The Federal Reserve faces new questions as the U.S. economy continues to perform well despite high interest rates, prompting economists to believe a "soft landing" is possible, with optimism rising for an acceleration of growth and a more sustainable post-pandemic economy.
Jim Cramer anticipates that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole may signal further interest rate hikes, potentially causing stocks to decline, but advises investors to keep strong companies like Apple and Nvidia and seek opportunities for discounted stocks.
Stocks fluctuated as Jerome Powell signaled caution on declaring victory over inflation and stated that the Federal Reserve will proceed carefully on whether to raise interest rates again.
The stock market rally attempt experienced a setback as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw a downside reversal, indicating that the correction is still ongoing, while retailers faced challenges and Treasury yields reached a 15-year high. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned of potential rate hikes due to high inflation.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated at the Jackson Hole Symposium that he is prepared to raise rates further, disappointing investors hoping for a more dovish outlook, while weak economic data suggests that inflation may continue to fall due to a softening economic picture in Europe and China.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that inflation and economic growth remain too high and interest rates may continue to rise and remain restrictive for longer, while U.S. stocks rebounded and European markets closed slightly higher. Meanwhile, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai highlighted China's dominance in rare earth metals and the vulnerability of U.S. supply chains. Grocery delivery company Instacart filed paperwork for an IPO, and upcoming PCE and jobs data will provide insights into the Fed's rate decisions. Powell's ambiguous remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium led markets to focus on the prospect of a stronger economy rather than interest rate warnings.
The Federal Reserve meeting in September may hold the key to the end of the tightening cycle, as markets anticipate a rate hike in November, aligning with the Fed's thinking on its peak rate. However, disagreement among Fed policymakers regarding the strength of the economy and inflation raises questions about the clarity and certainty of the Fed's guidance. Market skeptics remain uncertain about the possibility of a "soft landing," with sustained economic expansion following a period of tightening.
Wall Street ended a challenging August on a mixed note, with the Dow Jones down 0.5%, the S&P 500 losing 0.16%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.11%, resulting in the worst monthly performance since earlier this year; however, signs of a soft landing for the US economy and lower jobless claims have sparked hopes that the Fed may ease off on interest rate hikes at its upcoming meeting.
The U.S. economy may achieve a soft landing, as strong labor market, cooling inflation, and consumer savings support economic health and mitigate the risk of a recession, despite the rise in interest rates.
Goldman Sachs has lowered its odds of a US recession in the next 12 months to 15% from 20%, citing the resilience of the economy, supportive income growth, and a balanced labor market, with Chief Economist Jan Hatzius suggesting a soft landing is possible and that further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve are unlikely.
US stocks dropped on Wednesday as fears of more Federal Reserve rate hikes circulated, with Big Tech names like Apple and Nvidia dragging major indexes lower. Boston Fed President Susan Collins warned that further policy tightening could be warranted, while the Fed's Beige Book indicated softer activity growth and a cooling labor market in July and August.
Despite recent optimism around the U.S. economy, Deutsche Bank analysts believe that a recession is more likely than a "soft landing" as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary conditions to curb inflation.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Goldman Sachs may be optimistic about a "soft landing" scenario for the US economy, but the author remains skeptical due to factors such as a deeply inverted yield curve, declining Leading Economic Indicators, challenges faced by the consumer, global growth concerns, and the lagging impact of the Fed's monetary policy, leading them to maintain a conservative portfolio allocation.
The stock market weakened slightly as investors remain uncertain ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting this week, with eyes on the tone taken by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell during the post-meeting media conference.
Investors are more focused on the release of new forecasts from the Federal Reserve, which will reveal their views on the prospect of an economic "soft landing" and the rate environment that will accompany it.
The dollar strengthens and stocks decline as the Federal Reserve delivers a "hawkish pause" during the Fed meeting, with updates on the interest-rate decision, dot plot, and Jerome Powell press conference.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of achieving a soft landing, but acknowledged that it is not the baseline expectation, as the central bank aims to execute a tightening campaign without triggering a widespread downturn.
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged while revising its forecasts for economic growth, unemployment, and inflation, indicating a "higher for longer" stance on interest rates and potentially only one more rate hike this year. The Fed aims to achieve a soft landing for the economy and believes it can withstand higher rates, but external complications such as rising oil prices and an auto strike could influence future decisions.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell is facing multiple threats to the economy, including the ongoing United Auto Workers strike, rising oil prices, the resumption of student loan payments, higher long-term interest rates, and a potential government shutdown.
The US economy may struggle to achieve a "soft landing" with low inflation and low unemployment due to several economic uncertainties and headwinds, including toughened lending standards and the resumption of student loan payments, according to experts.
The Federal Reserve is in a better position to deliver a soft landing for the U.S. economy due to facing different problems compared to the 2007-2008 financial crisis, according to F/m Investments CIO and President Alex Morris.
The recent stock market declines may indicate that the Federal Reserve's actions could result in future pain for the economy.
The U.S. economy is facing risks in 2024 as inflation remains high and interest rates are historically high, leading to concerns about a potential recession; however, the Federal Reserve is optimistic about achieving a soft landing and maintaining economic growth. Economists are divided on whether the Fed's measures will be effective in avoiding a severe recession, and investors are advised to proceed cautiously in their financial decisions.
The belief is that the Federal Reserve will engineer a soft landing for the economy, which is expected to result in a rise in the stock market.
