### Summary
The Australian dollar has weakened significantly against the US dollar, euro, and British pound due to factors such as the US economy's strength, China's weak economic rebound, and a shift in the link between commodity prices and the Australian dollar.
### Facts
- The Australian dollar has reached its lowest level against the US dollar since the global financial crisis in 2009.
- The dollar has also reached its lowest level against the euro since the global financial crisis.
- The value of the Australian dollar against the pound is at its weakest since the Brexit poll.
- The US dollar's strength and expectations of a higher interest rate have contributed to the Australian dollar's weakness.
- China's weak economic rebound and deflation concerns have also affected the Australian dollar.
- The link between commodity prices and the Australian dollar has become less reliable recently.
- The trajectory of Shanghai's top 300 companies share index may indicate the future of the Australian dollar.
- A weaker Australian dollar benefits export industries and overseas visitors, while importers may face challenges.
- A tumbling dollar could support economic growth through increased exports and reduced imports.
📉 The Australian dollar is at its lowest against major currencies since the global financial crisis.
🇺🇸 The US dollar's strength and expectations of a higher interest rate contribute to the Australian dollar's weakness.
🇨🇳 China's weak economic rebound and deflation concerns affect the Australian dollar.
📉 The link between commodity prices and the Australian dollar has become less reliable.
📈 A weaker Australian dollar benefits export industries and overseas visitors.
### Summary
NatWest expects further downside for the Australian dollar (AUD) due to weak Chinese economic activity, lack of significant policy response, and potential rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
### Facts
- 💪 Higher long-end rates, relative US growth outperformance, sticky front-end Fed pricing, and August seasonals are all factors supporting the US dollar (USD).
- 💼 Incremental stimulus from Chinese authorities may not be enough to halt the fall of AUD, especially with a slowing global growth and lack of FX reaction to China's monetary policy easing.
- 📉 The NWM China Stress Index indicates a further slowing of economic conditions in China.
- 🏗️ Demand for construction-related activities outside of China may fade in the coming months due to higher borrowing costs and reduced steel demand outlook for the US and Europe.
- 📉 Australian employment declined in July, but it's too early to assess the strength of the labor market based on one month of weak data.
- 💰 The increase in prices raises questions about whether CPI inflation in Australia will fall back to the target range.
- 💼 The RBA has retained the optionality for further rate hikes, but weakness in data complicates future rate hikes.
- 🌍 Overall weakness in the Chinese economy will continue to weigh on AUD, but major policy response/stimulus from Chinese authorities could pose a risk to the bearish view on AUD.
- 💼 One more rate hike by the RBA may not be enough to support AUD considering the weakness in China.
Gold and silver prices rise as the weaker U.S. dollar index and dip in U.S. Treasury yields attract futures traders and bargain hunters, while anxieties build over upcoming speeches from the Fed and ECB on future monetary policy direction and the potential shift in the Fed's inflation goal.
The US Dollar performed well against major currencies, with the British Pound, Euro, and Canadian Dollar underperforming, while the Chinese Yuan and Australian Dollar fared better; the Federal Reserve's indication of a higher terminal rate and potential further borrowing cost increases contributed to the market sentiment, leading to lower US equity markets; upcoming economic data includes consumer confidence, inflation gauges from key European countries, and manufacturing PMI gauges from China.
Gold and silver prices are trading near unchanged in quieter early U.S. trading as investors await the release of key economic reports, including the jobs report for August, while Asian and European stock markets edge higher and the U.S. dollar index strengthens slightly.
The improving economic outlook for the US has made gold less appealing to investors, but weakness in US consumers could still lead to a recession and boost the precious metal, while Chinese stimulus may support silver demand, according to Heraeus' precious metals report.
The US Dollar experienced a significant decline due to weak economic data and increased risk appetite, while the Euro and British Pound strengthened. The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar also performed well, and gold and cryptocurrencies rallied.
The US dollar experienced a major technical reversal due to a weaker JOLTs report, leading to a drop in US interest rates, while market positioning played a role in the price action; the focus now shifts to personal consumption figures and US jobs data, with the euro and sterling firm but most other G10 currencies softer, and emerging market currencies mixed. In Asia, most large bourses advanced, but Europe's Stoxx 600 fell after rallying in previous sessions, while US index futures traded softer; European bonds are selling up, gold is consolidating, and oil prices are firm. Australia's CPI slowed more than expected, China is expected to release the August PMI, and Japan reports July retail sales. The US dollar has seen no follow-through selling against the yen, yuan, or Australian dollar, while the euro and sterling staged impressive price action. The JOLTS report saw the dollar and US rates reverse lower, and today the US reports advanced merchandise trade figures for July, with the Canadian dollar as the worst performing G10 currency yesterday.
Gold and silver prices are higher in response to weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data, contributing to gold reaching a three-week high, while China's measures to stimulate its economy and positive sentiment in international stock markets also influence the market.
Gold prices decline slightly as the dollar remains strong, with investors awaiting further signals on the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy after an expected interest rate pause this month.
The U.S. dollar's dominance in the gold market may be losing momentum, potentially leading to new all-time highs for gold as the dollar weakens, according to market strategist Carley Garner. She expects the U.S. dollar index to hold resistance below 105 points and eventually retest support at 99 points, which could be a game changer for gold, potentially pushing prices to $2,600 an ounce. Garner also highlights the resilience of gold and the potential for a selloff if the Federal Reserve shifts to a more neutral monetary policy stance. However, she is not as optimistic about silver, preferring to focus on gold.
Gold gained as the dollar weakened against the yuan due to positive China economic data, although the possibility of further U.S. interest rate hikes kept investors cautious.
Gold and silver prices are higher as both markets rebound from multi-week lows, while stocks in Asia and Europe rise and U.S. stock indexes are expected to open mixed; China's economic data shows signs of a fragile economic recovery and the U.S. dollar weakens.
The U.S. dollar remains strong above the $105 mark, supported by the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and increased Treasury yields, while gold prices consolidate and oil prices rebound due to supply cuts and positive outlooks for the U.S. and China.
Gold and silver prices are down due to bearish outside market influences, including rising U.S. Treasury yields, a strengthening U.S. dollar, and lower crude oil prices, while the metals market bulls are also facing resistance from the Federal Reserve; however, safe-haven buying may increase if worrisome elements escalate.
The strength of the US dollar and rising bond yields are causing gold prices to fall to their lowest level since March, with some analysts predicting that the bearish momentum could push prices down further to their 2023 lows at $1,810 in the spot market.
Gold prices stabilize near a six-month low as the dollar remains strong and investors await U.S. economic data for insight into the Federal Reserve's interest rate plans.
Gold and silver prices are slightly higher in early US trading as short covering and a weaker US dollar support the metals; however, concerns over the US government shutdown and changing perceptions about interest rates continue to impact investor sentiment.
The moderating U.S. inflation pressure is helping gold prices hold steady, but it is not providing much new bullish momentum.
Gold and silver prices are falling due to a strong U.S. dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and upbeat risk attitudes, while Asian and European stocks are mixed, and the Bank of Japan is monitoring the depreciation of the yen against the U.S. dollar.
Gold and silver prices have remained stagnant for over three years despite high inflation and geopolitical turmoil, leading investors to consider the alternatives, such as holding cash, given the decline in the dollar's purchasing power and the potential for a looming recession and economic reckoning, making other conventional assets like bonds, equities, and real estate appear overvalued.
Bitcoin and gold are expected to thrive amidst fiscal problems in the US economy and a potential pivot from the Federal Reserve, according to macro investor Luke Gromen. Gromen also suggests that the launch of a gold-backed currency by the BRICS alliance may weaken the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.
Gold and silver prices remain near steady as the precious metals bulls struggle to stop the bleeding amidst a strong US dollar and high US Treasury yields, while Asian and European stocks are mixed and US stock indexes are expected to open narrowly mixed following the ouster of the Speaker of the House; traders are also looking ahead to Friday's September employment situation report from the Labor Department.
The US economy could be reaching a tipping point as bond yields rise, while gold remains relatively resilient but faces pressure from the bond market.
Precious metals prices have been declining recently due to the higher interest rate projections by the Federal Reserve, but the weakness in gold prices may also be influenced by China's internal market dynamics and its impact on global gold prices.
Gold prices are slightly lower after the US employment report for September shows stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls gains, indicating that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain its hawkish stance on monetary policy.
Gold and silver prices slightly decline after U.S. consumer inflation data comes in higher than expected, but tensions in the Middle East maintain a safe-haven bid for precious metals.
Gold and silver prices are weaker in early trading as a result of downside corrections and rising U.S. Treasury yields, while risk aversion and uncertainty in the Middle East and China's economic situation also contribute to the market's bearish sentiment.
Gold and silver prices have been boosted by geopolitical concerns and dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, but the path of least resistance for gold remains sideways to down unless there is a reversal in US Treasury yields.
Gold and silver prices are slightly down due to corrective pressure and profit taking, but overall market confidence remains high.
Gold and silver prices are lower due to corrective and consolidative price action, a stronger US dollar, lower crude oil prices, and an increase in US Treasury yields, while the absence of major military escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict has injected more risk appetite into the markets.
Gold and silver prices are slightly weaker due to the rally in the U.S. dollar index and an increase in U.S. Treasury yields, while Chinese stock markets are rallied by the government's efforts to stimulate the economy through bond issuance.
Gold and silver prices are weaker after a slightly stronger-than-expected U.S. economic report, which adds to the case for the Federal Reserve to keep raising interest rates.
