China's imports of thermal coal are expected to increase in August as seaborne prices remain competitive and domestic supplies are constrained, with robust demand for imported coal driven by increased thermal power generation and declining hydropower generation.
U.S. natural gas production reached a new high in 2022, surpassing Russia and Iran, while consumption increased due to a shift away from coal and growth in renewable energy.
In 2022, coal remained the dominant source of electricity generation, accounting for 35.4% of global power, followed by natural gas and hydroelectricity, while renewables experienced significant growth with wind, solar, and geothermal representing 14.4% of total electricity generation, and nuclear energy faced a decline due to various disruptions.
Demand for fossil fuels is expected to reach an all-time high before 2030, despite progress in the fight against climate change, according to Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency.
OPEC expects robust growth in global oil demand in 2023 and 2024, with pre-pandemic levels surpassing by 2023, due to signs of strong recovery in major economies despite challenges like high interest rates and inflation.
OPEC dismisses claims of peak oil and fossil fuel demand before 2030, stating that peak demand for oil, gas, and coal will not occur until the next decade, contrary to the International Energy Agency's recent projections.
Gasoline prices are rising due to oil supply cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as flooding in Libya, but some experts believe that increasing oil prices will not have a significant impact on the US economy and do not expect them to rise much higher in the next year or two due to factors such as increased US oil production, slow global economic growth, and the green energy transition. However, high oil prices can lead to higher inflation, potential recession, and could influence the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, but the impact may not be as severe as in the past, and some experts recommend investing in the energy transition and adopting a more defensive investment strategy.
Top Saudi Arabian and U.S. oil producers Aramco and Exxon Mobil have pushed back forecasts of peak oil demand and emphasized the need for continued investment in conventional oil and gas, stating that the energy transition will require more time and investment.
China's natural gas demand is expected to grow by 8% this year, higher than analysts' forecasts, due to recovering industrial demand and lower global prices, with LNG imports and piped gas imports also projected to increase by 10.9% and 10.7% respectively in 2023.
Electric vehicle sales are rapidly increasing worldwide, leading to a decline in gas- and diesel-powered vehicle sales, but the US government continues to project a growing demand for oil, raising concerns about the accuracy of these projections and the consequences if they are wrong.
Global demand for fossil fuels is expected to peak by 2030, but this alone will not be enough to limit global warming to the target of 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA highlights the need for a rapid expansion of renewable energy sources and a 25% decrease in fossil fuel demand by 2030, along with significant investments in clean energy and technologies such as carbon capture and storage. Despite progress in clean energy adoption, achieving the 1.5-degree target remains a challenging task.
Global fossil fuel demand needs to decrease by 25% by 2030 and 80% by 2050 to limit global warming and achieve climate change goals, according to the International Energy Agency's Net Zero Roadmap.
Despite pledges from large companies and banks to divest from coal, the dirty energy source continues to have unexpected staying power as smaller funds like Javelin Global Commodities fill the gap in coal investing, and global coal demand reached an all-time high in 2022 amid the energy crisis, surpassing the previous record set in 2013, according to a report by the International Energy Agency.
Oil demand is predicted to remain strong into 2024, with a substantial rate of growth expected despite the potential impact of electric vehicles.
OPEC has raised its long-term forecast for global oil demand, predicting that it will reach 116 million barrels per day by 2045 and requiring $14 trillion in investment to meet this upswing, despite the expansion of renewable energy technologies.
Europe could achieve energy independence from gas and oil imports by 2030 if governments and private investors are willing to spend €2 trillion on developing renewable energy sources, according to a study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The transition to a fully renewable energy system would lead to lower energy costs for consumers and increased resilience during geopolitical tensions.
