The strong job market and rising wages are creating eager buyers in the housing market, making it a great time to sell your house.
The housing market is entering its slow season and home sales may be impacted by high mortgage rates, but home builder stocks could remain strong.
Homebuilders are thriving due to a chronic shortage of existing housing inventory, leading to increased home prices and strong sales, according to KB Home CEO Jeffrey Mezger. The lack of inventory is also reflected in the significant drop in active home listings, with only Austin returning to pre-pandemic levels, while other markets have experienced substantial declines. Despite rising mortgage rates, the scarcity of existing inventory has prevented a steep national home price decline.
The housing market has experienced significant changes, with high mortgage rates and low inventory leading to slower sales and longer time on the market, but experts predict that mortgage rates will eventually decrease and home prices will continue to appreciate, with no imminent crash expected; the market is expected to shift towards a more balanced state in the next five years, and the suburban market is predicted to remain strong, particularly in areas with rising populations.
Real estate investor Sean Terry predicts a "Black Swan" event in the US housing market within the next year due to affordability pressures caused by high interest rates and housing prices, which could lead to a market crash. However, experts argue that a crash like the one in 2008 is unlikely due to the current housing shortage and limited supply of homes. The future of the housing market will depend on factors such as economic stability, mortgage rates, and homebuilders' ability to increase supply.
In this article, the stock mentioned is KB Home (NYSE:KBH). The author's recommendation is to buy and hold the stock.
The author's core argument is that KB Home is well-positioned in the housing market, particularly because it serves first-time and second-time homebuyers, who represent a growing pool of potential buyers. The author also points out that KB Home has a strong balance sheet, generates significant cash flow, and has been reducing its debt and repurchasing shares.
Key information and data provided in the article include:
- KB Home's fiscal Q3 earnings, where it earned $1.80 on revenue of $1.59 billion, surpassing expectations by $0.38.
- The decline in KB Home's earnings and margins due to a 14% decrease in revenues and declining average sales prices.
- The decline in deliveries and sales prices, as well as the decline in homebuilding gross margins.
- The increase in net new orders and the stabilization of the backlog, indicating steady demand.
- The improvement in KB Home's balance sheet, reduction of debt, and focus on share repurchases.
- The favorable macro environment for KB Home, with the rise in millennials becoming homebuyers, supply constraints, and a significant housing shortage.
- The expectation of strong profits for the next few years and potential for double-digit returns.
- The current valuation of KB Home's shares and the potential upside.
Note: The article is an opinion piece by the author and not financial advice.
The United States housing market has seen a 21 percent decline in previously occupied home sales over the past year, continuing the slowdown caused by rising interest rates, while prices continue to rise despite the decrease in sales, leading to a shortage of affordable homes and worsening home affordability for the foreseeable future.
KB Home is focusing on customization and rate locks instead of using mortgage rate buydowns to attract buyers amidst rising interest rates and lower affordability in the housing market. CEO Jeffrey Mezger emphasized the importance of catering to the buyer's preferences and offering the best value for their money.
