Beijing needs to provide clarity on its economic plans and the national security crackdown in order to rebuild confidence in the future trajectory of China and address uncertainties, according to the head of a European business lobby in China.
Global investors are urging China to increase spending in order to revive its struggling economy and address the deepening property crisis, as modest interest rate cuts and vague promises of support have failed to restore confidence in the market. Investors are demanding more government stimulus before considering a return, and the lack of a policy response from Beijing has raised concerns among fund managers. The wishlist of investors includes increased government spending, particularly for local governments and banks, as well as measures to address the property sector crisis and improve communication regarding private business interests.
China faces challenges in rebalancing its economy towards increased consumer spending due to the economic growth model that relies heavily on investment in property, infrastructure, and industry, as well as the reluctance of households to spend and the limited social safety net; implementing demand-side measures would require difficult decisions and potential short-term pain for businesses and the government sector.
China is implementing measures to boost household spending, ease property policies, increase car purchases, improve conditions for private businesses, and bolster financial markets in an effort to revive the economy's recovery and improve the business environment.
China's hybrid economic model, which combines state planning with market forces, is facing challenges as the country struggles with weak economic indicators, including high youth unemployment and falling prices, and the property market experiences financial distress due to government interventions and market dynamics; policymakers must implement short-term measures to boost market confidence, such as managing property-sector defaults and easing housing investment restrictions, while also undertaking long-term structural reforms to address moral hazards, promote fiscal responsibility, and protect private businesses and foreign investors.
China needs to fully utilize policy space to bolster economic growth and market expectations by making significant adjustments in fiscal and monetary policies, according to a senior economist and political adviser. The economist emphasizes the importance of sending strong signals to the market and considers options such as interest rate cuts, increased deficit-to-GDP ratio, and infrastructural improvements to address economic challenges caused by global demand stagnation and tightened US monetary measures.
China's economic difficulties can be attributed to its reliance on authoritarianism and central planning, which has led to wasted capital, labor, and diverted efforts, creating significant problems and holding back the economy. The Biden administration's adoption of industrial policies and top-down planning in its economic scheme, known as "Bidenomics," bears similarities to China's flawed approach.
Chinese officials have implemented aggressive measures to address the lack of confidence in the struggling economy, but analysts believe that more stimulus is needed for a sustained market rally and to stabilize the property sector.
China's economy is facing significant challenges, including a property crisis, youth unemployment, and a flawed economic model, but the government's limited response suggests they are playing the long game and prioritizing ideology over effective governance.
China is planning to relax home-purchase restrictions and implement new measures to address the debt crisis in its property sector, which accounts for a quarter of its economy, in an effort to boost consumer demand.
China's failure to restructure its economy according to President Xi Jinping's bold reform plans has raised concerns about the country's future, with the possibility of a financial or economic crisis looming and a slow drift towards stagnation being the most likely outcome. The three potential paths for China include a swift, painful crisis; a gradual winding down of excesses at the expense of growth; or a switch to a consumer-led model with structural reforms that bring short-term pain but lead to a faster and stronger emergence.
Chinese stocks surged as the government implemented additional measures to support the property sector, signaling a determination to boost the economy by addressing issues in the struggling housing market.
China's economic slowdown is posing a significant challenge to President Xi Jinping's agenda, forcing him to make difficult choices and potentially relinquish some control over the economy. The slump in housing sales and the crackdown on private capital are among the factors contributing to the economic setbacks, prompting calls for change and a reevaluation of economic policies under Xi's highly centralized leadership. However, Xi seems reluctant to make major changes to his strategy, opting for a hands-off approach and avoiding a big rescue plan for distressed developers and local governments. The central government's control over taxes and the need to revamp the fiscal system further complicate the situation. Restoring government finances while reassuring private investors is a daunting task that requires strong leadership and potentially contentious policy changes. The upcoming Communist Party meetings will shed light on how Xi plans to restore confidence in his economic agenda, but some economists and former officials warn that time may be running out for China to embrace necessary reforms.
China is considering further easing measures in the property market and increasing fiscal support for infrastructure investment to boost economic growth in the fourth quarter, as sluggish demand remains a challenge.
China's measures to support the property sector, such as lowering mortgage rates, have limited impact on consumer spending due to the dire economic outlook and lack of longer-term reforms, highlighting the need for resources to be transferred to consumers from other sectors of the economy.
China's consumer prices returned to positive territory in August as deflation pressures ease, but analysts warn that more policy support is needed to boost consumer demand in the economy.
Signs of improvement in China's economy, such as improving credit demand and easing deflationary pressures, may not be enough to stabilize the economy due to bigger concerns of decreasing affordability, tight wages, and rising costs that have not been addressed. A comprehensive policy revamp may be necessary for China's economy to recover.
China should focus on structural reforms instead of relying on macroeconomic policies to revive its growth, as it has limited room for further monetary policy easing, according to a central bank adviser. The adviser suggests encouraging entrepreneurs and implementing demand-side and supply-side reforms to aid the economy. Recognizing the status of private businesses is also essential for revitalizing investor confidence.
China is facing challenges in its economic recovery, including calls for policy clarity, concerns over over-reliance on Chinese EVs, inadequate scientific literacy, declining luxury spending by the middle class, and a shrinking US middle class.
China's central bank vows to provide stronger policy support for the economy and maintain a healthy property market, following the rebound of industrial profits in August.
China's economy is showing signs of a stronger recovery, with indicators such as increased activity around shopping malls, a pickup in cement manufacturing, and a surge in traffic congestion, suggesting renewed consumer confidence and a positive direction for the construction sector.
China's property crisis poses significant challenges for an economy heavily reliant on real estate, although there are some sectors that may benefit from the situation.
China's economic malaise is attributed to a failure to implement necessary reforms, with structural threats to stability increasing and growth expectations diminishing, according to a report by Rhodium Group and the Atlantic Council, which warns that the country's goal of becoming the world's largest economy may be delayed.
