### Summary
The risk of a "real Lehman moment" is increasing in China due to a shadow banking crisis and declining property sales, according to Jefferies' global strategist Chris Wood.
### Facts
- đŁ Chinese asset manager Zhongzhi Enterprise's failure to make interest payments on wealth management products indicates a liquidity crisis and highlights the real estate sector's crisis.
- đ° Chinese equities are a value trap, says Wood.
- đ˘ Evergrande's problems were not a "Lehman moment" because they were induced by the authorities through the "Three Red Lines" policy.
- đŤ President Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaigns and last year's lockdowns have dampened entrepreneurial spirits and damaged China's command economy model.
- đ The residential property market's biggest downturn since privatization in the mid-1990s was undermined by lockdowns, even after the relaxation of the "Three Red Lines" policy.
- đź For those who believe China is in a "balance sheet recession," owning a dividend index and long government bonds is a recommended strategy.
### Summary
China's economic crisis, particularly in the real estate sector, has far-reaching implications beyond economic sectors, impacting households, consumer confidence, and international investor sentiment, posing a significant challenge for President Xi Jinping's leadership.
### Facts
- đ° Evergrande Group, one of China's highly indebted property giants, filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection in the U.S., underscoring the gravity of the situation.
- đŁ Brahma Chellaney, a strategic affairs expert, believes that China's real estate crisis presents a significant challenge for President Xi Jinping's leadership and may lead to increased risk-taking and potential crackdowns on protests.
- đ Evergrande's struggles are mirrored by Country Garden, another major player, which warned of up to a $7.6 billion first-half loss and apologized for misjudging market conditions.
- đ The real estate slump in China is part of a larger economic crisis, with structural constraints like an aging population and mounting debt adding to the woes, potentially hindering China's ambition to become a global economic superpower.
- đ Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a Fellow for China Studies, highlighted concerns of foreign investors regarding contagion effects from the real estate sector's financing practices and the state of China's shadow-banking system. The trust industry, valued at $2.9 trillion, has attracted regulatory attention as authorities seek to manage potential risks.
### Summary
Ray Dalio, a renowned investor, believes that China's struggling economy needs a significant debt restructuring, despite economists stating that Beijing won't intervene to support the failing property sector.
### Facts
- Ray Dalio currently has approximately $3 billion invested in Chinese businesses.
- China's struggling property sector, plagued by failing property giants and sinking house prices, is causing concerns about contagion in other industries.
- Beijing is unlikely to step in and prop up developers, even though the sector is described as the "single most important" industry on a global scale.
- China's debt has nearly doubled over the past five years, reaching about 66 trillion yuan ($9.3 trillion), which is more than half the country's annual economic output.
- Dalio suggests that China should undertake a massive debt restructuring, similar to what Zhu Rongji orchestrated in the late 1990s but on a larger scale.
- Dalio believes that China's restructuring would be easier than other countries' due to the majority of debt being held in the country's own currency.
- The two levers to facilitate the "beautiful deleveraging" process in China are deflationary defaults and restructurings, combined with the inflationary measure of printing money.
- Other countries, such as Japan, the United States, and Europe, will also need to deleverage eventually, but Dalio thinks China should take the first step.
- China is currently facing various alarming issues, including intervention in the currency markets, soaring youth joblessness, and a drop in land sales.
- China Evergrande, a major property developer, has filed for bankruptcy protection, and China's largest developer, Country Garden, is on the verge of default.
### Summary
The Chinese economy has slipped into deflationary mode, with retail sales, industrial production, and exports all missing forecasts. Shrinking domestic demand and a debt-fueled housing crisis are the main causes behind this slowdown.
### Facts
- đ Retail sales in July grew by 2.5% year-on-year, compared to 3.1% in June.
- đ Value-added industrial output expanded by 3.7% y-o-y, slowing from 4.4% growth in June.
- đ China's exports fell by 14.5% in July compared to the previous year, and imports dropped 12.4%.
- đź Overall unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in July, with youth unemployment at a record 21.3% in June.
- đ Consumer Price Index-based inflation dropped to (-)0.3%, indicating a deflationary situation.
- đ˘ China's debt is estimated at 282% of GDP, higher than that of the US.
### Causes of the slowdown
- The debt-fueled housing sector collapse, which contributes to 30% of China's GDP.
- Stringent zero-Covid strategy and lockdown measures that stifled the domestic economy and disrupted global supply chains.
- Geopolitical tensions and crackdowns on the tech sector, resulting in revenue losses and job cuts.
### Reaction of global markets
- The S&P 500 fell 1.2% following the grim Chinese data.
- US Treasury Secretary warns China's slowing economy is a risk factor for the US economy.
- Japanese stocks and the Indian Nifty were also impacted.
- China's central bank cut its benchmark lending rate, but investors were hoping for more significant stimulus measures.
### Global market concerns
- China's struggle to achieve the 5% growth target may impact global demand.
- China is the world's largest manufacturing economy and consumer of key commodities.
- A slowdown in China could affect global growth, with the IMF's forecast of 35% growth contribution by China seeming unlikely.
### Impact on India
- India's aim to compete with China in the global supply chain could benefit if Chinese exports decline.
- However, if China cuts back on commodity production due to slowing domestic demand, it may push commodity prices higher.
### Summary
The global economy is showing signs of decoupling, with the US economy remaining strong and China's economy disappointing at the margin. The recent data suggests that the US economy is resilient, with consumption and other indicators pointing in a positive direction. However, there are concerns about the bear steepening of the US curve and the repricing of the long end of the curve. In contrast, China's economy continues to struggle, with weak data and monetary policy easing. Japan has surprised with positive data, but there are questions about whether the current inflation shift will lead to tighter monetary policy. Overall, there are concerns about a potential global economic recession and its impact on various economies.
### Facts
- đ° Despite the decoupling of the US and China economies, concerns remain about the negative impact of a China slowdown on global growth.
- đš Recent data show that the US economy, particularly consumption, remains resilient.
- đ The bear steepening of the US curve and the repricing of the long end of the curve are causing concerns.
- đ¨đł In China, weak data on consumption and investment and declining house prices continue to affect the economy. The PBoC has eased monetary policy.
- đŻđľ Japan's 2Q data surprised with strong export growth, but there are concerns about the impact of a potential inflation shift on global yields.
- đ The global economy is at risk of recession, with concerns about the impact on emerging market economies and the US economy.
### Summary
Growing concerns about global economic growth and uncertainties in monetary policy have led to turbulence in financial markets, with rising bond yields and a decline in equity markets. Key factors affecting growth include interest rates, bond yields, and access to funds, which may result in a credit crunch and a more risk-averse environment in capital markets. China's shift towards self-sufficiency, combined with a more prudent policy environment, slower population growth, and trade sanctions, will lead to slower and more erratic growth in the country. Although there are near-term concerns, the longer-term outlook for global growth remains positive.
### Facts
- Global economic growth is a concern, reflected in rising bond yields and a decline in equity markets.
- Policymakers, particularly in the US, are worried about overtightening monetary policy.
- Western economies, including the UK, have proven resilient despite expectations of a recession.
- Lower inflation will boost spending power, but growth will depend on where interest rates and bond yields settle.
- Businesses face challenges in raising funds due to a credit crunch, tough lending conditions, and a risk-averse capital market environment.
- The International Monetary Fund forecasts global growth to slow from 3.5% last year to 3% this year and next, with Asia being a major driver.
- Concerns about deflation in China exist, but low inflation is more likely.
- China's shift towards self-sufficiency in response to trade wars has coincided with a more prudent policy environment and the need to curb inflation and manage debt overhang.
- A shrinking population and structural changes in China will result in slower and more erratic growth.
- Private sector activity remains strong in Asia, and Japan's economy is experiencing an economic rebound.
- Western economies previously experienced a prolonged period of cheap money, which led to imbalances and misallocation of capital.
- Prudent monetary policy in some emerging economies provides more room to act in response to economic weakness.
- Concerns exist regarding rising policy rates in the US, UK, and euro area and the tightening of central banks' balance sheets.
- The definition of a risk-free asset is being questioned, as government bonds, previously considered safe, have witnessed negative total returns.
- There has been a rise in shadow banking and non-bank financial institutions, with collateral in the form of government bonds playing a crucial role.
Overall, the focus is shifting from inflation to growth, and future policy rates may need to settle at a high level. High levels of public and private debt globally limit policy maneuverability and expose individuals and firms to higher interest rates.
China's economy is facing a downward spiral due to a crisis in the debt-laden property sector, prompting seven city banks to reduce their growth forecasts for the country; concerns include falling into deflation, high unemployment rates, and the need for more proactive government support.
China's largest private real estate developer, Country Garden, is in financial trouble, missing bond payments and posting a record loss, signaling further concerns about the country's property sector as housing prices and foreclosures continue to rise, while other economic indicators, such as industrial output and retail sales, fall short of expectations; these developments are raising concerns about the overall health of China's economy and its future growth prospects.
China's economy is at risk of entering a debt-deflation loop, similar to Japan's in the 1990s, but this can be avoided if policymakers keep interest rates below a crucial level to stimulate economic growth.
China's unexpected economic slowdown, driven by excessive investment in the property sector and local government spending, is leading experts to question whether a collapse is imminent, although they believe a sudden collapse is unlikely due to China's controlled financial system; however, the slowdown will have implications for global growth and emerging markets, particularly if the U.S. enters a recession next year.
China's economic slowdown is causing alarm across the world, as it is expected to have a negative impact on global economic growth, leading to reduced imports and trade, falling commodity prices, a deflationary effect on global goods prices, and a decline in tourism and luxury spending.
Investors are becoming increasingly concerned about the state of China's economy as informal gauges, such as PMI surveys and soft surveys, indicate a deep-seated confidence problem and a potential miss of the country's 5% growth target this year, leading to a retreat from global assets exposed to the slowdown.
Forecasters have decreased their growth expectations for China due to deflation, rising youth unemployment, and a property-market crisis, with GDP predicted to rise by only 5.1% in 2023 and 4.5% in 2024.
China's economic slowdown is being caused by a property market downturn, softening demand for exports, and low household spending, which poses risks to financial stability and could lead to deflation and deeper debt problems. Economists are uncertain if the government's current measures, like interest rate cuts, will be enough to boost consumption and meet growth targets. Structural reforms and measures to increase household consumption are needed to address the imbalance in the economy.
China's economy is facing a "new new normal" due to a declining population and weak confidence in its post-Covid recovery, prompting calls for systemic reforms to revive growth. The country's aging and shrinking population poses challenges to productivity, consumption, and long-term growth potential, leading major investment banks to cut growth forecasts. Policy adviser Cai Fang suggests relaxing population controls and focusing on expanding consumption as strategies to boost economic growth.
The prospect of a prolonged economic slump in China poses a serious threat to global growth, potentially changing fundamental aspects of the global economy, affecting debt markets and supply chains, and impacting emerging markets and the United States.
China's economy is showing signs of slowing down, including a decrease in GDP growth rate, declining exports, deflationary consumer price index, high youth unemployment, a weakening yuan, and a decrease in new loans, which could have global implications.
China's economic growth has slowed but has not collapsed, and while there are concerns about financial risks and a potential property crisis, there are also bright spots such as the growth of the new energy and technology sectors that could boost the economy.
Policymakers expect slower growth in China, potentially below 4%, as the country transitions to a consumption-driven economy, which could have a negative impact on the global economy and alleviate inflationary pressures.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank have pledged to increase their cooperation in addressing climate change, debt vulnerabilities, and digital transitions, stating that they are well-positioned to contribute to tackling these challenges.
China is showing signs of a balance-sheet recession similar to Japan's, with accumulating debt and falling house prices, but there are key differences that suggest it may not face the same fate. State-owned enterprises and property developers account for much of China's debt, and households have low debt relative to their assets. However, the Chinese government's reluctance to increase spending could prolong the recession.
China's economy is expected to grow less than previously anticipated due to struggles in the property market, leading economists to predict further downgrades and posing risks to both the domestic and global economy.
The global debt-to-GDP ratio has decreased for the second consecutive year, but the decline may be coming to an end as the post-COVID growth surge fades, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). China and the United States both have high debt-to-GDP ratios, and the IMF has called for strategies to reduce debt vulnerabilities in various sectors.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen states that U.S. growth needs to slow to its potential rate in order to bring inflation back to target levels, as the robust economy has been growing above potential since emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic. Yellen also expects China to use its fiscal and monetary policy space to avoid a major economic slowdown and minimize spillover effects on the U.S. economy.
China's urbanization drive is slowing down, which is expected to further impact the struggling property sector that has been plagued by debt problems and declining consumer confidence. Managing the excess housing supply and diversifying the economy away from reliance on the property sector are crucial for a healthier Chinese economy.
China's economic slowdown is unlikely to trigger a global catastrophe, but multinational corporations and those indirectly linked to China will still feel the effects as household spending decreases and demand for raw materials drops. China's reduced investment abroad may affect developing countries' infrastructure projects, while the impact on China's foreign policy remains uncertain. However, concerns of a financial contagion similar to the 2008 crisis are deemed unlikely due to differences in China's financial infrastructure. While the extent of the impact is unclear, local concerns can still have unforeseen effects on the global economy.
China's economic outlook, particularly for the real estate sector, is expected to become clearer in the last three months of the year, with potential government support and loosening of restrictions to stabilize the housing market and allow the economy to recover fully by mid-2024. However, economists predict that real estate growth will remain weak and prices may fall gradually, as significant price declines could have adverse social consequences.
The International Monetary Fund believes that China's economy can accelerate growth over the medium term through reforming its economy to shift towards consumer spending from investment, although recent data shows signs of stabilization.
China's growth is expected to slow down in 2024, with the World Bank attributing the gloomy outlook to a slowdown in China, weak indicators, stagnant house prices, increased household debt, and trade tensions with the US.
China is facing a "grinding" economic slowdown with a narrow path for policymakers to prevent further decline, as its property sector and growth rate enter into structural decline and stimulus measures can only partially offset the weakening consumption and investment. However, it is unlikely to experience a Japan-like stagnation but rather a "Sinification" scenario with 3%-4% GDP growth over the next few years.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that if geopolitical fragmentation continues to intensify, China may suffer more than the West due to the global commodity market becoming more fragmented since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, leading to price volatility, threats to food security, and increased costs for the clean energy transition.
The World Bank has lowered its GDP growth estimate for China in 2024 due to elevated debt and weakness in the property sector, which has been hit by a downturn leading to unfinished homes and a decline in housing prices. While the impact on the overall economy may be limited, smaller regional banks and local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) are at higher risk. Policymakers have signaled a shift in their approach to the property market, and the long-term prospects of the sector may be hindered by demographic factors and a high rate of home ownership. However, experts believe that real estate will remain an important industry in the future.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that fears of a global recession caused by the Ukraine war and a cost of living crisis are unfounded, as global growth has shown resilience, although it warns against central banks cutting interest rates too quickly.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects global economy to expand by 3% in 2023, but warns that growth remains weak and risks are tilted to the downside, with weaker recoveries expected in Europe and China, while inflation is projected to remain high and commodity prices pose a serious risk.
The International Monetary Fund expects anemic growth and various challenges for the global economy, including volatility in commodities markets and China's troubled property sector, despite easing inflationary pressures.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Pakistan's economy to perform better than expected, with a growth of 2.5% this year and 5% in the next fiscal year, despite macroeconomic challenges, surpassing projections from other multilateral agencies. The IMF also maintains a global growth forecast of 3% for this year but warns of high inflation and downgrades outlooks for China and Germany.
The IMF predicts that the world economy will grow at a slower pace of 2.9% in 2024 due to ongoing risks from higher interest rates, the war in Ukraine, and the eruption of violence in the Middle East, highlighting the need for tight monetary policy to combat inflation.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that inflation will remain high through 2025 for most central banks, with Europe and the UK experiencing worse inflation than the United States, which has downward-pointing indicators for core inflation; Chief Investment Officer Ahmed Riesgo suggests adding duration to investment portfolios while maintaining cash and T-bills, implementing a barbell strategy in the Treasury curve, and increasing the quality of holdings and factor exposure to quality in equities due to the heightened risk of a US recession in 2024.
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