prior high, and history suggests that a new bull market is likely to follow soon.
A stock market rally is likely to occur in the near future, as recent data indicates that a bounce is expected after a period of selling pressure, with several sectors and markets reaching oversold levels and trading below their normal risk ranges. Additionally, analysis suggests that sectors such as Utilities, Consumer Staples, Real Estate, Financials, and Bonds, which have been underperforming, could provide upside potential in 2024 if there is a decline in interest rates driven by the Federal Reserve.
Wall Street has experienced a strong rebound in 2023, with major market indexes climbing at least 20% from their lows, leading to optimism about the beginning of the next bull market; investors are advised to consider buying Alphabet and Amazon due to their strong performance, dominance in their respective industries, and attractive valuations.
Volatility and rising interest rates have caused a pullback in U.S. equity markets, particularly impacting the technology sector, but investors should not panic as pullbacks are normal in a bull market and present buying opportunities. China's deteriorating economic conditions and weak seasonal trends have also contributed to the selling pressure. However, support is expected to be found in the 4,200 to 4,300 range in the S&P 500, and the Federal Reserve's likely end to the rate-hiking cycle and improved earnings should provide fundamental support for investors to buy the dip.
The stock market is rising despite bad news, as interest rates lower and stabilizing rates are seen as positive signs.
The S&P 500 is showing signs of a new bull market, but some experts are cautious and want to wait until the index reaches its previous high, meanwhile, there are two stocks, Sea Limited and Upstart Holdings, that have the potential to more than double in value over the next 12 to 18 months based on analysts' price targets.
The stock market experienced a sharp decline as early gains turned into a selloff, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all falling; concerns over rising bond yields and inflation contributed to the sell-off.
Key social metrics suggest that cryptocurrency markets may soon rebound, as the use of the term "bear market" has reached an 11-week high on social media platforms, which historically indicates that price rises are likely; additionally, deep-pocketed investors are accumulating Bitcoin again, contributing to a recent rally.
Bank of America believes that the stock market will continue to rise as investors' bullish sentiment contradicts their conservative portfolio positioning, suggesting there is still upside potential until hedge funds increase their exposure to cyclical and high-beta stocks and economic conditions deteriorate considerably.
Investors should buy stocks during the August market weakness as the current pullback is just a healthy correction in a bull market, supported by economic resilience, technical analysis indicating an upward trend, insiders turning more bullish, and cautious investor sentiment.
The markets are facing numerous headwinds, including an imbalanced U.S. economy, stubborn inflation, a looming recession in Europe and China, a bulging deficit, reduced market liquidity, rising geopolitical risk, and high price earnings ratios, making above-average cash reserves a sensible choice for investors.
There is a possibility that digital assets may not witness another bull market, according to a crypto strategist who is growing skeptical of the market's potential for a bullish reversal this time around, citing a lack of real-world use cases and the failure to deliver on promises. However, another investor remains confident that a crypto bull market is coming, predicting a potential decline in prices before a new bull market begins.
Stocks bounce back after weak job opening data, but achieving positive returns for the month remains uncertain due to market uncertainties and unanswered questions about the strength of the consumer and investor behavior. Hedge funds are increasingly taking on risk, but are still below exuberance levels, according to Société Générale.
The fundamentals and technicals support a demographically driven bull market in stocks until 2034, but potential risks include inflation, interest rate-induced debt crisis, and refinancing problems, which could lead to a drop in the stock market. Comparing the S&P 500's score in August 2023 to historical patterns, the market seems confident and not indicating an imminent debt crisis or severe recession. Credit spreads also appear tame compared to previous crisis periods. However, the article notes the possibility of abrupt changes in the market and encourages openness to a wide range of outcomes.
Stock investors have been reacting positively to "bad economic news" as it may imply a slowdown in the economy and a potential halt to interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, however, for this trend to change, economic data would have to be much worse than it is currently.
The stock market is still in an uptrend despite a recent pullback, and there is a likelihood of higher stock prices in the near term as long as the market continues to advance within its uptrending channel. Additionally, the recent breakout in the S&P 500 is a bullish sign for the market, and commodity-related stocks have begun to outperform, making them attractive investments.
The stock market sinks as a tech selloff occurs due to investors' fear of more Fed rate hikes, with Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia all experiencing significant declines.
A pseudonymous analyst warns that a weak stock market could trigger a sell-off in the crypto market, advising against bullish positions in both markets.
A bull market is expected to come after a bear market, and investors are advised to buy stock in Alphabet and Amazon, two companies that have recently split their stock and are likely to benefit in strong market times.
The bullish and bearish narratives in the market are clashing over whether there will be a soft landing or economic problems in the future. The battle over the economy and concern over inflation will be the primary issue for the market in the coming months.
The stock market is expected to reach new highs by the end of the year, as a leading bond market indicator signals a bullish trend, according to Bank of America.
The stock market has been strong in 2023, but there are still bargains available, such as Block and Safehold, which are slightly above their 52-week lows.
The bull market in stocks remains strong despite various concerns, as indicated by the low CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and rising corporate earnings estimates.
The article discusses how the historically volatile week will test the bull market in stocks.
Investors are selling and bringing the market down due to reasons like interest rates, macroeconomic weakness, fear of giving up on gains, the Federal Reserve, the political climate, and potential strikes, according to CNBC's Jim Cramer.
The stock market experienced a correction as Treasury yields increased, causing major indexes to break key support levels and leading stocks to suffer damage, while only a few stocks held up relatively well; however, it is currently not a favorable time for new purchases in the market.
Stocks may be experiencing a temporary pullback, but it is not a signal of a bear market, and a bull market may still be continuing; making the mistake of not positioning for long-term bullishness could result in significant financial losses.
The recent market pullback continues as the S&P 500 is down 2.9% for the week and 5.9% below its high-water mark, but the broadening of market participation is a positive indicator for the sustainability of the bull market.
The market experienced a weak oversold bounce on Monday, with breadth remaining anemic and new 12-month lows increasing, largely driven by dropping bond prices and surging interest rates. Ultimately, this market action is not indicative of a turning point and is expected to attract more selling than buying.
The stock market sinks as Wall Street focuses on the downside of a strong job market, with rising Treasury yields putting pressure on stocks and making borrowing more expensive for companies and households.
Stocks on Wall Street experienced a selloff as rising Treasury yields and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve policymakers put pressure on investors and dampened appetite for stocks, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both dropping around 1.1% and the Nasdaq Composite down over 1.5%; however, stocks somewhat recovered from their lows in midday trading as investors digested fresh comments from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester.
Crypto strategist predicts that Bitcoin will enter a massive bull run and reach new all-time highs once it surpasses a key support level, but warns that bearish speculation from the stock market could decrease momentum.
Bitcoin's bull market is expected to reignite as the Federal Reserve is predicted to resume printing money, leading to a surge in Bitcoin's price, according to BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes.
Stock market outlook is divided as some remain bullish, citing attractive valuations and potential for a year-end rally, while others warn of ongoing sell-off due to expensive valuations, restrictive interest rates, and geopolitical risks.
The recent stock market pullback accompanied by a Treasury market rout has left investors increasingly pessimistic, but extreme pessimism could potentially lead to strong stock-market gains in the future, depending on how the situation resolves.
The S&P 500 has entered a bull market, marking a rise of 20% or more from its recent low, with hopes that the economy will continue to defy predictions of a recession caused by high inflation and aggressive measures taken by the Federal Reserve. However, concerns remain as the Fed is expected to continue hiking interest rates and the gains in the market have mainly been driven by a small group of stocks, raising sustainability concerns. Bull markets typically last around 5 years with gains of 177.8%, while the previous bull market lasted 21 months and the current one began on Oct. 13, 2022. The recent bear market ended on Oct. 12, 2022, with a duration of nine months and a drop of 25.4%.
The current rally in stocks since October 2022 is one of the weakest bull markets on record, with elevated valuations and monetary tightening measures limiting upside potential, according to Ned Davis Research.
A bullish formula for the stock market is emerging as the economy grows, with positive GDP growth, improving earnings, and a paused Federal Reserve leading to a bullish outlook for stocks, according to JPMorgan. The Nasdaq 100 Index is also following a similar playbook from 1999, although JPMorgan is not predicting a repeat of the mind-boggling year-end rally seen in 1999.
Market sentiment indicators suggest that the recent decline in the stock market may be the beginning of a larger bear market, although some indicators still signal bullish sentiment.
The S&P 500 celebrated its first anniversary since reaching its bear-market low, but some experts argue that the market's weak performance in the past year may not qualify it as a strong bull market just yet.
Despite the current strong rally, the American stock market is not expected to reclaim its previous peak in the near future due to geopolitical risks, uncertainty about inflation and interest rates, and political dysfunction in Washington, resulting in a slow grind lower, leaving room for both bullish and bearish sentiments.
The stock market is in need of a major reset and return to traditional capital market operations after years of skewed actions by the Federal Reserve, and a significant crash is necessary to shake up the strong negative investor mindset.
The majority of stocks are currently underperforming, indicating a possible stock market crash, as treasuries experience a disturbing crash and credit spreads start to widen, according to analyst Michael A. Gayed.
Contrarian investors are advised to take advantage of the current market decline by building cash reserves, identifying attractive investment opportunities during the plummet, cautiously investing during the bottom, and enjoying the gains during the reversal, as this could potentially signal the start of a new bull market.
The selloff in Wall Street stocks accelerates as bond market turbulence and Middle East tension weigh on investor sentiment, with even megacap tech companies experiencing significant drops in stock value.
Bitcoin's recent upward move confirms that it is now in a bull market cycle, with potential for significant growth due to stablecoin adoption, tokenization of real-world assets, and the changing stance of traditional financial institutions.
Despite positive economic news, the stock market experienced a decline due to the realization that interest rates are likely to remain high, resulting in a decrease in stock valuations; however, the market is expected to rebound in the long term due to strong earnings growth and a solid economic foundation.