A mild recession could actually be good for the housing market
A mild recession may benefit the housing market by leading to lower mortgage rates, more available supply, and potentially lower home prices.
Topics
Posted 8/21/2023, 1:42:00 PM
businessinsider.com
Relevant topic timeline:
High mortgage rates, reaching their highest level in 21 years, are driving up costs for home buyers and creating a sluggish housing market, with little relief expected in the near term.
Despite recent positive economic indicators, experts warn that a recession may still be on the horizon due to the lagged effects of interest rate hikes, increased debt, and a slowing manufacturing sector, cautioning investors not to become complacent.
The current housing market is facing challenges due to rising interest rates and higher prices, leading to a slowdown in home sales, but the market is more resilient and better equipped to handle these fluctuations compared to the Global Financial Crisis, thanks to cautious lending practices and stricter regulations.
The U.S. housing market is facing dire consequences due to high mortgage rates, a housing supply shortage, and a lack of confidence in the Federal Reserve's actions, according to market expert James Iuorio.
Despite the optimism from some economists and Wall Street experts, economist Oren Klachkin believes that elevated interest rates, restrictive Federal Reserve policy, and tight lending standards will lead to a mild recession in late 2023 due to decreased consumer spending and slow hiring, although he acknowledges that the definition of a recession may not be met due to some industries thriving while others struggle.
The surge in mortgage rates has caused housing affordability to reach the lowest level since 2000, leading to a slow fall in the housing market and a potential dip in home prices, although the current market differs from the conditions that preceded the 2008 crash, with low housing inventory and a lack of risky mortgage products, making mortgage rates the key lever to improve affordability.
Fannie Mae economists predict that the U.S. housing market will remain unchanged regardless of whether the economy experiences a soft landing or enters a mild recession, with high mortgage interest rates and housing affordability issues continuing to impact the market. They anticipate that existing home sales will remain subdued, and while a recession may lead to a pullback in construction, a soft landing accompanied by higher mortgage rates could also result in slower housing construction and sales.
Recession fears return as a key business survey shows a significant contraction in the UK economy, signaling the detrimental effects of interest rate rises on businesses and heightening the risk of a renewed economic downturn.
The strong job market and rising wages are creating eager buyers in the housing market, making it a great time to sell your house.
A global recession is looming due to rising interest rates and the cost of living crisis, leading economists to warn of a severe downturn in the post-Covid rebound.
The housing market in 2024 is expected to remain challenging for both buyers and sellers, with high mortgage rates, steep home prices, and low inventory levels, but if mortgage rates cool as predicted, market activity should increase.
The mortgage market is influenced by various factors such as interest rates, housing demands, evolving borrower preferences, technological advancements, and regulatory shifts, and it is important for potential homebuyers and those navigating the mortgage process to stay informed about these trends and challenges.
Prospective home buyers can still secure a lower mortgage rate in today's market by improving their credit score, shopping around for lenders, considering an adjustable-rate mortgage, buying mortgage points, locking in a rate, and making a large down payment.
The Federal Reserve's monetary tightening policy has led to a surge in mortgage rates, potentially damaging both the demand and supply in the housing market, according to Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz.
The U.S. economy may achieve a soft landing, as strong labor market, cooling inflation, and consumer savings support economic health and mitigate the risk of a recession, despite the rise in interest rates.
The housing market is entering its slow season and home sales may be impacted by high mortgage rates, but home builder stocks could remain strong.
Mortgage rates above 7% are worsening the affordability crisis, limiting younger buyers' ability to purchase homes and causing millennials to lag behind previous generations in homeownership, as rising rates and prices erode buying power.
Mortgage rates have been decreasing and could fall further this month if inflation continues to come down.
The housing market has experienced significant changes, with high mortgage rates and low inventory leading to slower sales and longer time on the market, but experts predict that mortgage rates will eventually decrease and home prices will continue to appreciate, with no imminent crash expected; the market is expected to shift towards a more balanced state in the next five years, and the suburban market is predicted to remain strong, particularly in areas with rising populations.
Mortgage rates have risen significantly, but while higher-end homes have experienced price declines, lower-end homes have remained relatively unaffected, leading to a divergence in the housing market.
The US economy is predicted to enter a recession by spring, leading to a 25% or more crash in the S&P 500, according to economist David Rosenberg, who warns that American consumers are nearing their spending limits and rising home prices reflect a weak housing market.
The Federal Reserve may be the cause of rising housing prices and the low supply of existing homes, which could lead to increased inflation and concerns about the Fed's response to the cost of living. Lowering interest rates and unlocking the supply of homes could help alleviate the issue.
The current housing market has defied expectations of a downturn in real estate prices caused by surging mortgage rates, with prices and demand remaining strong due to increasing household formation among baby boomers, according to a Wall Street economist.
The housing market activity remains subdued due to fluctuating mortgage rates and low housing supply, leading to decreased demand and affordability challenges for potential homebuyers.
The aging population in America, particularly the boomers, is driving up housing demand and prices, leading to an affordability crisis and locking out middle-income buyers in the market.
Mortgage rates remain elevated, slowing housing market activity, and while home prices are not likely to fall significantly, rates are projected to decrease in 2023 and 2024.
The odds of the U.S. entering a recession by mid-2024 have decreased, but certain regions, such as the West and South, are still more vulnerable due to rapid economic growth, high home prices, and inflation, according to Moody's Analytics. However, a severe downturn is unlikely, and the Midwest and Northeast are less susceptible to a pullback. Overall, the chance of a recession has declined nationwide, but there is still a risk for some metro areas, such as Austin, Boise, Ogden, and Tampa.
Utah's housing market experienced volatility and a contraction due to the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to a decline in home prices and affordability issues, but experts do not predict a crash due to the state's strong economy and growth, although a housing shortage is expected to worsen by 2024. Interest rates have caused fluctuations in homebuilding activity, and despite a dip in housing prices, affordability remains a challenge for many. Predictions for the housing market include a modest price correction, an increase in homebuilding activity and real estate sales in 2024, and a continuing housing shortage. Interest rates will play a crucial role in determining the future of the market.
The Greater Boston housing market experienced a slow month in August, with home sales dropping to their lowest point for the month since 2010, primarily due to higher interest rates and a shortage of available homes for sale, leading to increased competition and higher prices for buyers.