Home prices may be on the verge of cooling off
Home prices, which had been steadily rising since January, may be starting to decline again due to weakening month-to-month gains and higher mortgage rates.
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Posted 9/1/2023, 6:42:16 PM
nbcnews.com
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New home sales in the US increased by 4.4% in July, outperforming expectations and highlighting the continued demand for new construction due to a shortage of existing affordable homes. Despite rising mortgage rates, buyers are turning to new homes, causing a decline in sales in the resale market. However, as mortgage rates continue to rise, builder sentiment may be negatively impacted and prices may need to be adjusted to attract buyers.
The surge in mortgage rates has caused housing affordability to reach the lowest level since 2000, leading to a slow fall in the housing market and a potential dip in home prices, although the current market differs from the conditions that preceded the 2008 crash, with low housing inventory and a lack of risky mortgage products, making mortgage rates the key lever to improve affordability.
Mortgage rates topping 7% have led to a significant drop in mortgage applications for home purchases, with last week seeing the smallest volume in 28 years. The increase in rates, driven by concerns of high inflation, has priced out many potential buyers and contributed to low housing supply and high home prices. As a result, sales of previously owned homes have declined, and homeowners are reluctant to sell their properties due to the higher rates. Some buyers are turning to adjustable-rate mortgages to manage the increased costs.
The inventory of existing homes has been declining since the peak of the housing bubble in July 2007, with technology playing a key role in speeding up the processes involved in selling a home and reducing the time it takes for a home to sit in inventory.
Sales of existing homes have declined due to the rise in mortgage rates, but the demand for new homes is increasing as buyers are hesitant to sell their current homes with low-interest mortgages.
Despite high interest rates, house prices in the US have not declined, leading to frustration and confusion in the housing market as buyers face fierce competition and limited inventory.
Zillow predicts that US home prices will continue to rise, with a 6.5% increase over the next 12 months, driven by tight inventory levels and high demand, while other firms like Moody's Analytics and Morgan Stanley believe there may be a decline in home prices by the end of 2024.
Home prices in the US climbed for the fifth consecutive month in June due to high demand, low supply, and increased mortgage rates, with the S&P Case-Shiller US National Composite home price index rising by 0.7% compared to May.
Home prices in the US have continued to rise for the fifth consecutive month, reaching near all-time highs, although high mortgage rates could impact further price gains for the rest of the year. Cities in the Midwest and New England saw the most notable price acceleration, while cities in the West experienced year-over-year price drops. Low inventory remains a challenge, with few homeowners wanting to sell, leading to higher prices and increased competition for available homes. In contrast, the rental market is offering more affordability as rental inventory increases.
Stocks are expected to decline as mortgage rates soar, causing many Americans to be unable to move and resulting in a bubble in home prices, according to economist David Rosenberg.
British home prices are expected to fall by 4% this year due to high interest rates and living costs, despite the shortage of supply, according to a Reuters poll, with potential buyers being kept out of the property market; however, prices are expected to recover from 2024.
Home prices in the US hit another all-time high in July, but month-to-month gains weakened and suggest a potential slowdown, likely due to rising mortgage rates and increased listings.
The number of homes for sale in the US continued to decline in August, down by 9.2% compared to the previous year and 45% below pre-pandemic levels, leading to higher home prices and affordability concerns.
The housing market is entering its slow season and home sales may be impacted by high mortgage rates, but home builder stocks could remain strong.
Rapidly falling house prices have caused a "cost of owning crisis," with tens of thousands of homeowners falling into negative equity over the past year, making it difficult to sell or remortgage properties. Experts predict that more households will face difficulties as house prices continue to decline, with the Government's tax and spending watchdog expecting a 10% fall in prices. However, there are expectations of a rebound in house prices in the future, particularly for those intending to live in their homes for several years.
Average 30-year mortgage rates are still elevated at 6.94% in August, but they are expected to come down by the end of the year; however, a significant drop that will boost homebuying demand is not likely until 2024 or 2025, but there are advantages to buying a home even when rates are high, such as less competition.
Homebuilders are thriving due to a chronic shortage of existing housing inventory, leading to increased home prices and strong sales, according to KB Home CEO Jeffrey Mezger. The lack of inventory is also reflected in the significant drop in active home listings, with only Austin returning to pre-pandemic levels, while other markets have experienced substantial declines. Despite rising mortgage rates, the scarcity of existing inventory has prevented a steep national home price decline.
Mortgage rates have been decreasing and could fall further this month if inflation continues to come down.
The housing market has experienced significant changes, with high mortgage rates and low inventory leading to slower sales and longer time on the market, but experts predict that mortgage rates will eventually decrease and home prices will continue to appreciate, with no imminent crash expected; the market is expected to shift towards a more balanced state in the next five years, and the suburban market is predicted to remain strong, particularly in areas with rising populations.
The demand for mortgages in the US has dropped to its lowest level since 1996, with both purchase and refinance applications falling due to low housing inventory and elevated mortgage rates.
Mortgage rates have risen significantly, but while higher-end homes have experienced price declines, lower-end homes have remained relatively unaffected, leading to a divergence in the housing market.
The current housing market has defied expectations of a downturn in real estate prices caused by surging mortgage rates, with prices and demand remaining strong due to increasing household formation among baby boomers, according to a Wall Street economist.
The housing market activity remains subdued due to fluctuating mortgage rates and low housing supply, leading to decreased demand and affordability challenges for potential homebuyers.
Mortgage rates remain elevated, slowing housing market activity, and while home prices are not likely to fall significantly, rates are projected to decrease in 2023 and 2024.
Rates on 30-year mortgages have decreased, reaching their lowest point since September 1st, after dropping nearly a quarter percentage point from their 22-year high recorded last week.
The Greater Boston housing market experienced a slow month in August, with home sales dropping to their lowest point for the month since 2010, primarily due to higher interest rates and a shortage of available homes for sale, leading to increased competition and higher prices for buyers.
Home prices in California reached a 15-month high in August 2023, attributed to rising mortgage rates and a shortage of homes on the market, but the market is expected to improve in the last quarter of the year as interest rates ease, according to the California Association of Realtors.
US home building declined in August, with housing starts dropping to the lowest level since June 2020 due to elevated mortgage rates and limited inventory, despite an increase in building permits.
U.S. home price growth increased to 2.5% year-over-year in July, with Miami, St. Louis, and Detroit driving the growth, while 11 states saw annual home price declines, according to CoreLogic's latest home price index data. Rising mortgage rates and a lack of inventory are putting pressure on potential homebuyers, and pending home sales have seen slight upticks, particularly in the West and South regions.
Despite a recent slump, research firms including Freddie Mac, Zillow, and the National Association of Realtors predict that home prices will continue to rise in 2024 due to a shortage of housing inventory and strong demand, with NAR forecasting a 2.6% increase. However, Moody's Analytics and Morgan Stanley expect home prices to slightly decrease in 2024 due to declining affordability and increased housing supply.
Home prices continued to rise in August due to low inventory and high mortgage rates, causing a drop in home sales, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors.
The United States housing market has seen a 21 percent decline in previously occupied home sales over the past year, continuing the slowdown caused by rising interest rates, while prices continue to rise despite the decrease in sales, leading to a shortage of affordable homes and worsening home affordability for the foreseeable future.
Existing home sales fell 0.7% in August due to limited supply caused by higher mortgage rates, leading to rising home prices despite lower sales, according to the National Association of Realtors.