### Summary
China's central bank has announced that it will coordinate financial support to address local government debt issues, aiming to stabilize the economy and reassure investors amidst concerns of a property crisis spillover.
### Facts
- 🏦 China's central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), will coordinate financial support to resolve local government debt risks.
- 🏢 China's property crisis is deepening and posing risks to the financial system.
- 💰 China unexpectedly lowered key interest rates and is expected to cut prime loan rates on Monday.
- 💼 Financial departments are urged to coordinate support, prevent debt risks, strengthen risk monitoring, and avoid systemic risk.
- 📜 China's Politburo has reiterated its focus on preventing local government debt risks.
- 💸 Bloomberg reported that China plans to offer local governments a combined 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) in bond issuance quotas for refinancing.
- 🔍 Analysts suggest a coordinated rescue package could involve additional funding, refinancing channels, debt swaps, payment extensions, and debt restructurings.
- 💵 Debt-laden municipalities represent a major risk to China's economy and financial stability.
- 📉 The property sector slump has worsened local government finances and caused developers to default on debts.
- 🤝 Fitch Ratings expects the central government to avoid outright bailouts to maintain debt reduction efforts.
- 👥 The joint meeting attended by PBOC officials urges banks to increase lending for the real economy.
- 💳 The PBOC will optimize credit policies for the property sector and strongly support small firms, technology innovation, and the manufacturing sector.
- 💼 Many consumers and companies are reluctant to spend or borrow due to the uncertain economic climate.
- 📉 New bank lending in China fell to a 14-year low in July.
### Summary
China's central bank will coordinate financial support to address local government debt problems and prevent systemic risk, as concerns grow over the impact of the country's property crisis on the financial system.
### Facts
- China's central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), will coordinate financial support and tools to prevent and resolve local government debt risks.
- China's deepening property crisis has raised concerns of a spillover into the financial system.
- China unexpectedly lowered interest rates last week and is expected to cut prime loan rates to stimulate economic activity.
- The Politburo has emphasized its focus on preventing local government debt risks but has not announced specific plans yet.
- China may offer local governments 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) in bond issuance quotas for refinancing.
- A coordinated rescue package could involve additional funding, debt swaps, payment extensions, and debt restructurings.
- Debt-laden municipalities pose a major risk to China's economy and financial stability.
- Fitch Ratings expects the central government to avoid outright bailouts of troubled municipalities.
- The central bank urged banks to increase lending and optimize credit policies for the property sector, small firms, technology innovation, and the manufacturing sector.
- However, consumer and company spending and borrowing remain low due to economic uncertainty.
- New bank lending in July fell to a 14-year low.
### Summary
Chinese financial regulators have promised to implement additional measures to address the challenges posed by local government debt and the struggling property sector, which is currently one of the largest risks to the country's economy.
### Facts
- 🏢 Chinese financial regulators are determined to tackle the issues surrounding local government debt and the property sector.
- 📉 The property sector is considered to be one of the major risks to China's economy.
- 🏗️ Country Garden, China's largest private developer, has further added to the woes of the already struggling property sector.
- 📊 Financial agencies have been instructed to coordinate and provide support to local governments in their efforts to mitigate debt risks.
### Summary
House price inflation in Britain slowed in June, with the exception of London, as high mortgage rates deter buyers. Meanwhile, in the US, policymakers are divided over the need for more interest rate hikes, and China's central bank cut a key interest rate due to economic risks.
### Facts
- 💰 Average UK house prices increased by 1.7% in June, down from 1.8% in May, with London being the only region where property prices fell by 0.6%.
- 💸 Policymakers in the US are divided over the need for more interest rate hikes, with "some participants" concerned about the risks of raising rates too far, while "most" officials prioritize battling inflation.
- 🇨🇳 China's central bank unexpectedly cut a key interest rate, the one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF), by 15 basis points to 2.5%, and also lowered the seven-day reverse repo rate to 1.8%.
- 📉 The rate cuts in China were implemented due to a deteriorating property market, weak consumer spending, and sluggish economic data, including trade and consumer price numbers as well as record-low credit growth.
### Summary
China is expected to cut lending benchmarks, including the mortgage reference rate, to revive credit demand and support the struggling property sector.
### Facts
- 🏦 China is predicted to lower lending benchmarks at the monthly fixing, including the loan prime rate (LPR).
- 📉 All participants in a survey of 35 market watchers anticipate cuts to both the one-year LPR and the five-year LPR.
- 📊 The majority of participants expect a 15-basis-point cut to the one-year LPR, while the remaining forecast a 10 bp reduction.
- 📈 Meanwhile, 94% of respondents predict a reduction of at least 15 bp to the five-year LPR, which serves as the mortgage reference rate.
- 💰 Market expectations for further monetary easing are driven by declining credit lending and increasing deflationary pressure.
- 🏠 The central bank has promised to adjust and optimize property policies to address the deepening crisis in the property market.
- 📱 Analysts believe that the central bank may also implement reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and balance sheet expansion to manage risks in key sectors.
Source: [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/chinas-loan-benchmarks-face-big-cut-next-month-fixing-poll-2022-10-28/)
### Summary
Foreign banks are lowering their China forecasts as the property sector shows increasing signs of distress with missed payments by major developers.
### Facts
- 💰 Property contagion concerns are rising as foreign banks revise their China forecasts downwards.
- 💵 Developer Country Garden has missed payments on two dollar-denominated bonds.
- 💸 Zhongzhi Group, one of China's largest trust companies, has missed payments on multiple financial products.
China's central bank has cut the main benchmark interest rate in an attempt to address falling apartment prices, weak consumer spending, and broad debt troubles, but the reduction was smaller than expected, signaling the potential ineffectiveness of traditional tools to stimulate the economy.
Foreign banks are lowering their China forecasts due to signs of distress in the property sector, with missed payments by developer Country Garden and trust company Zhongzhi Group contributing to rising concerns.
China's economy is facing a downward spiral due to a crisis in the debt-laden property sector, prompting seven city banks to reduce their growth forecasts for the country; concerns include falling into deflation, high unemployment rates, and the need for more proactive government support.
Main Topic: Mortgage interest rates and their impact on homeownership
Key Points:
1. Mortgage interest rates have climbed to the highest level since November 2000, making homeownership less affordable for potential buyers.
2. Rising bond yields, increased supply of Treasury debt, and concerns about inflation are contributing to higher mortgage rates.
3. As a result, the U.S. housing market is becoming increasingly unaffordable, with the median home sale price continuing to rise.
China's decision not to cut its five-year loan prime rate to revive the real estate sector and boost the economy is expected to have a limited impact and further weaken confidence, according to economists.
China's big five state-owned banks are expected to see a decline in revenue and narrower net interest margins as they face challenges such as low credit demand and pressure to support the economy amid a debt crisis in the property sector.
Mortgage rates topping 7% have led to a significant drop in mortgage applications for home purchases, with last week seeing the smallest volume in 28 years. The increase in rates, driven by concerns of high inflation, has priced out many potential buyers and contributed to low housing supply and high home prices. As a result, sales of previously owned homes have declined, and homeowners are reluctant to sell their properties due to the higher rates. Some buyers are turning to adjustable-rate mortgages to manage the increased costs.
Global investors are urging China to increase spending in order to revive its struggling economy and address the deepening property crisis, as modest interest rate cuts and vague promises of support have failed to restore confidence in the market. Investors are demanding more government stimulus before considering a return, and the lack of a policy response from Beijing has raised concerns among fund managers. The wishlist of investors includes increased government spending, particularly for local governments and banks, as well as measures to address the property sector crisis and improve communication regarding private business interests.
China is implementing measures to boost household spending, ease property policies, increase car purchases, improve conditions for private businesses, and bolster financial markets in an effort to revive the economy's recovery and improve the business environment.
China's cabinet has approved guidelines for the planning and construction of affordable housing in an effort to support the struggling property sector and promote the healthy development of the market. Additionally, the central bank has announced measures to relax residential housing loan rules to boost loan applications and house purchases, while emphasizing that houses are for living in rather than speculation.
Prospective home buyers can still secure a lower mortgage rate in today's market by improving their credit score, shopping around for lenders, considering an adjustable-rate mortgage, buying mortgage points, locking in a rate, and making a large down payment.
China's largest banks are preparing to cut interest rates on existing mortgages and deposits in an effort to stimulate consumer spending and support economic growth; the move is part of the government's targeted measures to alleviate pressure on lenders' profit margins and encourage investment in the stock market.
China's property crisis, led by embattled property giants like Evergrande, is causing devastating consequences for small businesses and suppliers who are owed large sums of money, putting both market confidence and debt repayments at risk. The crisis has affected the entire industry and could worsen if immediate actions are not taken to prevent contagion and spillover fears. The Chinese government is urged to abandon restrictive measures on real estate credit, carry out bankruptcy proceedings for developers with capital-outflow problems, and stop intervening in the market to stabilize home prices. The outlook for Chinese developers is deteriorating, particularly for distressed developers, while state-owned developers have a stable outlook. The Chinese housing market is facing a severe crisis that is worse than Japan's market in the early 1990s, posing challenges in filling the gap in spending left by the collapsing housing market.
Mortgage payments in the US are at their highest since the mid-1980s, making housing deeply unaffordable, but surprisingly, rising mortgage rates have not led to a decline in house prices as supply of properties has fallen almost in lockstep with demand and locked-in homeowners have invested more in fixing up their current homes, leading to a robust housing market despite the economic challenges.
China's economic slowdown is being caused by a property market downturn, softening demand for exports, and low household spending, which poses risks to financial stability and could lead to deflation and deeper debt problems. Economists are uncertain if the government's current measures, like interest rate cuts, will be enough to boost consumption and meet growth targets. Structural reforms and measures to increase household consumption are needed to address the imbalance in the economy.
China has lowered requirements for homebuyers in an attempt to revive its struggling property market and address the financial crisis.
China is planning to relax home-purchase restrictions and implement new measures to address the debt crisis in its property sector, which accounts for a quarter of its economy, in an effort to boost consumer demand.
Chinese homebuyers remain skeptical about entering the property market despite the Beijing government's measures to revive the economy, including lower mortgage rates, due to concerns about the slowing economy and the deepening crisis in the debt-ridden property sector.
The authorities in Beijing and Shanghai are implementing measures to ease mortgage lending rules in an effort to stimulate a slowing housing market, including allowing first-home buyers to enjoy preferential mortgage rates regardless of their previous credit records. This move is expected to drive home sales in the short term, but the long-term impact is uncertain due to low consumer confidence in the face of economic uncertainty.
China's relief measures to support the property sector have spurred a home-buying spree in Beijing and Shanghai, with transaction volumes in both cities increasing significantly, indicating robust housing demand; however, concerns persist that this demand may not be sustained due to other restrictions and a faltering growth outlook.
China is considering further easing measures in the property market and increasing fiscal support for infrastructure investment to boost economic growth in the fourth quarter, as sluggish demand remains a challenge.
Five major state banks in China, including ICBC and China Construction Bank, will lower interest rates on existing mortgages for first-home loans as part of support measures to aid homebuyers and stabilize the property sector.
China is showing signs of a balance-sheet recession similar to Japan's, with accumulating debt and falling house prices, but there are key differences that suggest it may not face the same fate. State-owned enterprises and property developers account for much of China's debt, and households have low debt relative to their assets. However, the Chinese government's reluctance to increase spending could prolong the recession.
The struggling real estate sector in China, due to a current crisis and government regulations, is impacting consumer spending and causing Chinese tourists to be slow in returning to international travel. As Chinese homeowners prioritize savings and cut back on spending, global tourism destinations are experiencing a decline in Chinese visitors, resulting in a forecasted decrease of nearly 70% in China's outbound travel spending this year.
China's economy is facing challenges due to its real estate crisis and high levels of mortgage debt, but the government is hesitant to provide fiscal stimulus or redistribute wealth, instead aiming to rely on lending to avoid a potential recession. Banks have cut interest rates and reserve requirements, but it is unlikely to stimulate borrowing. However, economists predict that policymakers will intensify efforts in the coming months, such as changing the definition of first-time home buyers and implementing property easing measures, to address the economic downturn.
Chinese commercial banks are concerned that the central bank's recent cut to mortgage rates will not be enough to prevent a surge in mortgage prepayments, which could squeeze bank margins.
UK lenders are expected to reduce mortgage rates following the Bank of England's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, potentially leading to a mortgage price war among banks and building societies. However, consumer champion Martin Lewis warns that attractive fixed-rate savings accounts may soon have lower rates.
China's urbanization drive is slowing down, which is expected to further impact the struggling property sector that has been plagued by debt problems and declining consumer confidence. Managing the excess housing supply and diversifying the economy away from reliance on the property sector are crucial for a healthier Chinese economy.
Major Chinese banks have reduced rates for outstanding home loans in an attempt to stimulate demand in the country's troubled property sector, but analysts doubt that the cuts will be sufficient to boost demand due to low consumer confidence and income expectations.
China's economic outlook, particularly for the real estate sector, is expected to become clearer in the last three months of the year, with potential government support and loosening of restrictions to stabilize the housing market and allow the economy to recover fully by mid-2024. However, economists predict that real estate growth will remain weak and prices may fall gradually, as significant price declines could have adverse social consequences.
The strain from interest rate hikes is starting to impact the real estate market, particularly in Germany and London, as well as the Chinese property sector; corporate debt defaults are increasing globally; banking stress remains a concern, especially regarding smaller banks and their exposure to commercial real estate; and the Bank of Japan's tighter monetary policy could lead to a sharp unwind of investments, potentially impacting global markets.
China's property market blowup, which has led to major developers struggling and low housing sales, may not necessarily result in a financial crisis due to the unique characteristics of China's housing market and Beijing's control over the financial system, but it is expected to cause significant damage to bank balance sheets and potentially lead to widespread financial turbulence if support is not provided to local governments and small lenders.
Many homeowners in Canada are expected to face financial pain as their mortgage comes up for renewal, with borrowers expected to see significant increases in their mortgage payments due to higher interest rates, particularly for those with fixed rates or variable rates but fixed monthly payments, according to the Bank of Canada; however, banks and lenders are responding by stretching out amortizations to reduce monthly payments, which is raising concerns about extended mortgage terms and how quickly homeowners build equity in their homes.
Housing rates have increased, pricing potential homebuyers out of the market, but homeowners with low-interest mortgages can take advantage by putting their extra funds into high-yield savings accounts or CDs that offer greater returns.
Rising mortgage rates are impacting home affordability, which has been declining since early 2021, causing some sellers to reduce their asking prices, but the lack of available properties remains a challenge for most buyers.
The World Bank has lowered its GDP growth estimate for China in 2024 due to elevated debt and weakness in the property sector, which has been hit by a downturn leading to unfinished homes and a decline in housing prices. While the impact on the overall economy may be limited, smaller regional banks and local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) are at higher risk. Policymakers have signaled a shift in their approach to the property market, and the long-term prospects of the sector may be hindered by demographic factors and a high rate of home ownership. However, experts believe that real estate will remain an important industry in the future.
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