Main financial assets discussed: Emerging market stocks, Indian stocks, iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA), iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF (SMIN), WisdomTree India Earnings Fund ETF (EPI)
Top 3 key points:
1. Emerging markets have outperformed all other global sectors, including the United States, since the late 1980s.
2. Emerging markets are currently undervalued compared to the U.S. market, making them an attractive investment opportunity.
3. India is a particularly promising emerging market due to its balanced economy, improving standards of living, and strong demographic advantages.
Recommended actions: **Buy** India Small Caps (SMIN) ETF.
### Summary
India's retail inflation in July rose to 7.44%, higher than market expectations, and is expected to remain elevated in Q3. The global currency market is experiencing significant turbulence, with the USD appreciating despite economic weaknesses. Heightened inflation and volatility in the currency market pose risks to the Indian market.
### Facts
- India's retail inflation in July was 7.44%, exceeding market expectations.
- Elevated inflation is expected to continue in Q3.
- The global currency market is experiencing turmoil, with the USD appreciating despite economic frailty.
- FII outflows have increased, but India's equity market is performing better than other emerging markets.
- The RBI has revised its inflation forecast upward and expects inflation to decrease to 5.7% in Q3.
- High interest rates and inflation are expected to impact corporate earnings growth and valuation.
- India's one-year forward P/E valuation has decreased from 20x to 18.5x.
- Bond yields have increased, leading to a divestment of equities and acquisition of bonds.
- The domestic market is supported by restrained FII divestment, robust purchasing by DIIs and retail participants, and outperformance compared to other emerging markets.
- Selling in global equities has increased due to concerns of deflation and defaults in China's realty and finance sectors.
- The author expects the selling from FIIs to continue in the short-term due to elevated global bond yields, US credit downgrade, and slowdown in emerging markets, but India will continue to outperform.
- In the last month, the MSCI World index was down 4.2% compared to MSCI India's 1.85% decrease.
India's sovereign credit rating, currently at the lowest investment grade, should be upgraded due to its status as the fastest-growing economy and its potential to become the third largest economy in the world, according to Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at Bank of Baroda. He highlights the importance of a good credit rating and emphasizes that India is an attractive destination for foreign investors. Sabnavis believes India deserves an upgrade to at least an A rating.
Foreign portfolio investment inflows into the Indian markets slowed down in August due to concerns about rate hikes in the US, resulting in higher bond yields and a stronger dollar, but India remains an attractive market for investors compared to other emerging markets.
India achieved an 80% financial inclusion rate in just six years with the use of Digital Payment Infrastructure (DPI) such as Jan Dhan Bank accounts, Aadhaar, and Mobile phones, resulting in decreased customer onboarding costs and significant savings, according to a G20 policy document prepared by the World Bank.
India's record stock market valuation and increasing foreign inflows are positioning the country as a safe and attractive investment option, especially amidst the economic troubles and struggling financial markets of its neighboring rival, China.
India's positive structural factors, including economic growth translation, supply chain dynamics, and a youthful demographic, make it a top investment choice for HSBC and Morgan Stanley.
India has successfully achieved its finance track objectives during its G20 presidency, including strengthening Multilateral Development Banks, creating a global regulatory framework for crypto assets, promoting financial inclusion through digital infrastructure, resolving debt for lower and middle-income countries, and financing sustainable cities, among other accomplishments, according to Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.
India's stock market has seen a rally as strong macroeconomic fundamentals and China's economic slowdown keep foreign investors invested in Indian stocks, while a surge in retail investor interest continues to drive the market.
The Reserve Bank of India is expected to buy dollars and sell bonds in order to manage the liquidity and forex impact of India's inclusion in global bond indices, according to JPMorgan's head of emerging market economics.
Long-term investors have an opportunity to invest in growth stocks like Visa, Western Digital, Jazz Pharmaceuticals, and Nio amidst the bear market dip in the Nasdaq.
India's inclusion in JPMorgan's emerging market bond index signals major changes in the global capital markets, boosting capital inflows by $20-25 billion and improving liquidity for Indian assets and the rupee, ultimately attracting more investment. India's rise in the global economy will have significant consequences, positioning it as a nonaligned player and surpassing China in certain measures, while ongoing disputes with Pakistan and China continue to shape its geopolitical landscape.
Visa's stock has outperformed the market by more than five times since its IPO in 2008, thanks to its success in the digital payment industry and its ability to allocate capital effectively, demonstrated by its consistently high ROIC, which has remained strong even during challenging times such as the pandemic and rising interest rates. Visa's investments in data security, financial software start-ups, and blockchain technology have also contributed to its growth, and with the ongoing shift towards digital systems, the company is well-positioned to continue generating significant returns on its investments in the future.
