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Bitcoin Speculators Increasingly Pessimistic Amid Market Downturn, Data Shows

  • Nearly all Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) are currently at a loss with 97.5% in unrealized losses. Their aggregate cost basis is around $28,000.

  • STH "spenders" who are realizing losses have a lower cost basis than STH "holders" who are not selling. This suggests panic selling.

  • The shift from unrealized to realized losses among STHs points to a negative change in sentiment according to analytics firm Glassnode.

  • The current STH sentiment is the most negative since the FTX collapse.

  • Overall, the Bitcoin market is experiencing a meaningful deterioration in confidence among short-term speculators according to Glassnode's analysis.

cointelegraph.com
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### Summary The stock market and house prices are at risk of crashing, while Bitcoin has already fallen. Investors are concerned about rising interest rates, the Chinese property market's instability, and the overall economic outlook. ### Facts - The S&P 500 and FTSE 100 indexes have been declining, with the S&P 500 falling four percent over the last month and the FTSE 100 showing minimal progress. - The Evergrande Group, a major Chinese property giant, has filed for bankruptcy with significant liabilities, adding to concerns about the Chinese economy. - Youth unemployment in China is high and predictions of a crash worsen unless massive stimulus packages are implemented. - The UK property market is uncertain, with predictions of a potential 25 percent crash in house prices due to disappointing inflation figures and potential interest rate hikes. - Bitcoin has already experienced a ten percent drop in the last week, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market. - The copper price, often used as an economic indicator, has fallen 12.64 percent over the last six months, suggesting an economic slowdown. ### Other Points - Experts like Michael Burry and Jeremy Grantham are predicting a stock market crash, with Grantham even comparing it to the 1929 Wall Street Crash. - It is important not to put too much trust in doomsayers, as they have often been wrong in the past. - The author of the article is personally feeling gloomy about the economic outlook.
Major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, experienced a price crash following concerns about the Federal Reserve and the delay of a spot Bitcoin ETF decision by the SEC, sparking anticipation for upcoming ETF decisions by BlackRock and other asset managers.
Bitcoin (BTC) faces uncertainty and fear in the market as it struggles to recover from a 10% crash, with short-term holders experiencing increasing unrealized losses and on-chain transactions setting multiyear highs. Traders are cautious about the outlook, but historical patterns and upcoming events, such as the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, may provide opportunities for recovery.
Bitcoin experienced a significant correction with an 11.4% drop, but analysis of the market structure suggests that whales and market makers remain optimistic, with the derivatives market quickly absorbing the shock and options markets showing no signs of bearish sentiment.
Short-term holders of Bitcoin are currently experiencing unrealized losses, with 88.3% of their supply underwater, leading to increased selling pressure in the market and potential liquidation by these holders.
Former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal believes that Bitcoin may be on the verge of a massive rally, based on the historical volatility of the cryptocurrency dropping below 20, a level that has preceded significant price increases in the past. Pal also notes that Bitcoin's Bollinger Bands, a volatility indicator, are the tightest they have ever been, further indicating the potential for a strong upward movement. Ethereum is also highlighted as trading within a bullish pattern despite recent market corrections.
Long-term holders of Bitcoin are continuing to accumulate the cryptocurrency despite recent market volatility, indicating a bullish outlook for the future, according to analysts from Bitfinex. However, newer long-term holders who acquired their positions during the bear market are showing more unease and have exited their positions during price drops.
Bitcoin could experience a major market correction in September, potentially dropping by more than 16% based on historical performance and predictions by crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen.
Bitcoin investors may face a turbulent September, but analysts suggest looking towards mid-October for potentially positive market movements.
Bitcoin and major tokens have experienced losses as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delays key ETF decisions, dampening hopes of a long-term recovery.
Bitcoin bulls may be disappointed as a monthly technical indicator suggests a weakening of upward momentum, potentially leading to a long and drawn-out basing process.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are experiencing a decline as analysts predict further decreases ahead.
Bitcoin's price has fallen below its 200-week moving average, indicating a bearish trend, but historical data suggests that this could be a buying opportunity for patient investors.
New data from crypto analytics firm Santiment suggests that despite widespread uncertainty in the market, digital assets are indicating potential rallies, as periods following increased fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) tend to lead to price increases for cryptocurrencies.
Crypto analyst Jason Pizzino suggests that a reversal of the consumer confidence index (CCI) could indicate a rally for risk assets, including Bitcoin, in the next three to six months. Pizzino believes that Bitcoin is more likely to experience a modest move to key support levels rather than a significant collapse in price.
The recent decline in the price of Bitcoin has raised concerns of a larger market downtrend, with Ethereum and Ripple also at risk of falling if Bitcoin weakens further.
Investors are concerned about the downside potential of Bitcoin due to looming FTX liquidations and the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening, leading to a negative correlation between Bitcoin's price and implied volatility.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have rebounded from recent lows, but facing downside momentum and September worries, it may be difficult for them to maintain their recovery.
The price of bitcoin rebounds by 4.5% as fears around FTX liquidations ease and investors cover short positions, but uncertainty remains due to weakened momentum and lack of clear market catalysts.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies advanced on Friday, but a key technical indicator suggests that losses are likely coming.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are experiencing a decline in prices due to a strengthening dollar and risk-aversion, but there is hope for a rebound.
Bitcoin (BTC) price remains stable as investors continue to accumulate, while the composition of BTC investors is shifting towards long-term holders and away from short-term speculators.
Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range despite the fall in the S&P 500, indicating that cryptocurrency traders are not panicking and the supply is shifting to stronger hands.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remain stable or slightly higher despite turbulence in the stock market, but this calm may not last.
Investors are increasingly fearful due to a mix of factors including rising oil prices, expectations of higher interest rates, a sluggish Chinese economy, and the possibility of a US government shutdown, leading to concerns of a prolonged period of stagflation and a potential recession.
Fidelity Investments' global macro director believes that a recession could lead to a significant rally for Bitcoin, with the potential for prices to reach $96,210 by the end of 2025 if interest rates decline. He also suggests that Bitcoin's correlation with equities has decreased, making it a potential source of uncorrelated returns in the next market cycle.
Bitcoin experienced a significant surge in September despite resistance from the SEC, marking its first positive performance for the month since 2016, and investors are cautiously optimistic for a bullish October.
Investors are showing signs of stress as big down days become more frequent and rebounds are scarce, with options traders warning against getting too comfortable amidst the risks of a narrowly-averted US government shutdown, rising Treasury yields, concerns about Federal Reserve action on inflation, and an auto-worker strike.
Crypto strategist predicts that Bitcoin will enter a massive bull run and reach new all-time highs once it surpasses a key support level, but warns that bearish speculation from the stock market could decrease momentum.
Investors are likely to continue facing difficulties in the stock market as three headwinds, including high valuations and restrictive interest rates, persist, according to JPMorgan. The bank's cautious outlook is based on the surge in bond yields and the overhang of geopolitical risks, which resemble the conditions before the 2008 financial crisis. Additionally, the recent reading of sentiment indicators suggests that investors have entered a state of panic due to high interest rates.
Bitcoin could potentially face a 60% price drop, as liquidity remains negative and global rates continue to rise, according to Bloomberg Intelligence senior macro strategist Mike McGlone. He also suggests that a stock market drawdown related to a recession poses the biggest risk for the overall cryptocurrency sector.
Prominent venture capitalist Chris Burniske suggests that a phase of selling exhaustion in the cryptocurrency market may be approaching, presenting a potential buying opportunity despite prevailing fear; Burniske also highlights the possibility of Bitcoin and Ethereum dropping to lower price levels.
Bitcoin could face difficulties in the long term due to tightening liquidity in the current macroeconomic environment, according to crypto analyst Nicholas Merten. Merten believes that Bitcoin's price is heavily influenced by monetary policy and warns that if sentiment turns bearish, investors may start cashing out.
Fears surrounding the Federal Reserve's actions have caused panic among investors, leading to disorder in the bond market with the 10-year US Treasury yield reaching a 16-year high.
The possibility of a 50% crash in the S&P 500, a recession next year, and falling house prices are predicted by Jeremy Grantham, who also criticizes bitcoin as a scam and advises against investing in US stocks or real estate.
Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have lost momentum after a surge in 2023, but a leaked announcement from a major tech company may change the course.
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Bitcoin registered a loss of 11.1% in the third quarter of the year, defying recent positive developments in the crypto space, but there is hope for a recovery in the historically strong fourth quarter.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced a slight decline along with the wider market, but analysts are optimistic that the recent uptrend will persist.
Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Hamas and Israel, could lead to a short-term decline in riskier assets like bitcoin, as investors are concerned about the conflict spreading to oil-producing countries and impacting international trade. However, crypto markets have shown resilience in the face of geopolitical turmoil in the past, and investors should also monitor changes in the oil and energy markets to gauge the direction of bitcoin.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are experiencing a decline due to concerns about the impact of escalating violence in the Middle East, which stock investors are seemingly overlooking.
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Bitcoin's recent correction and fear dominating the market have led to decreased optimism among investors, as indicated by BTC derivatives metrics, suggesting a slim chance of the price breaking above $28,000 in the short term.
The crypto market experienced a significant downturn this week, with Ethereum being hit particularly hard, trading at its lowest point since March. Other major coins and tokens, including Toncoin, Solana, Ripple, Polygon, and Bitcoin Cash, also suffered losses. Only Bitcoin saw a relatively smaller decline.