### Summary
Oil prices rose in Asian trade, unfazed by China's disappointing interest rate cut, as the prospect of tighter supplies supported the outlook.
### Facts
- 💰 Oil prices rose in Asian trade, shrugging off China's interest rate cut.
- 🛢️ Concerns over slowing demand in China and rising US interest rates had driven steep losses in crude prices.
- 📉 China cut its one-year loan prime rate by 10 basis points to 3.45%, disappointing market forecasts for a larger cut.
- 🏢 Lack of changes in the mortgage rate raised concerns over a worsening real estate crisis in China.
- 🌍 Deep production cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia are expected to limit crude supplies by nearly 70 million barrels over 45 days.
- 🇺🇸 Robust fuel consumption in the US, particularly during the summer season, pointed to tighter markets.
- 📈 Analysts expect oil prices to remain relatively higher for the rest of the year, despite the prospect of higher interest rates affecting US demand.
China's economy, which has been a model of growth for the past 40 years, is facing deep distress and its long era of rapid economic expansion may be coming to an end, marked by slow growth, unfavorable demographics, and a growing divide with the US and its allies, according to the Wall Street Journal.
China's weak economy, including an unstable property market and weak consumer demand, is posing risks to global markets and economies like the US, according to experts.
China's stuttering economy poses a major threat to global commodities demand, as economic activity and credit flows deteriorate, and structural challenges and weaknesses in various sectors, including base metals, iron & steel, crude oil, coal & gas, and pork, affect the market.
China's tourism industry is expected to grow faster than its GDP as Chinese consumers shift their spending from property to travel experiences, according to the CFO of Tongcheng Travel.
China faces challenges in rebalancing its economy towards increased consumer spending due to the economic growth model that relies heavily on investment in property, infrastructure, and industry, as well as the reluctance of households to spend and the limited social safety net; implementing demand-side measures would require difficult decisions and potential short-term pain for businesses and the government sector.
China's economic slowdown is worrisome for global markets as it is one of the largest buyers of commodities.
Despite U.S. trade shifting away from China, the country still relies on China-linked supply chains, leading to higher costs for consumers and uncertain benefits in terms of improved manufacturing efficiency, according to research presented at a Federal Reserve symposium.
China's economic slowdown is causing alarm across the world, as it is expected to have a negative impact on global economic growth, leading to reduced imports and trade, falling commodity prices, a deflationary effect on global goods prices, and a decline in tourism and luxury spending.
Oil prices increase as China takes steps to support its economy, but concerns about global growth, US interest rate hikes, and Chinese manufacturing data persist.
China's economy is facing multiple challenges, including tech and economic sanctions from the US, structural problems, and a decline in exports, hindering its goal of becoming a top global exporter and tech power, which could have long-lasting effects on its status in international relations and the global economy.
China's commodities sector, including coal mining and metals production, is experiencing declining profits due to the worsening property crisis and economic slowdown, with steel producers being the hardest hit. However, there is potential for growth in metals firms linked to the energy transition, particularly in China's green copper consumption driven by electric vehicles and renewable power.
China's imports of thermal coal are expected to increase in August as seaborne prices remain competitive and domestic supplies are constrained, with robust demand for imported coal driven by increased thermal power generation and declining hydropower generation.
Despite the turmoil in China's real estate market, iron ore prices have remained high, suggesting that demand for construction and manufacturing materials is still strong and indicating that China's economy may not be as bleak as other data suggests.
Gold and silver prices are higher in response to weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data, contributing to gold reaching a three-week high, while China's measures to stimulate its economy and positive sentiment in international stock markets also influence the market.
Oil prices ease as China's manufacturing activity drops and investors await U.S. personal consumption expenditure report, while U.S. government data shows tighter crude supplies and concerns arise over potential crude oil supply disruptions due to a military coup in Gabon.
Despite efforts by the U.S. and other countries to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains, Chinese companies have successfully expanded their presence in key markets such as cutting-edge materials and electric vehicles, making it difficult for countries to ensure their economic security.
The prospect of a prolonged economic slump in China poses a serious threat to global growth, potentially changing fundamental aspects of the global economy, affecting debt markets and supply chains, and impacting emerging markets and the United States.
China's economic growth has slowed but has not collapsed, and while there are concerns about financial risks and a potential property crisis, there are also bright spots such as the growth of the new energy and technology sectors that could boost the economy.
Oil prices ease as uncertain economic outlook for China outweighs expectations of tighter supplies from extended supply cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia.
The decline in Chinese imports into the U.S. is impacting steel prices and raising concerns about sourcing steel and other metals.
China's economy is expected to grow less than previously anticipated due to struggles in the property market, leading economists to predict further downgrades and posing risks to both the domestic and global economy.
China's recent policies to stabilize the property sector may not be enough to stimulate real economic growth, although they could generate demand, according to analysts.
China's retail sales and industrial production exceeded expectations in August, with retail sales growing by 4.6% and industrial production growing by 4.5%, but fixed asset investment lagging behind at 3.2%, indicating potential instability in the external environment.
China's macroeconomic challenges, including deflationary pressures, yuan depreciation, and a struggling property sector, could have broader implications beyond its borders, impacting global metal exporters, trade deals, and global inflation; however, investing in China's stocks may offer compelling valuations despite the current downturn.
The spot price of iron ore has reached a five-month high in China due to improving sentiment and supportive fundamentals, but the rally may be limited by potential government measures to restrict steel production and officials' dissatisfaction with rising prices.
China's natural gas demand is expected to grow by 8% this year, higher than analysts' forecasts, due to recovering industrial demand and lower global prices, with LNG imports and piped gas imports also projected to increase by 10.9% and 10.7% respectively in 2023.
China's economy is still expected to grow 5% this year, despite outsized expectations and challenges such as a bloated property sector and demographic issues.
China is seeking to increase productivity and efficiency in its industrial northeast region, facing economic challenges such as an aging population, declining birthrate, and a real estate crisis, but some economists argue that the government's focus on industrial investments is outdated and lacks measures to stimulate consumer confidence and spending.
The market for gold in China is surging as investors turn to the precious metal for safety amid economic stress, with the price of gold in Shanghai reaching a premium of 6% higher than in London or New York.
Tensions between the West and China are rising, impacting global markets by increasing inflation and interest rates, shifting supply chains, creating opportunities for emerging nations and tech giants, and affecting industries such as manufacturing, infrastructure, luxury goods, and technology. Investors are split on how to approach the Chinese market amidst these tensions.
China's decreased oil demand, coupled with its shift from crude imports to refined product exports and sizable oil inventories, is countering recent crude price surges and playing a significant role in the global oil market.
The copper market is expected to shift from a supply-demand balance to a significant supply surplus next year, driven by weak Western demand and strong Chinese production, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG).
The lack of copper mines under development and weakening demand due to slowing global manufacturing could hinder the pace of energy transitions, according to industry executives, despite expectations for high long-term copper demand driven by the energy transition push.
China's imports of major commodities, including crude oil, natural gas, coal, and iron ore, remained resilient in September, showing strong growth compared to the same period last year, defying the market narrative that the country's economy is struggling for momentum.
China's economy is expected to slow in the third quarter due to weakened demand, but increased government support may help Beijing achieve its full-year growth target.
Goldman Sachs expects industrial metals markets to face softness in the near term due to declining demand, higher interest rates, and potential restraints on Chinese imports of copper.
China's third-quarter economic growth exceeded expectations, raising hopes that the country will meet its target of approximately 5% growth for this year.
The U.S. economy is surpassing China's growth as U.S. retail and industrial data continue to exceed expectations, leading to concerns about inflation and potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, while energy prices soar and tensions rise in the Gaza-Israel conflict.
China has imported a record amount of coal this year due to a spike in electricity demand caused by increased air conditioning usage and a decrease in hydropower generation, with imports expected to reach 470m metric tonnes in 2023, a 60% surge from 2022.
As China's economy continues to grow, its demographic challenges, including an aging population and declining fertility rate, may hinder its ability to overtake the U.S. as the world's largest economy, according to Chinese scientist Yi Fuxian.
