The Federal Reserve faces new questions as the U.S. economy continues to perform well despite high interest rates, prompting economists to believe a "soft landing" is possible, with optimism rising for an acceleration of growth and a more sustainable post-pandemic economy.
Investors are expecting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to take a hawkish tone on interest rate policy in his upcoming speech, as the US economy continues to perform well and inflation remains elevated.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell is expected to strike a different tone in his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium compared to last year, as the US economy shows signs of improvement, despite remaining challenges such as high inflation and rising costs for consumers.
The Federal Reserve meeting in September may hold the key to the end of the tightening cycle, as markets anticipate a rate hike in November, aligning with the Fed's thinking on its peak rate. However, disagreement among Fed policymakers regarding the strength of the economy and inflation raises questions about the clarity and certainty of the Fed's guidance. Market skeptics remain uncertain about the possibility of a "soft landing," with sustained economic expansion following a period of tightening.
Despite recent optimism around the U.S. economy, Deutsche Bank analysts believe that a recession is more likely than a "soft landing" as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary conditions to curb inflation.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Goldman Sachs may be optimistic about a "soft landing" scenario for the US economy, but the author remains skeptical due to factors such as a deeply inverted yield curve, declining Leading Economic Indicators, challenges faced by the consumer, global growth concerns, and the lagging impact of the Fed's monetary policy, leading them to maintain a conservative portfolio allocation.
Investors are more focused on the release of new forecasts from the Federal Reserve, which will reveal their views on the prospect of an economic "soft landing" and the rate environment that will accompany it.
Fed Chairman Powell's response that a soft landing is not his base case and that factors outside their control may decide the outcome shocks the stock market, leading to three days of market declines, despite the recent surge in the US economy.
The soft landing scenario for the US economy is in doubt due to five economic shocks, including a potential government shutdown, rising oil prices, a strike by the United Auto Workers, the resumption of student loan payments, and high mortgage rates nearing 8%.
The Federal Reserve is in a better position to deliver a soft landing for the U.S. economy due to facing different problems compared to the 2007-2008 financial crisis, according to F/m Investments CIO and President Alex Morris.