1. Home
  2. >
  3. Economy 🏛️
Posted

India's Q1 GDP Grows 7.8% But Controversy Remains Over Data Calculation Method

  • India's GDP grew 7.8% in Q1 FY24 based on income approach, expenditure approach would have shown lower growth.

  • Finance Ministry dismissed criticism of inflated GDP numbers, said income approach consistently used to compute growth.

  • Nominal GDP growth lower than real GDP growth due to contracting WPI, will normalize as base effect disappears.

  • PMI, bank credit growth, consumption indicate economic activity is improving, GDP numbers may understate reality.

  • International agencies revised up India's FY24 growth forecasts after Q1 data, underlying activity not weak.

cnbctv18.com
Relevant topic timeline:
India's GDP grew at a rate of 7.8% in the April-June period, fueled by a strong services sector and government infrastructure spending.
India's economic growth is estimated to be closer to 7.5%, with the country's first quarter growth at 7.8%, reflecting India's increasing stature in the world.
India's Ministry of Finance defended its GDP data against critics, but also admitted that its numbers were not sufficient to assess economic activity, following recent criticism from various quarters. The criticism focused on the government's method of calculating GDP and its failure to accurately capture the impact of inflation. The ministry argued that it consistently uses the income side approach and that critics are simply trying to find fault with the Indian economy.
The Asian Development Bank has lowered India's GDP growth forecast for FY 2023-24 to 6.3% due to the impact of extreme rainfall patterns on agriculture, while maintaining a growth projection of 6.7% for FY 2024-25, citing corporate profitability and strong bank credit as key factors. Additionally, the bank expects inflation to moderate and retail sales to be affected by food inflation, while India's external trade is expected to be affected by weak global demand. Despite these challenges, India's GDP growth outlook remains higher compared to its Asian peers.
India's GDP growth is expected to moderate over the next few quarters, with a projected growth rate of around 7% in the second quarter and a slowdown to around 4.5-5% in the second half of the year. Factors such as the fluctuating monsoon, lower reservoir levels, cautious rural demand, and the impact of monetary tightening are likely to contribute to this moderation in growth. The writer predicts a full-year GDP expansion of 6%, with future growth depending on factors such as the outcome of the next election.