Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the U.S. government is "more likely than not" to shut down later this year due to spending disagreements, which could temporarily impact economic growth by reducing it by 0.15-0.2 percentage points per week, with past shutdowns having minimal impact on equity markets.
The majority of economists polled by Reuters predict that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again, and they expect the central bank to wait until at least the end of March before cutting them, as the probability of a recession within a year falls to its lowest level since September 2022.
Mortgage rates have been high this month due to the Federal Reserve's rate increase and rising inflation, but they may go down if inflation calms and the Fed stops hiking rates.
The potential government shutdown threatens to deprive the Federal Reserve of crucial data on the labor market and inflation, which could hinder its ability to make informed decisions about the economy and interest rates.
The stock market is currently stagnant and the key question is when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates, as the market struggles when the Fed tightens monetary policy.
High mortgage rates have frozen the US housing market, but experts predict that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in the next 12 to 18 months, potentially leading to a decline in mortgage rates.
Lawmakers are dealing with a potential government shutdown as oil prices rise above $90 per barrel and housing data is expected, all ahead of the September FOMC meeting where the trends in inflation and the housing market will influence the Fed's decision on interest rates.
The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a pause on interest rate hikes due to positive economic indicators and the likelihood of a "soft landing" for the economy, but future decisions will be influenced by factors such as the resumption of student loan payments and a potential government shutdown.
The White House warns that a government shutdown at the end of the month could have damaging consequences for the economy, national security, and the American public.
The Federal Reserve held off on raising interest rates at its September meeting, but economic activity and rising energy prices are likely to drive their decision in the next meeting.
With just over a week until Congress hits their deadline, the possibility of a government shutdown grows as House Republicans remain divided on spending negotiations.
The Federal Reserve has paused raising interest rates and projects that the US will not experience a recession until at least 2027, citing improvement in the economy and a "very smooth landing," though there are still potential risks such as surging oil prices, an auto worker strike, and the threat of a government shutdown.
The US government faces a potential shutdown if Congress fails to agree on funding past September 30, which would be the first shutdown since December 2018 and could result in a longer standoff between parties.
The looming government shutdown may disrupt the return of student loan payments on October 1, as loan servicers struggle to handle the influx of borrowers seeking assistance.
The federal government is likely to face a shutdown that will affect various services, disrupt workers' pay, and create political turmoil as Republicans demand deep spending cuts.
The impending federal shutdown, combined with other economic challenges such as rising gas prices, student loan payments, and reduced pandemic savings, is expected to strain American households and potentially weaken economic growth in the last quarter of the year.
The federal government is at risk of shutting down on October 1 if a last-minute spending deal is not reached, potentially leading to delayed paychecks for millions of federal workers and negative effects on the economy, according to the AP.
If lawmakers fail to pass a budget by October 1, the government will shut down and it could have several negative impacts on the economy, such as furloughed workers, difficulty in obtaining mortgages, and the Federal Reserve lacking important data for monetary policy decisions.
A potential government shutdown in the U.S. could negatively impact the country's credit rating, highlighting weaknesses in institutional and governance strength, according to Moody's Investors Service. The economic impacts would be concentrated in areas with significant government presence, and the severity of the effects would depend on its duration. If prolonged, it could have a more pronounced effect on business and consumer confidence as well as financial markets.
The White House is preparing for a possible government shutdown on October 1, with senior officials drawing up plans for essential personnel, as lawmakers struggle to find a funding solution.
The impending government shutdown may have an impact on the financial markets, according to Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist at Invesco.
J.P. Morgan strategists predict that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates until the third quarter of next year due to a strong economy and continued inflation, with implications for inflation, earnings, and equity valuations as well as potential impact from a government shutdown.
There is a 90% chance of a government shutdown, according to Goldman Sachs, as the deadline looms and little progress has been made in negotiations.
Goldman Sachs' chief economist predicts that the U.S. government is likely to face a two-to-three-week-long shutdown beginning on October 1 due to the failure to reach an agreement on annual budget legislation.
The Senate voted 76-22 to keep a six-week government funding measure on track to pass this weekend, but it looks increasingly likely the federal government will shut down when funding runs out Saturday.
Millions of Americans anticipate a government shutdown as Congress struggles to pass a budget, potentially causing a short-term stock market gain.
Congress faces an imminent government shutdown as a funding bill fails in the House and Senate is predicted to need until Sunday for passage.
A government shutdown is looming as lawmakers have until the end of the day Saturday to reach a deal or the U.S. will face one of the largest government shutdowns in history, impacting millions of workers and services.
A potential government shutdown in the US may lead to a delay or absence of the September consumer-price index report, which would complicate decisions for financial markets and the Federal Reserve.
The US government is facing another shutdown as Congress fails to reach an agreement on funding federal agencies, which could have significant impacts on various sectors including air travel, national parks, and crucial nutrition programs.
The United States government is at risk of a partial shutdown, which could impact the progress of crypto bills and hinder the functioning of financial regulators.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warns that a government shutdown could lead to a recession, with immediate harm and long-term repercussions for the economy.
The US government narrowly avoided a shutdown after Congress passed a last-minute funding bill and President Joe Biden signed it just before midnight, preventing an unnecessary crisis and ensuring the government remains open until at least November 17.
Major market averages are mixed on Monday morning as Congress avoids a shutdown for now, with the bond selloff continuing; however, the US averted a shutdown just before the deadline, which will keep the government running until November 17th.
The chaos in Washington and uncertainty surrounding a possible government shutdown could make it less likely for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again this year, as the economy and inflation appear to be cooling off.
The Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates again this year due to an already uncertain political climate in Washington, as well as a cooling economy, slowing inflation, and potential negative impacts from high interest rates and a government shutdown.
Wall Street and policymakers at the Federal Reserve are optimistic that the rise in long-term Treasury yields could put an end to historic interest rate hikes meant to curb inflation, with financial markets now seeing a nearly 90% chance that the US central bank will keep rates unchanged at its next policy meeting on October 31 through November 1.
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