The Housing Market Is Approaching Its Slow Season. Why Home Builder Stocks Might Not Be.
The housing market is entering its slow season and home sales may be impacted by high mortgage rates, but home builder stocks could remain strong.
Topics
Posted 9/3/2023, 8:00:00 AM
barrons.com
Relevant topic timeline:
A mild recession may benefit the housing market by leading to lower mortgage rates, more available supply, and potentially lower home prices.
High mortgage rates and tight inventory are slowing home sales in the D.C. region, leading to predictions of a slowdown in the housing market and the possibility of a market freeze if inflation and interest rates increase.
High mortgage rates, reaching their highest level in 21 years, are driving up costs for home buyers and creating a sluggish housing market, with little relief expected in the near term.
The current housing market is facing challenges due to rising interest rates and higher prices, leading to a slowdown in home sales, but the market is more resilient and better equipped to handle these fluctuations compared to the Global Financial Crisis, thanks to cautious lending practices and stricter regulations.
New home sales in the US increased by 4.4% in July, outperforming expectations and highlighting the continued demand for new construction due to a shortage of existing affordable homes. Despite rising mortgage rates, buyers are turning to new homes, causing a decline in sales in the resale market. However, as mortgage rates continue to rise, builder sentiment may be negatively impacted and prices may need to be adjusted to attract buyers.
The surge in mortgage rates has caused housing affordability to reach the lowest level since 2000, leading to a slow fall in the housing market and a potential dip in home prices, although the current market differs from the conditions that preceded the 2008 crash, with low housing inventory and a lack of risky mortgage products, making mortgage rates the key lever to improve affordability.
Fannie Mae economists predict that the U.S. housing market will remain unchanged regardless of whether the economy experiences a soft landing or enters a mild recession, with high mortgage interest rates and housing affordability issues continuing to impact the market. They anticipate that existing home sales will remain subdued, and while a recession may lead to a pullback in construction, a soft landing accompanied by higher mortgage rates could also result in slower housing construction and sales.
The strong job market and rising wages are creating eager buyers in the housing market, making it a great time to sell your house.
The housing market in 2024 is expected to remain challenging for both buyers and sellers, with high mortgage rates, steep home prices, and low inventory levels, but if mortgage rates cool as predicted, market activity should increase.
Better Home & Finance, a mortgage origination company, went public at a bad time as mortgage rates rise, causing the stock to drop by 93%.
The mortgage market is influenced by various factors such as interest rates, housing demands, evolving borrower preferences, technological advancements, and regulatory shifts, and it is important for potential homebuyers and those navigating the mortgage process to stay informed about these trends and challenges.
Homebuyers' purchasing power has been negatively impacted by rising mortgage rates, which averaged 7.2% in August, the highest level since 2001, resulting in a decline in existing home sales and a shift towards new-construction homes.
Shares in online mortgage lender Better Home & Finance Holding rebounded slightly after a poor debut, with the company backed by SoftBank seeing a 4.3% increase in its stock price following a merger with a blank-check company, although it still finished the day down 93.4%; CEO Vishal Garg believes the company's technology will drive long-term growth and create shareholder value when interest rates normalize.
Prospective home buyers can still secure a lower mortgage rate in today's market by improving their credit score, shopping around for lenders, considering an adjustable-rate mortgage, buying mortgage points, locking in a rate, and making a large down payment.
Home prices in the U.S. rose for the fifth consecutive month in June, despite high mortgage rates, with national prices increasing by 0.9% and only down 0.02% from their peak in June 2022, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index. However, there were significant regional differences, with cities on the West Coast experiencing some of the biggest declines. The housing market continues to face challenges due to low inventory and slow new construction.
Stocks are expected to decline as mortgage rates soar, causing many Americans to be unable to move and resulting in a bubble in home prices, according to economist David Rosenberg.
Buyers of newly built homes are enjoying lower mortgage rates, as home builders are allocating a portion of the sale proceeds to permanently buy down the rates, leading to higher new home sales.
US housing inventory continues to be tight, with a 9.2% decrease in the number of homes for sale compared to last year, marking the fourth consecutive month of annual declines, although total inventory has shown monthly increases and is up 19% since January.
Home prices, which had been steadily rising since January, may be starting to decline again due to weakening month-to-month gains and higher mortgage rates.
Low inventory, high mortgage rates, and high prices have created a difficult housing market, making it challenging for house hunters to break into the market and leading to a substantial decline in purchases by real estate investors.
Average 30-year mortgage rates are still elevated at 6.94% in August, but they are expected to come down by the end of the year; however, a significant drop that will boost homebuying demand is not likely until 2024 or 2025, but there are advantages to buying a home even when rates are high, such as less competition.
Homebuilders are thriving due to a chronic shortage of existing housing inventory, leading to increased home prices and strong sales, according to KB Home CEO Jeffrey Mezger. The lack of inventory is also reflected in the significant drop in active home listings, with only Austin returning to pre-pandemic levels, while other markets have experienced substantial declines. Despite rising mortgage rates, the scarcity of existing inventory has prevented a steep national home price decline.
The housing market has experienced significant changes, with high mortgage rates and low inventory leading to slower sales and longer time on the market, but experts predict that mortgage rates will eventually decrease and home prices will continue to appreciate, with no imminent crash expected; the market is expected to shift towards a more balanced state in the next five years, and the suburban market is predicted to remain strong, particularly in areas with rising populations.
Mortgage rates have risen significantly, but while higher-end homes have experienced price declines, lower-end homes have remained relatively unaffected, leading to a divergence in the housing market.
The current housing market has defied expectations of a downturn in real estate prices caused by surging mortgage rates, with prices and demand remaining strong due to increasing household formation among baby boomers, according to a Wall Street economist.
The housing market activity remains subdued due to fluctuating mortgage rates and low housing supply, leading to decreased demand and affordability challenges for potential homebuyers.
Mortgage rates remain elevated, slowing housing market activity, and while home prices are not likely to fall significantly, rates are projected to decrease in 2023 and 2024.
Real estate investor Sean Terry predicts a "Black Swan" event in the US housing market within the next year due to affordability pressures caused by high interest rates and housing prices, which could lead to a market crash. However, experts argue that a crash like the one in 2008 is unlikely due to the current housing shortage and limited supply of homes. The future of the housing market will depend on factors such as economic stability, mortgage rates, and homebuilders' ability to increase supply.
Hong Kong's property market has slowed down, but CK Assets Holdings attracted thousands of homebuyers with a 16% discount on residential flats.
Utah's housing market experienced volatility and a contraction due to the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to a decline in home prices and affordability issues, but experts do not predict a crash due to the state's strong economy and growth, although a housing shortage is expected to worsen by 2024. Interest rates have caused fluctuations in homebuilding activity, and despite a dip in housing prices, affordability remains a challenge for many. Predictions for the housing market include a modest price correction, an increase in homebuilding activity and real estate sales in 2024, and a continuing housing shortage. Interest rates will play a crucial role in determining the future of the market.
Housing affordability is expected to worsen due to the delayed impact of higher mortgage rates, with home prices predicted to rise 0.7% year over year and reach a new record high, according to Morgan Stanley.
Buyers in the housing market are resilient as they face low inventory and high prices, with nearly half of homes selling above list price and many making multiple offers to secure their dream homes, according to a survey by Bright MLS.
US homebuilders are losing confidence in the housing market as mortgage rates remain high, causing a decline in buyer purchasing power and a negative outlook for the industry.
The Greater Boston housing market experienced a slow month in August, with home sales dropping to their lowest point for the month since 2010, primarily due to higher interest rates and a shortage of available homes for sale, leading to increased competition and higher prices for buyers.
The U.S. housing market is facing a shortage of homes, which is driving up prices and making it difficult for buyers to find affordable options, and the problem may get worse as builders become less confident and hesitant to construct new homes due to high mortgage rates and construction costs.
The pace of new construction in the housing market slowed in August due to high mortgage rates and weakening demand, with housing starts falling to the lowest level since 2020, although building permits increased month over month.
Despite a recent slump, research firms including Freddie Mac, Zillow, and the National Association of Realtors predict that home prices will continue to rise in 2024 due to a shortage of housing inventory and strong demand, with NAR forecasting a 2.6% increase. However, Moody's Analytics and Morgan Stanley expect home prices to slightly decrease in 2024 due to declining affordability and increased housing supply.
The United States housing market has seen a 21 percent decline in previously occupied home sales over the past year, continuing the slowdown caused by rising interest rates, while prices continue to rise despite the decrease in sales, leading to a shortage of affordable homes and worsening home affordability for the foreseeable future.
The average long-term U.S. mortgage rate has increased, posing challenges for homebuyers in an already unaffordable housing market.