### Summary
The S&P 500 returns over the last one, five, and ten years are only slightly above their long-term averages, suggesting that the stock market is not unanchored from reality. However, the performance of long-term US Treasuries has been poor, with even 10-year Treasuries resulting in losses over the last five years. Slower economic growth may be on the horizon, but it remains uncertain whether it will be enough to bring down inflation rates.
### Facts
- The S&P 500 returns over the last one, five, and ten years are only slightly above their long-term averages.
- The performance of long-term US Treasuries has been weak, resulting in losses for investors even after accounting for coupon payments.
- Slower economic growth may be on the horizon, but it remains uncertain if it will bring down inflation rates.
- The nature of the stock market rally suggests that investors are still searching for buying opportunities rather than thinking about selling.
- Energy, industrials, and financials have become favored sectors, while technology stocks have started to decline.
- The Chinese economy is struggling, with retail sales and industrial production growth slowing down.
- The Federal Reserve has expressed concerns about inflation but also noted downside risks to the economy.
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The recent price pullback in Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market is not surprising, as most risk assets typically suffer when the S&P 500 falls; however, volatility for both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is declining, which suggests mainstream migration and a potential lack of price-pump potential for Bitcoin.
Volatility and rising interest rates have caused a pullback in U.S. equity markets, particularly impacting the technology sector, but investors should not panic as pullbacks are normal in a bull market and present buying opportunities. China's deteriorating economic conditions and weak seasonal trends have also contributed to the selling pressure. However, support is expected to be found in the 4,200 to 4,300 range in the S&P 500, and the Federal Reserve's likely end to the rate-hiking cycle and improved earnings should provide fundamental support for investors to buy the dip.
The cryptocurrency market has experienced a notable downturn, with the total market capitalization falling by 10% and triggering significant liquidations on futures contracts, attributed to factors such as rising interest rates, inflation, delays in approving a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), financial difficulties within the Digital Currency Group (DCG), regulatory tightening, and a strengthening US dollar.
The Federal Reserve's plan to raise interest rates could lead to increased sell pressure on Bitcoin, potentially pushing its price down to the $25,000 range, although the impact may be limited due to consolidation and caution among traders.
The S&P 500 and other major indices are showing bearish signals, with potential for a significant drop, while the dollar is expected to maintain its upward trajectory and strong economic data could lead to a breakout in interest rates. Additionally, Meta's stock is on a downward trend and the KBW NASDAQ BANK Index is at risk of further decline.
The S&P 500 could experience significant gains in the coming months following the end of the current rate hike cycle by the Federal Reserve, with historical data showing positive returns after previous cycles and strong economic indicators supporting this trend. Investors are advised to consider investing in an S&P 500 index fund or industry-leading stocks like Amazon.
The S&P 500 Index experienced its best week since June, while Bitcoin faced a marginal loss due to the delay of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund applications by the Securities and Exchange Commission, although analysts remain optimistic about future ETF approvals.
The stock market is still in an uptrend despite a recent pullback, and there is a likelihood of higher stock prices in the near term as long as the market continues to advance within its uptrending channel. Additionally, the recent breakout in the S&P 500 is a bullish sign for the market, and commodity-related stocks have begun to outperform, making them attractive investments.
Renewed concern over the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and the potential for another hike this year has led to lower S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are slightly up.
Investors are becoming increasingly nervous due to concerns about the Fed potentially increasing interest rates, as well as rising 10-year interest rates and the VIX, which may put pressure on stocks; however, there are also positive factors emerging, such as improving S&P 500 profit estimates and a shift away from data dependence by Fed officials, which suggests a better finish to September is probable.
The recent increase in interest rates has impacted the price of bitcoin, with factors like opportunity cost, risk sentiment, and inflation expectations playing a role.
Economist Gary Shilling predicts that the S&P 500 will decline by around 40% during this market cycle, citing recession indicators such as the yield curve and The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index. He believes that a US recession may already be underway due to the Federal Reserve's focus on reducing inflation, and high valuations in the stock market increase the likelihood of a significant drop.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced a rise prior to the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, signaling possible volatility in the market.
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones gained as Treasury yields pulled back ahead of a likely pause in the Federal Reserve's policy tightening campaign, although concerns over rates staying higher for longer kept investor sentiment cautious.
The US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 5.25% to 5.50%, projects higher rates for next year, and expects stronger economic growth, causing a slight drop in Bitcoin's price.
Despite a perceived undervaluation of the S&P 500, analysts warn of potential volatility in both the stock market and the Bitcoin market due to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which could shape narratives and challenge conventional wisdom. The S&P 500 appears oversold while Bitcoin consolidates with a potential target of $22,000.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced a decline after the Federal Reserve decided not to raise interest rates, suggesting that significant gains may not be anticipated in the near future.
Markets on Wall Street are expected to open with losses after the Federal Reserve suggests it may not cut interest rates next year by as much as previously thought, leading to a decline in futures for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average; uncertainty surrounding inflationary indicators and high rates is a major concern for traders moving forward.
The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and raise its long-term forecast for the Federal Funds Rate surprised many market participants, causing a slight pullback in the stock and cryptocurrency markets while highlighting the need for investors to focus on the actual health and viability of companies and the utility of the crypto ecosystem. Additionally, the article speculates on the impact of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's ruling on Bitcoin spot ETF applications and the potential for cryptocurrency to become a mainstream alternative investment.
The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates at their highest in over 20 years is posing a "nightmare" scenario for bitcoin and crypto companies, potentially leading to price chaos and further decline in the bitcoin price.
The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates and the possibility of rates remaining higher for longer may have triggered a sell-off in the US equities and cryptocurrency markets, with risk assets typically underperforming in a high-interest-rate environment.
Bitcoin and the S&P 500 are likely to end the third quarter lower due to the strong case for owning bonds over stocks, with government bonds offering a higher return, making them more attractive than risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
The U.S. dollar is gaining strength, causing concerns about interest rates and negatively impacting the S&P 500.
The Federal Reserve's commitment to higher interest rates has led to a surge in Treasury yields, causing significant disruptions in the bond market and affecting various sectors of the economy.
The S&P 500 is likely to experience more pain in the stock market unless the rise in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar comes to an end, based on technical charts and trends among index components.
Investors are concerned about a potential showdown for the S&P 500 as stock market commentator, Heisenberg, shares a chart indicating bearish patterns and a major trend line off the October lows, suggesting a sharp drop in the index. Rising bond yields, climbing oil prices, and fears of slowing consumer spending are also factors contributing to investor unease.
Bitcoin and Ethereum saw gains in the crypto market driven by factors such as the announcement of an Ethereum futures ETF, a rise in the S&P 500 index, and short liquidations, with the rest of the market also experiencing bullish gains.
Rising Treasury rates and oil prices are creating an unfavorable situation for consumers, investors, and the economy, making it challenging for the Federal Reserve to manage inflation without causing a recession. The potential for a "soft landing" and decreased inflation remains, but the economy should prepare for possible sector-by-sector recessions and a full-blown recession, along with government shutdowns and fiscal policy disputes becoming normal occurrences. The discrepancy between short-term and longer-term rates controlled by the Fed has gained importance, with higher borrowing costs disrupting the stock and bond markets. In this volatile period, long-term investors should hold on and ensure they have enough money saved to weather the storm. While the Fed has pushed short-term rates higher, it has also benefited savers with higher yields on money market funds, short-term Treasury bills, and high-yield savings accounts. However, a strong dollar has impacted S&P 500 earnings, leading to a struggling stock market and increased costs for imports and exports. Rising interest rates pose the greatest economic challenge, affecting consumer loans and dampening spending. Traders who bet on long-term bonds have faced losses due to rising rates, highlighting the inverse relationship between interest rates and bond prices. As a result, it may be advisable to purchase shorter-term Treasuries and keep bond durations lower. The surge in bond yields has also disrupted stock investors' expectations of controlled inflation and the Fed's tightening, leading to stock market losses. The economy and markets may experience more turmoil, as there are various factors beyond the Federal Reserve's control.
The US economy is facing turbulence as inflation rates rise, causing losses in US Treasuries and raising concerns about the impact of high interest rates on assets like Bitcoin and the stock market. With additional government debt expected to mature in the next year, there is a fear of financial instability and the potential for severe disruptions in the financial system. The Federal Reserve may continue to support the financial system through emergency credit lines, which could benefit assets like Bitcoin.
The Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 are facing more potential corrections in October as stocks respond to a bond market selloff and economic data is closely scrutinized to validate the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on inflation control, creating both challenges and compelling opportunities for investors.
The S&P 500 closed out the quarter with a 3.6% loss, attributed to factors such as rising interest rates, a slowing housing market, and businesses preparing for tough times, resulting in a slow decline in stocks. Additionally, the resumption of student loan payments and expectations of more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve are expected to impact consumer spending power and business cutbacks. However, as the year comes to an end, traders and investors may look forward to 2024 for possible rate cuts and a return of strength in the market.
The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes have resulted in a decline in the profitability of S&P 500 companies, with the return on equity ratio falling this year, and the trend could worsen if interest rates remain high.
Crypto analyst Jason Pizzino predicts that both Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500 (SPX) could experience a dip in early October before entering a bullish market cycle, with Bitcoin potentially reaching a higher close of $28,518.
The Federal Reserve's shift towards higher interest rates is causing significant turmoil in financial markets, with major averages falling and Treasury yields reaching their highest levels in 16 years, resulting in increased costs of capital for companies and potential challenges for banks and consumers.
The Federal Reserve's acceptance of the recent surge in long-term interest rates puts the economy at risk of a financial blowup and higher borrowing costs for consumers and companies.
The Federal Reserve is facing a tough decision on interest rates as some officials believe further rate increases are necessary to combat inflation, while others argue that the current rate tightening will continue to ease rising prices; however, the recent sell-off in government bonds could have a cooling effect on the economy, which may influence the Fed's decision.
The CoinDesk Market Index (CMI) declined by -11% in the past quarter, with Bitcoin outperforming by -10.9% and Ether underperforming at -12.5%; however, Bitcoin and Ether have still shown impressive gains of 64% and 41% respectively for the year, highlighting their resilience as top-performing assets. Regulatory pressure on alternative tokens continues to drive a bifurcation in the crypto market between Bitcoin and Ether and other digital asset protocols, while the computing and DeFi sectors were relative outperformers in Q3 2023. The reduced level of risk, lower volatility, and decreased correlation with traditional equities suggest a maturation of the market or market illiquidity. Rising bond yields and tightening financial conditions may pose headwinds for crypto price appreciation, but the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF could be a catalyst for breaking through these macroeconomic headwinds, enabling broader investor access and institutional adoption.
Bitcoin has decoupled from traditional equities such as the S&P 500, with its price trajectory no longer mirroring that of major indices, highlighting the changing dynamics between traditional financial markets and the cryptocurrency sector.
Investors are showing a preference for ether over bitcoin in a high interest rate environment, with ether futures ETFs experiencing low volumes and the ether-bitcoin ratio reaching its lowest point since July 2022. The underperformance of ether relative to bitcoin is attributed to the bear market and the potential for continued underperformance due to the higher interest rate environment. Bitcoin's status as a digital gold and its regulatory advantages also contribute to its favorability over ether.
The shrinking US money supply is driven by factors such as changes in Federal Reserve policy, rising interest rates, and financial innovation, which could have negative implications for the SPDR® S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and the broader financial landscape.
The S&P 500 has seen a strong bounce off its previous low, but it has yet to fully recover, and the recent rise in Treasury yields and geopolitical conflicts contribute to a cautious outlook on the market's future performance.
The S&P 500's record-breaking performance, driven by a handful of technology stocks, is causing concern among economists due to their inflated valuations and the high levels of Treasury debt yields, suggesting an imminent correction in the market.
The S&P 500 is at a crucial moment as it is caught between key technical levels, and the next phase of the bull market hinges on a breakout; year-end seasonality is expected to be positive for the stock market.
Bitcoin has seen a significant increase of over 9% in value, while the S&P 500 and the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index have both experienced a decrease.
Summary: The S&P 500 experienced a 2.4% decline last week, marking a 7.9% decrease from its high-water mark in July 2023, while bitcoin remains down 48% from its peak in October 2021, and solar energy stocks faced a significant setback due to rising interest rates.
The price of bitcoin has surged 25% in the past month, primarily during U.S. trading hours, signaling increased interest from U.S. institutions and investors due to the anticipated approval of a U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), according to crypto services provider Matrixport.
The expectation of regulatory approval for a spot bitcoin ETF has contributed to bitcoin's 20% surge in the past week, despite the decline in technology stocks, indicating a possible decoupling between bitcoin and U.S. equity markets. Traders are cautious about the upcoming FOMC meeting and its potential impact on the market.
