China's economy, which has been a model of growth for the past 40 years, is facing deep distress and its long era of rapid economic expansion may be coming to an end, marked by slow growth, unfavorable demographics, and a growing divide with the US and its allies, according to the Wall Street Journal.
China's economy has slipped into deflation for the first time in two years, raising concerns about its post-pandemic recovery and drawing comparisons to Japan's struggles with stagnant growth and deflation in the 1990s, as China faces challenges in its property sector and a need to shift towards consumer spending.
China's economy is facing challenges with slowing growth, rising debt, tumbling stock markets, and a property sector crisis, and some analysts believe that heavy-handed government intervention and a lack of confidence are underlying causes that cannot be easily fixed. However, others argue that China's problems are solvable and that it remains a superpower despite its considerable problems.
As China's economic crisis unfolds, it is becoming apparent that the immense debt accumulated in building infrastructure projects, coupled with high unemployment and personal decisions made by Xi Jinping, could pose a serious threat to the regime's stability and potentially lead to a post-Communist China.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has urged the BRICS bloc of emerging markets to expedite its plan to expand its membership, aiming to increase the group's influence on the global stage, with about 20 countries including Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Egypt expressing interest in joining the group.
China's economy is struggling and facing a lurching from one economic challenge to the next due to failures in economic policy and the centralization of power under President Xi Jinping, which is causing bad decision-making and a decline in living standards.
China's economic slowdown, coupled with a property market bust and local government debt crisis, is posing challenges to President Xi Jinping's goals of achieving economic growth and curbing inequality, potentially affecting the Communist Party's legitimacy and Xi's grip on power.
China's economy is experiencing a structural slowdown and becoming increasingly opaque, making it difficult for outsiders to understand the true state of the country's economic affairs, as President Xi Jinping prioritizes ideology over economic growth and transparency.
China's economy is struggling due to an imbalance between investments and consumption, resulting in increased debt and limited household spending, and without a shift towards consumption and increased policy measures, the economic slowdown may have profound consequences for China and the world.
The BRICS' economic output represents over 40% of the world's population and is predicted to reach 40% of global GDP by 2040, but skepticism remains about their effectiveness as a bloc due to differences in economic policy, China's dominant role, and conflicts among member countries.
China's failure to restructure its economy according to President Xi Jinping's bold reform plans has raised concerns about the country's future, with the possibility of a financial or economic crisis looming and a slow drift towards stagnation being the most likely outcome. The three potential paths for China include a swift, painful crisis; a gradual winding down of excesses at the expense of growth; or a switch to a consumer-led model with structural reforms that bring short-term pain but lead to a faster and stronger emergence.
China's economy is facing a "new new normal" due to a declining population and weak confidence in its post-Covid recovery, prompting calls for systemic reforms to revive growth. The country's aging and shrinking population poses challenges to productivity, consumption, and long-term growth potential, leading major investment banks to cut growth forecasts. Policy adviser Cai Fang suggests relaxing population controls and focusing on expanding consumption as strategies to boost economic growth.
The absence of President Xi Jinping from the G20 summit and the expansion of the Brics bloc highlight the declining interest of non-Western powers in Western-led institutions, signaling a shift towards alternative economic and financial arrangements.
China's economic slowdown is posing a significant challenge to President Xi Jinping's agenda, forcing him to make difficult choices and potentially relinquish some control over the economy. The slump in housing sales and the crackdown on private capital are among the factors contributing to the economic setbacks, prompting calls for change and a reevaluation of economic policies under Xi's highly centralized leadership. However, Xi seems reluctant to make major changes to his strategy, opting for a hands-off approach and avoiding a big rescue plan for distressed developers and local governments. The central government's control over taxes and the need to revamp the fiscal system further complicate the situation. Restoring government finances while reassuring private investors is a daunting task that requires strong leadership and potentially contentious policy changes. The upcoming Communist Party meetings will shed light on how Xi plans to restore confidence in his economic agenda, but some economists and former officials warn that time may be running out for China to embrace necessary reforms.
China's economic growth has slowed but has not collapsed, and while there are concerns about financial risks and a potential property crisis, there are also bright spots such as the growth of the new energy and technology sectors that could boost the economy.
China's foreign ministry rejects claims by US President Joe Biden that its economy is faltering and asserts that its economy is resilient and has not collapsed, stating that it has great potential for sustained and healthy development.
China's economic recovery is being hindered by heavily indebted local government financial vehicles (LGFVs), which were created to build public infrastructure but are now a ticking time bomb that restrains the country's ability to spend its way out of the current economic slowdown. The options for President Xi Jinping are limited, but a harsher solution like a fire sale of LGFVs' assets may be necessary to address the debt overhang and revive economic growth.
The BRICS expansion, which includes countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran, has raised concerns in the U.S. and EU as it poses a threat to Western-dominated financial markets, while China's influence grows and the alliance aims for de-dollarization in global trade.
Signs of improvement in China's economy, such as improving credit demand and easing deflationary pressures, may not be enough to stabilize the economy due to bigger concerns of decreasing affordability, tight wages, and rising costs that have not been addressed. A comprehensive policy revamp may be necessary for China's economy to recover.
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