Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the U.S. government is "more likely than not" to shut down later this year due to spending disagreements, which could temporarily impact economic growth by reducing it by 0.15-0.2 percentage points per week, with past shutdowns having minimal impact on equity markets.
US bond-market selloff continues as resilient economy prompts investors to anticipate elevated interest rates even after the Federal Reserve finishes its hikes, leading to a 16-year high in 10-year yields and increased inflation expectations.
The markets were mixed today, with the Dow dropping while the Nasdaq rose slightly, and major indices are down over the past five trading sessions; however, year-to-date, the markets are still up and have retreated to valuations not seen since early July.
Summary: U.S. markets closed mixed on Tuesday as the Nasdaq saw slight gains thanks to tech stocks while financials dragged on other indexes after major U.S. banks were hit with another downgrade from a credit rating agency. Meanwhile, China took steps to stabilize its currency amid weakening economic conditions and deteriorating credit conditions.
United States stock markets, including the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange, will be closed on Monday, Sept. 4, in celebration of Labor Day, a national holiday honoring American workers.
Summary: The US markets ended mixed after the release of the latest jobs report data, with the economy adding 187,000 jobs in August but seeing an increase in unemployment, while in Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 closed higher, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was down, and China's Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen CSI 300 declined. Additionally, European markets saw declines, and commodities such as crude oil, natural gas, gold, silver, and copper experienced varying price movements.
Summary: The Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Friday after a week of losses, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%; however, all three major indexes ended the week lower due to rising oil prices, stronger-than-expected labor market data, and China's iPhone ban.
Lawmakers are dealing with a potential government shutdown as oil prices rise above $90 per barrel and housing data is expected, all ahead of the September FOMC meeting where the trends in inflation and the housing market will influence the Fed's decision on interest rates.
A full government shutdown in the US is likely at the end of the month, which could impact the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates in November, according to analysts at PIMCO.
With just over a week until Congress hits their deadline, the possibility of a government shutdown grows as House Republicans remain divided on spending negotiations.
Investors shouldn't worry about a government shutdown as it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the markets.
The US government faces a potential shutdown if Congress fails to agree on funding past September 30, which would be the first shutdown since December 2018 and could result in a longer standoff between parties.
Summary: U.S. markets closed down on Friday, with Coinbase Global experiencing the biggest hit.
The federal government is at risk of shutting down on October 1 if a last-minute spending deal is not reached, potentially leading to delayed paychecks for millions of federal workers and negative effects on the economy, according to the AP.
The House and Senate are racing against time to prevent a government shutdown on October 1st by attempting to pass a measure to keep the government open for 45 days, but the outcome remains uncertain due to the opposition of extreme right-wing lawmakers.
If Congress fails to act, a potential government shutdown this weekend could harm the U.S. credit rating, according to Moody's. The agency highlighted the U.S.'s weak fiscal planning and dysfunctional budgeting process as factors that may negatively impact its credit rating.
The impending government shutdown may have an impact on the financial markets, according to Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist at Invesco.
Goldman Sachs' chief economist predicts that the U.S. government is likely to face a two-to-three-week-long shutdown beginning on October 1 due to the failure to reach an agreement on annual budget legislation.
Stocks closed mixed on Tuesday as investors worried about higher interest rates, rising bond yields, a spike in oil prices, and the possibility of a government shutdown, though a stronger-than-expected reading on U.S. manufacturing activity provided some positive news. The ongoing autoworkers strike and inflation concerns also weighed on market sentiment, while oil prices continued to rise, benefiting certain energy companies. Despite concerns, historical data suggests that government shutdowns have not had a significant negative impact on stocks in the past.
The U.S. government is facing a potential shutdown if Congress does not resolve a deadlock by this weekend, which would result in furloughs or unpaid work for federal workers and military employees, but experts believe the impact on the economy and stock market will be short-lived.
Millions of Americans anticipate a government shutdown as Congress struggles to pass a budget, potentially causing a short-term stock market gain.
A potential government shutdown in the US may lead to a delay or absence of the September consumer-price index report, which would complicate decisions for financial markets and the Federal Reserve.
US stocks traded mixed on Friday, closing out the worst month of 2023, as investors prepared for a potential government shutdown.
The US government narrowly avoided a shutdown after Congress passed a last-minute funding bill and President Joe Biden signed it just before midnight, preventing an unnecessary crisis and ensuring the government remains open until at least November 17.
Summary: The U.S. stock market had a bad quarter, with all indexes falling, while the World Bank lowered its growth forecast for developing economies in East Asia and the Pacific, and China's demand for commodities continues to grow despite the downgrade. Additionally, a last-minute spending bill was passed to avoid a government shutdown, and this week's focus will be on the labor market.
Investors will be closely watching market reactions to a late deal to avert a government shutdown, as well as key data on the labor market this week, while concerns about higher interest rates and the impact on the economy weigh on stock futures.
The stock market begins the new quarter with mixed performance as the government avoids a shutdown, Tesla shares recover slightly, and major indexes remain below key moving averages.
U.S. stocks showed mixed performance as Treasury yields rose and a government shutdown was averted, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.6%, the S&P 500 down 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.4%.
Bitcoin's sharp rally on October 1 may have been influenced by a temporary agreement reached by US legislators to avert a government shutdown, combined with the historically strong performance of Bitcoin in October, while the US stock markets are also in a favorable position this month. However, the rising US dollar index could pose a challenge for the bulls in the cryptocurrency markets.
Summary:
US stock indexes closed lower as investors awaited monthly employment data and looked for insights into future interest rate directions, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.03%, the S&P 500 down 0.13%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.12%; in Asian markets, Japan's Nikkei 225 declined 0.28%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.41%, China's markets were closed for a holiday, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index gained 1.40%; European markets, including the STOXX 600, Germany's DAX, France's CAC, and the UK's FTSE 100, all saw gains; and in commodities, Crude Oil WTI and Brent were down, Natural Gas was up, and Gold, Silver, and Copper all saw increases.
Major market averages opened lower on Tuesday as markets react to geopolitical risks, with no major developments since the Israeli evacuation notice to Gaza residents.
US stocks finished the day relatively unchanged as Treasury yields rose on better-than-expected retail sales data, increasing concerns about higher interest rates; the Dow Jones and S&P 500 closed less than 0.1% away from yesterday's close, while the Nasdaq closed around 0.3% lower.
Stock markets in the US closed mixed on Tuesday, with positive economic data and strong Q3 earnings suggesting a continued tight monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, while Asian markets saw a mix of gains and declines, with Japan's Nikkei 225 and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 closing higher, and China's Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen CSI 300 declining; European markets also saw declines, and commodities such as crude oil, gold, and silver saw gains.
Major market averages opened trading on Friday with the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Dow all down, marking a pivotal earnings season and a need for tech sector growth to lift the whole market, while rates decreased and no major events took place on the economic calendar.
Summary: U.S. stocks closed the week on a low note due to geopolitical concerns, a bond sell-off, economic data, and mixed comments from Federal Reserve speakers, with the focus shifting to upcoming quarterly results, and the Nasdaq Composite and S&P both experiencing significant declines.
US stocks close mixed as Treasury yields retreat from 5%, with the S&P 500 ending slightly lower, the Nasdaq higher, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining for the fourth consecutive day; focus shifts to high-profile earnings and economic data.
