### Summary
India's retail inflation in July rose to 7.44%, higher than market expectations, and is expected to remain elevated in Q3. The global currency market is experiencing significant turbulence, with the USD appreciating despite economic weaknesses. Heightened inflation and volatility in the currency market pose risks to the Indian market.
### Facts
- India's retail inflation in July was 7.44%, exceeding market expectations.
- Elevated inflation is expected to continue in Q3.
- The global currency market is experiencing turmoil, with the USD appreciating despite economic frailty.
- FII outflows have increased, but India's equity market is performing better than other emerging markets.
- The RBI has revised its inflation forecast upward and expects inflation to decrease to 5.7% in Q3.
- High interest rates and inflation are expected to impact corporate earnings growth and valuation.
- India's one-year forward P/E valuation has decreased from 20x to 18.5x.
- Bond yields have increased, leading to a divestment of equities and acquisition of bonds.
- The domestic market is supported by restrained FII divestment, robust purchasing by DIIs and retail participants, and outperformance compared to other emerging markets.
- Selling in global equities has increased due to concerns of deflation and defaults in China's realty and finance sectors.
- The author expects the selling from FIIs to continue in the short-term due to elevated global bond yields, US credit downgrade, and slowdown in emerging markets, but India will continue to outperform.
- In the last month, the MSCI World index was down 4.2% compared to MSCI India's 1.85% decrease.
Gold prices in Asia rose after the recent decline in bond markets, as lower yields boosted demand for the precious metal, while investors await more information on the US Federal Reserve's policy stance at the Jackson Hole symposium this week.
Gold and silver prices rise as the weaker U.S. dollar index and dip in U.S. Treasury yields attract futures traders and bargain hunters, while anxieties build over upcoming speeches from the Fed and ECB on future monetary policy direction and the potential shift in the Fed's inflation goal.
Gold and silver prices are trading near unchanged in quieter early U.S. trading as investors await the release of key economic reports, including the jobs report for August, while Asian and European stock markets edge higher and the U.S. dollar index strengthens slightly.
Global markets show mixed performance, with Japan, China, Hong Kong, India, and Australia experiencing modest gains, while the US markets closed higher fueled by optimism over a possible pause in interest-rate hikes, as oil prices extend gains and gold prices remain near three-week highs.
The US dollar experienced a major technical reversal due to a weaker JOLTs report, leading to a drop in US interest rates, while market positioning played a role in the price action; the focus now shifts to personal consumption figures and US jobs data, with the euro and sterling firm but most other G10 currencies softer, and emerging market currencies mixed. In Asia, most large bourses advanced, but Europe's Stoxx 600 fell after rallying in previous sessions, while US index futures traded softer; European bonds are selling up, gold is consolidating, and oil prices are firm. Australia's CPI slowed more than expected, China is expected to release the August PMI, and Japan reports July retail sales. The US dollar has seen no follow-through selling against the yen, yuan, or Australian dollar, while the euro and sterling staged impressive price action. The JOLTS report saw the dollar and US rates reverse lower, and today the US reports advanced merchandise trade figures for July, with the Canadian dollar as the worst performing G10 currency yesterday.
The U.S. dollar declined due to weaknesses in economic growth, leading to a boost in the performance of gold and U.S. equities, while other global assets experienced mixed price movements throughout the week.
The US dollar's influence in the oil markets is diminishing as more oil is being transacted in non-dollar currencies, according to JPMorgan.
Gold and silver prices are lower due to technical selling and a lack of fresh fundamental news, while rising crude oil prices have potential economic and marketplace effects.
Asian markets are weighed down by concerns over high U.S. bond yields, a strong dollar, China's economic struggles, and rising oil prices.
Gold prices are trading near session lows despite higher-than-expected inflation, prompting markets to price in further rate hikes.
Gold and silver prices are higher as both markets rebound from multi-week lows, while stocks in Asia and Europe rise and U.S. stock indexes are expected to open mixed; China's economic data shows signs of a fragile economic recovery and the U.S. dollar weakens.
The amount of stablecoin USDT on crypto exchanges is increasing, which is seen as a positive sign, while the supply of Bitcoin and Ethereum on exchanges is decreasing, indicating strong holding sentiment and potential future buying interest.
Crude oil prices rose as inventories declined and demand from Asia and Europe decreased, threatening higher gas prices in the US and potentially impacting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.
Equity markets experienced a significant decline due to anticipated higher US interest rates, causing investor sentiment to be affected; meanwhile, oil prices remain within OPEC's preferred range, and the forex market is expecting a mixed performance from the pound and a strong US dollar.
Gold and silver prices are slightly down as U.S. Treasury yields rise, the U.S. dollar index remains high, and traders and investors anticipate a potential U.S. government shutdown.
The global markets, including U.S. and Asian markets, are caught in a cycle of rising bond yields, a strong dollar, higher oil prices, and decreasing risk appetite, leading to fragile equity markets and deepening growth fears.
The strength of the US dollar and rising bond yields are causing gold prices to fall to their lowest level since March, with some analysts predicting that the bearish momentum could push prices down further to their 2023 lows at $1,810 in the spot market.
Gold prices trade near session lows as US GDP data shows the economy grew in line with expectations but consumer spending fell more than anticipated.
Gold and silver prices are falling due to a strong U.S. dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and upbeat risk attitudes, while Asian and European stocks are mixed, and the Bank of Japan is monitoring the depreciation of the yen against the U.S. dollar.
Stock markets ended mixed as investors processed the effects of the U.S. inflation report on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, with the S&P 500 declining by 0.27% and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.14%; in Asian markets, Japan's Nikkei 225 settled lower by 0.31% while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 slid 0.22%; in Europe, the STOXX 600 index was down 0.42% with Germany's DAX declining 0.25%, France's CAC 40 sliding 0.36%, and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 trading lower by 0.45%; and in commodities, Crude Oil WTI and Brent gained 0.82% and 0.89% respectively, while Gold traded lower by 0.88%.
European and global markets are experiencing relief as bond yields and the dollar decrease while stock markets stabilize and gold prices rise, thanks to a cooler-than-expected U.S. private payrolls report and a significant drop in crude oil prices.
Stocks slip as U.S. crude futures drop and mortgage rates climb, while investors await payroll data for signs of a slowing job market; electric vehicle stocks like Rivian and Lucid are making moves, and the U.S. Dollar Index rises for its 12th consecutive week. European stocks close mixed, and utilities stocks see their worst year in over a decade due to higher bond yields.
Gold and silver prices slightly decline after U.S. consumer inflation data comes in higher than expected, but tensions in the Middle East maintain a safe-haven bid for precious metals.
Gold and crude oil prices experienced significant gains as geopolitical concerns and cautious Fedspeak impacted financial markets, while the US Dollar strengthened and stock markets faced mixed outlooks.
Gold and silver prices are weaker in early trading as a result of downside corrections and rising U.S. Treasury yields, while risk aversion and uncertainty in the Middle East and China's economic situation also contribute to the market's bearish sentiment.
Stock markets in the US closed higher, driven by optimism over earnings season, while Treasury yields rose due to concerns over the conflict between Israel and Hamas; Asian markets followed suit, with Japan's Nikkei 225 closing higher and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 recording gains, while European markets saw mixed results; in commodities, crude oil prices were relatively stable, while gold and silver prices increased slightly; and US futures indicated a slight decline.
