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U.S. Crop Yields See Slight Rebound After Historic Drought, Though Further Rain Still Needed

  • Corn and soybean yield potential ticks up slightly after declines due to historic drought across U.S. Corn Belt.
  • Most Crop Watch fields received little rain last week and no longer benefit from moisture for yield.
  • Average corn yield rose slightly to 3.66 from 3.61 on quarter-point rises in western Iowa and Ohio.
  • Average soybean yield edged up to 3.59 from 3.57 after quarter-point bump in North Dakota.
  • Ohio remains bright spot with highest yield scores of 4.75 for corn and 5 for beans.
reuters.com
Relevant topic timeline:
Crop Tour shows best corn, but soybean pods remain a concern as extreme heat affects Midwest crops.
Scouts on the Pro Farmer Crop Tour are concerned about the impact of high heat and limited moisture on the corn crop in Nebraska, while corn yields in Ohio and South Dakota are estimated to be higher than last year.
Extreme heat and drought conditions in Nebraska have led to record amounts of irrigation for crops, while in Indiana the soybean crop is facing moisture deficiencies and deep-rooted plants due to a dry spell in June.
Scouts on the 2023 Pro Farmer Crop Tour reported high temperatures and varying crop conditions, with some regions seeing improvements from last year's drought while others suffered from lack of moisture and heat stress. Diseases such as tar spot and sudden death syndrome were also concerns, but overall soybeans performed well despite the challenges.
Soybeans were the strongest performer in the grain market this week, while corn prices faced disappointment and struggled to break through resistance levels. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour indicated lower yields for both corn and soybeans compared to USDA estimates, potentially leading to higher prices if adjustments are made in the September WASDE report.
Extreme heat and drought have caused damage to soybeans and corn crops, leading to lower yield and production estimates by Pro Farmer and potential higher prices in the future.
The farmers' crop outlook remains uncertain as they are unsure of the damage caused by previous dry conditions and the upcoming heat, leading to low corn prices and high soybean prices; farmers are advised to be cautious in selling beans and consider taking advantage of early shipment premiums. Additionally, it is recommended to finish fall fertilizer purchases and potentially start purchasing for spring. The USDA may lower their yield estimate due to abnormal weather patterns, and once the harvest is complete, the market will have a clearer picture of the crop's size, potentially leading to price fluctuations.
Analysts expect the upcoming U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates to show smaller corn and soybean crops due to falling yield prospects caused by dry and hot weather conditions.
Dry weather and unfavorable growing conditions in Iowa and Illinois have led to reduced yield expectations for soybeans and corn, with the latest dry spell preventing maximization of yields and causing some crops to shut down.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has increased its estimate for harvested corn area, resulting in hopes of a near-record harvest despite weaker yields, as corn plantings reach a 10-year high.
Lower projected yields for corn and soybeans in the US have led to increased prices for both crops, with soybean prices reacting more significantly than corn prices due to tighter market conditions. The corn market is adequately supplied, while the soybean market remains tight and uncertain. The report also highlights the importance of the Mississippi River system water levels for soybean export movement.