Main financial assets discussed: Emerging market stocks, Indian stocks, iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA), iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF (SMIN), WisdomTree India Earnings Fund ETF (EPI)
Top 3 key points:
1. Emerging markets have outperformed all other global sectors, including the United States, since the late 1980s.
2. Emerging markets are currently undervalued compared to the U.S. market, making them an attractive investment opportunity.
3. India is a particularly promising emerging market due to its balanced economy, improving standards of living, and strong demographic advantages.
Recommended actions: **Buy** India Small Caps (SMIN) ETF.
### Summary
Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal stated that despite short-term inflation hiccups, India has achieved nearly a decade of controlled inflation, offering the lowest rates in the country's history.
### Facts
- 💰 Headline retail inflation reached a 15-month high of 7.44% in July, surpassing economists' expectations of 6.6%.
- 🌽 Vegetable prices and sustained cost pressures in staples like cereals and pulses contributed to the high Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July.
- 🍅 The government implemented various measures to curb food price rise, including distribution of discounted tomatoes and conducting e-auctions for rice and wheat.
- 💼 Commerce Minister Goyal expressed confidence in India's economy, highlighting comfortable foreign exchange reserves and high growth.
- 🌍 With a young demographic dividend, India aims to become a $35-trillion economy and one of the world's top three economies in the next 30 years.
- 📈 India is currently the fastest-growing economy and is projected to achieve a GDP growth of 6.5% for the current financial year.
- 🇮🇳 The current government inherited challenges such as unpaid oil bond debt, high interest costs, and faltering exports from the previous government.
- 🌱 Goyal emphasized the importance of sustainable and inclusive growth alongside value creation for shareholders.
### Summary
Under the rivalry between the US and China, many middle and small powers are making their own mark on the international order by reshaping the world economy, affecting the global balance of power, and increasing their economic weight, military potential, and diplomatic stature. These changes have been caused by unhappiness with globalization, the risks of overreliance on rivals for vital supplies, and the rise of China.
### Facts
- The unhappiness with globalization in the West, especially in America, has caused economic anxiety, social discontent, and political backlash.
- Covid-19 exposed the risks of overreliance on another country, especially a rival, for vital supplies.
- Russia's invasion of Ukraine revealed the EU's dependence on Moscow for energy.
- The rise of China has rattled the US and other countries, leading to the search for a new geo-economics.
- US allies in the Indo-Pacific are strengthening their defenses through military and technological cooperation with Washington.
- Geo-economics and geopolitics have merged, with the US leading in redefining globalization that does not harm national security, technological supremacy, and economic leadership.
- India is at the crossroads of new geo-economics and geopolitics, being America's natural geopolitical partner and an attractive partner in geo-economics.
- Middle powers like India are benefiting by aligning themselves with the US and forming independent groupings at the global or regional levels.
- Many players are multi-aligning and multi-networking through mini forums, ad hoc groupings, and shifting coalitions, making the international order very fluid.
### Summary
India's retail inflation in July rose to 7.44%, higher than market expectations, and is expected to remain elevated in Q3. The global currency market is experiencing significant turbulence, with the USD appreciating despite economic weaknesses. Heightened inflation and volatility in the currency market pose risks to the Indian market.
### Facts
- India's retail inflation in July was 7.44%, exceeding market expectations.
- Elevated inflation is expected to continue in Q3.
- The global currency market is experiencing turmoil, with the USD appreciating despite economic frailty.
- FII outflows have increased, but India's equity market is performing better than other emerging markets.
- The RBI has revised its inflation forecast upward and expects inflation to decrease to 5.7% in Q3.
- High interest rates and inflation are expected to impact corporate earnings growth and valuation.
- India's one-year forward P/E valuation has decreased from 20x to 18.5x.
- Bond yields have increased, leading to a divestment of equities and acquisition of bonds.
- The domestic market is supported by restrained FII divestment, robust purchasing by DIIs and retail participants, and outperformance compared to other emerging markets.
- Selling in global equities has increased due to concerns of deflation and defaults in China's realty and finance sectors.
- The author expects the selling from FIIs to continue in the short-term due to elevated global bond yields, US credit downgrade, and slowdown in emerging markets, but India will continue to outperform.
- In the last month, the MSCI World index was down 4.2% compared to MSCI India's 1.85% decrease.
### Summary
Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal believes that India will become the engine of global growth, with its economy projected to reach $35 trillion by 2047. India's young population and vibrant democracy are key factors contributing to its sustainable and inclusive growth.
### Facts
- India is expected to become the growth engine of the world, according to Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal.
- The country's GDP is projected to reach $35 trillion by 2047, offering significant business opportunities.
- With a population of 1.4 billion people, India recently surpassed China as the world's most populous country.
- India's young population, with over 600 million people aged between 18 and 35, is expected to continue for at least the next few decades.
- India is estimated to provide 24.3% of the incremental global workforce over the next decade.
- The country's digital economy has grown rapidly, with initiatives like the Aadhaar program and the Skill India program promoting digital literacy and skills development.
- India aims to create sustainable and inclusive growth, focusing on value creation and becoming a matter of pride and envy.
🇮🇳💼🌍📈🌱
### Summary
India's total exports and imports of goods and services surpassed $800 billion in the first half of 2023, with a healthy growth in the services sector offsetting a slowdown in global demand.
### Facts
- 📈 Exports of goods and services rose by 1.5% to $385.4 billion in January-June 2023 compared to the same period in 2022.
- 📉 Imports declined by 5.9% to $415.5 billion during the first half of 2023, compared to January-June 2022.
- 💵 Standalone goods exports dropped by 8.1% to $218.7 billion, while imports contracted by 8.3% to $325.7 billion.
- 💼 Services exports grew by 17.7% to $166.7 billion, while imports rose by 3.7% to $89.8 billion during the six-month period.
- 💰 The depreciation of the Indian Rupee didn't prevent the decline in merchandise exports, and weak global demand and loss of competitiveness in labor-intensive sectors contributed to the modest decline.
- 🌍 Several factors, including conflicts, inflation, monetary policies, and financial uncertainty, are expected to weaken world trade in 2023.
- 🛡️ India should focus on increasing product quality and supply chain competitiveness, retain policy space in free trade agreements and Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF), and be prepared to respond to unilateral policy decisions.
- 📊 Among the product categories contributing to India's exports, 11 out of 29 registered positive export growth, while 18 declined during January-June 2023.
- 📱 Smartphone exports surged to $7.5 billion in the first half of 2023, up from $2.5 billion in the same period in 2022.
- 🌐 India's exports declined in 134 of the 240 countries it exports goods to, with major declines observed in the USA, UAE, China, Bangladesh, and Germany.
- 🌐 India's export promotion should focus on the 41 countries where its exports exceed $1 billion, accounting for 87% of its exports.
- 👥 The top 15 countries with which India has the highest trade deficit include China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Switzerland.
- 📉 The share of free trade agreement partners in India's merchandise exports decreased from 30.1% in the first half of 2022 to 26.8% in 2023.
- ⛽ Import of crude petroleum declined by 7.6% to $73.2 billion in January-June 2023, with Russia's share in India's import of petroleum crude increasing significantly.
- 🌍 Import growth from major suppliers like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE declined during this period.
Oil India Ltd. has seen a significant increase in market capitalization, outperforming its peers in the oil and gas industry and the benchmark index, due to a surge in its stock and positive earnings reports, as global oil prices are expected to rise.
India is positioning itself as an alternative to China in the global supply chain, aiming to become a major manufacturing hub and increase its role in the production of goods, as the world seeks solutions to supply chain disruptions caused by health crises and geopolitical events.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's exchange with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the BRICS summit in South Africa suggests a potential thawing of the financial relationship between the two countries, with India showing interest in a larger Chinese presence in its businesses and a softening of its screening policy for investments.
India's sovereign credit rating, currently at the lowest investment grade, should be upgraded due to its status as the fastest-growing economy and its potential to become the third largest economy in the world, according to Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at Bank of Baroda. He highlights the importance of a good credit rating and emphasizes that India is an attractive destination for foreign investors. Sabnavis believes India deserves an upgrade to at least an A rating.
Emerging markets must rebuild fiscal buffers, diversify trade, and prepare for the costs of climate change, according to the IMF's deputy managing director, Gita Gopinath, who highlighted the challenges of rising geopolitical fragmentation and financial conditions, as well as the need for countries to strengthen their monetary policy frameworks and protect against climate-related financial risks.
Foreign portfolio investment inflows into the Indian markets slowed down in August due to concerns about rate hikes in the US, resulting in higher bond yields and a stronger dollar, but India remains an attractive market for investors compared to other emerging markets.
India's economic rise is seen as inevitable due to factors such as a consumer boom, context-appropriate innovation, a green transition, a demographic dividend, access to finance, major infrastructure upgrades, policy reforms, geopolitical positioning, and a diaspora dividend, although challenges such as unbalanced growth, unrealized demographic potential, and unrealized ease-of-business and innovation potential still need to be addressed.
India's record stock market valuation and increasing foreign inflows are positioning the country as a safe and attractive investment option, especially amidst the economic troubles and struggling financial markets of its neighboring rival, China.
India's positive structural factors, including economic growth translation, supply chain dynamics, and a youthful demographic, make it a top investment choice for HSBC and Morgan Stanley.
India, along with the US and Europe, successfully countered China's global influence at the recent G20 summit, bolstering India's rising power and giving a boost to the US-led world order.
India's stock market has seen a rally as strong macroeconomic fundamentals and China's economic slowdown keep foreign investors invested in Indian stocks, while a surge in retail investor interest continues to drive the market.
U.S. and European firms are shifting investment away from China to other developing markets, with India receiving the majority of redirected foreign capital, due to concerns over China's business environment, economic recovery, and politics. However, diversification is unlikely to result in a rapid decline in exposure to China as the markets foreign firms are investing in are still heavily reliant on trade and investment with China.
Investors may want to gain exposure to emerging markets in 2023 due to their high growth potential, the potential for diversification and offsetting of FX impacts, China's policy shifts supporting growth, the ability to compound returns through dividends, and the potential reversal of the MSCI index.
Emerging markets, particularly China, are facing challenges such as weak economic activity, real estate debt issues, regulatory environment, and market concentration, while the U.S. market is performing well; however, emerging markets outside of China, like India, are showing promise due to supply chain diversification, infrastructure investment opportunities, and a pro-business government. Other attractive markets include Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia.
China's economy has entered deflation territory and the debt crisis has worsened, while India's economy is thriving with GDP growth expected to exceed 7% and unemployment rates at a 12-year low; it is predicted that India will surpass China in per capita income by 2044 due to factors such as female education expansion, labor force growth, and higher total factor productivity growth.
The latest PMI data shows a contraction in developed markets, while emerging markets continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace, indicating overall solid performance in the third quarter of 2023. However, new export orders for emerging market manufacturing contracts at a slower rate, and India remains a bright spot amid the global headwinds.
With the right reforms, India has the potential to become the next engine of global growth, benefiting from major economic re-alignments caused by China's slowdown and the US diversifying its supply chains. Major corporations are already investing in India, recognizing its potential. However, India needs to overcome challenges such as high tariffs, infrastructure improvements, and regional cooperation to fully realize its manufacturing potential and attract foreign investment.
A significant outflow of capital from Chinese stocks and bonds is reducing the market's influence in global portfolios and speeding up its decoupling from the rest of the globe, according to a report by the Times of India.
The Indian government bond market is set to receive significant foreign fund inflows and experience a lower yield curve after JPMorgan announces the inclusion of India's sovereign bonds in its emerging markets index, potentially resulting in inflows of $40-50 billion in the medium term and lower borrowing costs for the economy.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered its GDP forecast for India for the fiscal year 2023-2024 due to a slowdown in exports and potential disruptions in agricultural output, but expects growth to be fueled by increased private investment and industrial production in the following year. The ADB also suggests that larger inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) could surpass expectations and boost economic growth in FY25, particularly in the manufacturing sector.
India's inclusion in the emerging market bond index is considered inevitable and comes at a good time for the country, as it will bring in stable dollar inflows and improve the health of the bond market.
India is expected to be one of the fastest-growing markets for JPMorgan in the Asia Pacific region next year, as companies look to diversify their supply chains beyond China.
The Reserve Bank of India is expected to buy dollars and sell bonds in order to manage the liquidity and forex impact of India's inclusion in global bond indices, according to JPMorgan's head of emerging market economics.
The global markets, including U.S. and Asian markets, are caught in a cycle of rising bond yields, a strong dollar, higher oil prices, and decreasing risk appetite, leading to fragile equity markets and deepening growth fears.
Indian banks are becoming increasingly attractive to global investors due to higher credit growth, improved margins, and stable asset quality, with a significant rise in the total market value of foreign institutional investors' holdings in Indian banks. The country's economic growth prospects, solid performance of lenders, and the growth and profitability enabled by digitalization are driving this investor interest.
India has the opportunity to exert influence over China by providing small loans to heavily indebted countries, which would give India a seat at the negotiating table and enable them to demand debt reductions from China.
Tensions between the West and China are impacting global markets, leading to potential inflation and higher interest rates, while presenting opportunities for emerging nations and tech giants; strategies such as bringing manufacturing home and "friendshoring" are being pursued, with India viewed as a strong competitor to China in manufacturing; the clash between China and the West also has implications for sectors such as semiconductors, luxury goods, and investment in China; investors are divided on how to approach the Chinese market.
China's economic slowdown, driven by a real estate crisis and prolonged Covid-19 measures, is raising doubts about its status as the largest economy in the world by 2030, while India is emerging as a promising economic powerhouse and attracting significant investments.
Asia's competitive advantage has shifted from cheap labor to industrial services, including logistics, waste management, and data centers, according to a report by KKR's heads of global and Asia macro, who believe that the demand for infrastructure and logistics in countries like India, China, Japan, and others will continue to accelerate. Japan, in particular, is experiencing a capex cycle and corporate reform that is boosting shareholder returns, making it an attractive investment opportunity. Meanwhile, India is witnessing significant growth in infrastructure investment and exports, leading to increased productivity and economic growth. China's economy is undergoing a transition, with a growing digital economy and emphasis on decarbonization.
India's economy needs to grow at a rate of 8% per year and focus on investment in traditional sectors in order to surpass China as the largest contributor to the global economy, according to Barclays.
India's recent economic gains are unlikely to surpass China as the world economy's main growth engine, according to HSBC Holdings Plc, as India currently has too few economic drivers and China's importance cannot be easily replaced; however, HSBC does expect India to make significant contributions to global demand for commodities, consumption, and capital goods.
JPMorgan predicts that India will become the world's third-largest economy by 2027 and reach a GDP of $7 trillion by 2030, with manufacturing and exports playing a significant role in its growth. The managing director also expresses optimism about China's economic trajectory and suggests potential opportunities in specific sectors. China is considering implementing a stimulus initiative and exploring the creation of a stock stabilization fund to boost investor confidence.
Foreign fund outflows from Indian equities, driven by a rise in U.S. bond yields and Middle East geopolitical tensions, have impacted commodities and caused uncertainty, with the possibility of a rebound in the market dependent on various factors such as the evolution of GDP growth and inflation, according to HSBC Global Research.
Despite declining exports and imports, the US has become India's biggest trading partner in the first half of the current fiscal year, surpassing China, and trade experts anticipate further growth in bilateral trade in the coming years.
India has surpassed China as the world's most populous nation and the fastest-growing large economy, attracting global investors who are shifting their focus from China to India due to higher expected returns, driven by India's consumer boom and young workforce.
India is not significantly affected by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East due to continuous inflows from domestic investors, making it a favorable long-term market for stock investments, according to Gautam Trivedi, co-founder and managing director at Napean Capital. He also highlights the performance of private sector banks and concerns about non-banking financial companies in the Indian market.
India is formulating a strategy to reduce its dependence on China for supply chains, with the Niti Aayog focusing on reducing the trade deficit and safeguarding against geopolitical risks, as countries worldwide explore alternatives to minimize vulnerabilities caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Global hedge funds are increasingly setting up shop in India, attracted by its growing depth and liquidity, as well as its emergence as an alternative to investing in China, with India's stock market valuation doubling in just three years to $3.8 trillion in September.
