CNBC Daily Open: Despite Monday’s bounce, stocks are still shaky
Stocks started the final week of August on a positive note, but September is historically a bad month for stocks and analysts are warning of more turmoil ahead for the market.
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Posted 8/28/2023, 11:45:09 PM
cnbc.com
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The stock market has been riding high in 2023, but recent market trends and uncertainties about interest rates and inflation have led to a pullback in August, leaving investors unsure about the future direction of the market. It is advised to stick to a long-term investment plan and remain focused on investment objectives and risk tolerance.
The stock market is rising despite bad news, as interest rates lower and stabilizing rates are seen as positive signs.
Investors should buy stocks during the August market weakness as the current pullback is just a healthy correction in a bull market, supported by economic resilience, technical analysis indicating an upward trend, insiders turning more bullish, and cautious investor sentiment.
Stockbrokers who traditionally sell their positions in May and return on St Ledger's Day in September may be in for trouble this year, as indicators such as the copper-gold ratio and predictions from investors like Michael Burry suggest a potential market crash and recession.
Stocks around the world are starting the week on a positive note, despite the possibility of higher U.S. interest rates, with U.S. futures pointing to a modest boost for indexes at the opening bell.
September has historically been a difficult month for stocks, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experiencing negative returns on average, but a pullback in September doesn't necessarily mean stocks will stumble for the rest of the year if the economy remains resilient and the Federal Reserve is done hiking rates.
September historically has been the worst performing month for the U.S. stock market, and with the recent decline in August, investors should prepare for further volatility and potentially disappointing results in September.
Stocks are expected to rally next month, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching its previous highs, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee, who cited reasons such as a cooling economy, no further interest rate hikes from the Fed, overly bearish sentiment in August, and historically strong performance in September.
September is historically the worst month for stocks, and with mounting fears in the market, Evercore's Julian Emanuel advises investors to remain defensive until a potential buying opportunity arises in October.
Stocks have historically performed poorly in September, with an average loss of 1.12%, but investors should not base their decisions solely on this statistical trend and should focus on buying fundamentally strong companies at reasonable prices.
Bitcoin investors may face a turbulent September, but analysts suggest looking towards mid-October for potentially positive market movements.
European stock markets are expected to open higher as investors await the U.S. jobs report, while China's Caixin/S&P global manufacturing purchasing managers' index boosted global sentiment; however, September is historically a difficult month for stocks.
Despite a decline in August, the US market is still in good shape, with a correction in stocks being viewed as a normal breather rather than the start of a bear market, while various trends and indicators suggest a continuation of the bullish trend.
Wall Street started the month of September on a high note after a rocky August, with Dow futures up by 127 points, S&P futures 0.3% higher, and Nasdaq futures up by about 0.15%, as investors await Friday's crucial jobs report which is expected to show that the labor market will stay in a sweet spot.
Investors are hopeful that September will bring an end to the rise in interest rates, but the month is filled with risk events, making it potentially volatile for both stocks and bonds.
The stock market could reach record highs by the end of the year, as historical data suggests positive returns when stocks are up 10%-20% heading into September, according to Bank of America.
September has historically been the worst month for stocks, but this year may be different as the excitement around AI, cash on the sidelines, and Apple's new iPhone could potentially drive positive market performance.
Summary: Nvidia, Tesla, and Apple stocks had a great week as August ended on a strong note and Friday's jobs report provided a solid start to September.
Stock market momentum may struggle to recover before the end of the year, according to a successful strategist.
Stocks were lower on Tuesday as September began, with oil prices reaching new highs and Treasury yields rising, putting pressure on the market, while traders awaited more economic data to determine the likelihood of another rate hike from the Federal Reserve.
US stocks are experiencing their worst performance in September since 1928, but there are signs that the market could avoid a steep downturn this year, with indicators suggesting more stability and positive gains for the rest of the year, according to Mark Hackett, chief of research at US investment firm Nationwide. However, challenges such as elevated oil prices and inflation could put strain on the stock market and the US economy.
The stock market remains above mid-August lows, but higher highs are not expected yet, with the focus on upcoming earnings results and economic data.
Investors are becoming increasingly nervous due to concerns about the Fed potentially increasing interest rates, as well as rising 10-year interest rates and the VIX, which may put pressure on stocks; however, there are also positive factors emerging, such as improving S&P 500 profit estimates and a shift away from data dependence by Fed officials, which suggests a better finish to September is probable.
The stock market's September blues are almost over, and stocks could see a 5% gain from here.
Stocks may still be vulnerable in September, despite the buzz generated by Arm going public and the lousy market month of August.
The stock market ended the week on a positive note, with gains in mega-cap tech stocks like Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft helping the Nasdaq Composite avoid a fifth straight loss, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 also had slight gains; however, all three benchmarks closed the week in negative territory.
The stock market opened positively, with the Nasdaq up 0.6%, but later faded; major indexes are below their 50-day moving averages as investors await key economic data midweek.
September historically has been a challenging month for stocks, but reduced concerns about a recession, signs of a potential shift in Fed policy, and positive sector trends point to the possibility of strategic investment opportunities this year.
The stock market had a cool summer with the Dow Jones up 0.5%, the S&P 500 down 0.4%, and the Nasdaq down 1.3% from June 21 to Friday, as big tech stocks experienced a slump while energy stocks performed well.