### Summary
The upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium is expected to deliver a hawkish but cautious message from the Fed chair, with a focus on the strong US economy, resilient US consumer, and persistent inflation.
### Facts
- 📉 Last year, the markets experienced a major selloff following the Fed chair's unexpectedly hawkish speech at Jackson Hole.
- 💪 This year, the markets are pessimistic due to the strong US economic numbers, including a predicted 5.8% growth for Q3.
- 🎙️ The Fed chair will likely discuss the possibility of a November rate hike but may roil the markets if he mentions further rate hikes.
- 🌐 The slowdown of China's economy is a concern as it is the second-largest economy globally, and reduced outlooks for Chinese GDP are being reported by major institutions.
- 💼 China's high levels of local government debt and shadow banking pose a risk of contagion, with real estate and shadow bank crises being the main focus.
- 📉 A selloff in China could lead to an emerging market selloff, but India may experience a heavier selloff due to the significant amount of money investors have made there.
- 🌍 The opaque nature of China's government and lack of data make it challenging to fully understand the depth of the country's economic issues.
### Summary
Under the rivalry between the US and China, many middle and small powers are making their own mark on the international order by reshaping the world economy, affecting the global balance of power, and increasing their economic weight, military potential, and diplomatic stature. These changes have been caused by unhappiness with globalization, the risks of overreliance on rivals for vital supplies, and the rise of China.
### Facts
- The unhappiness with globalization in the West, especially in America, has caused economic anxiety, social discontent, and political backlash.
- Covid-19 exposed the risks of overreliance on another country, especially a rival, for vital supplies.
- Russia's invasion of Ukraine revealed the EU's dependence on Moscow for energy.
- The rise of China has rattled the US and other countries, leading to the search for a new geo-economics.
- US allies in the Indo-Pacific are strengthening their defenses through military and technological cooperation with Washington.
- Geo-economics and geopolitics have merged, with the US leading in redefining globalization that does not harm national security, technological supremacy, and economic leadership.
- India is at the crossroads of new geo-economics and geopolitics, being America's natural geopolitical partner and an attractive partner in geo-economics.
- Middle powers like India are benefiting by aligning themselves with the US and forming independent groupings at the global or regional levels.
- Many players are multi-aligning and multi-networking through mini forums, ad hoc groupings, and shifting coalitions, making the international order very fluid.
Asian stocks, particularly Chinese markets, may find some relief after Wall Street's resilience in the face of rising bond yields, though economic data from China remains underwhelming and foreign investors continue to sell Chinese stocks.
China's economic challenges, including deflationary pressures and a slowdown in various sectors such as real estate, are likely to have a global impact and may continue to depress inflation in both China and other markets, with discounting expected to increase in the coming quarters.
China has a complex network of trade partnerships with over 200 countries, regions, and territories, and it has a trade surplus with the majority of them, including the US and India, while having deficits with major Asian economies like Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea. These trade relationships are influenced by historical, geopolitical, and strategic factors.
The emergence of the chip war in the semiconductor industry between the United States and China is causing disruptions to the global supply chain and creating uncertainties and price fluctuations in various industries reliant on chips. This development highlights the prioritization of competition over cooperation, with the raw materials for chip production becoming a tool to pursue geopolitical interests.
Asian markets will be influenced by economic indicators, policy steps, and diplomatic signals from China, as well as reacting to the Jackson Hole speeches, purchasing managers index reports, GDP data, and inflation figures throughout the week, with investors desperate for signs of economic improvement as China's industrial profits continue to slump and authorities take measures to stimulate the capital market.
Global investors are skeptical of China's ability to stabilize its financial markets, with many predicting that economic pressures will cause the offshore exchange rate of the yuan to reach record lows.
China's economy is facing multiple challenges, including tech and economic sanctions from the US, structural problems, and a decline in exports, hindering its goal of becoming a top global exporter and tech power, which could have long-lasting effects on its status in international relations and the global economy.
China's economic slowdown is causing alarm worldwide, with countries experiencing a slump in trade, falling commodity prices, and a decrease in Chinese demand for goods and services, while global investors are pulling billions of dollars from China's stock markets and cutting their targets for Chinese equities.
India's adversarial relationship with China and its moves to block imports and investment from China could complicate its involvement in BRICS, as China seeks to expand the group and use it as a platform to challenge Western dominance.
India is positioning itself as an alternative to China in the global supply chain, aiming to become a major manufacturing hub and increase its role in the production of goods, as the world seeks solutions to supply chain disruptions caused by health crises and geopolitical events.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's exchange with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the BRICS summit in South Africa suggests a potential thawing of the financial relationship between the two countries, with India showing interest in a larger Chinese presence in its businesses and a softening of its screening policy for investments.
China has defended its business practices and claimed that most U.S. firms want to stay and that Beijing is working to ease market access for foreign companies, in response to concerns from American businesses and global investors about the difficulties and risks of doing business in China.
Western policymakers are increasingly adopting industrial policies, such as "friendshoring" and "nearshoring," to move supply chains away from geopolitical rivals and towards friendly countries, aiming to strengthen trade security but potentially sacrificing efficiency in production; however, the costs of friendshoring could be high, damaging GDP and global expenditure.
UBS reports higher than expected profits, job creation in the US slows, and markets rally on weaker economic data and hope for a pause in interest rate hikes. China's factory activity shrinks but at a slower pace, while retail sales increase. There are opportunities for investors in other Asian markets.
The article discusses the potential for the West to use China's economic slowdown to gain an advantage in the electric car race, highlighting the need for a different approach to counter China's advantage. The author suggests welcoming Chinese investment and immigration of skilled Chinese scientists to strengthen the American EV industry and potentially weaken China.
Falling prices in China, driven by a weakened economy, could benefit countries with elevated inflation such as the U.S., India, Germany, and the Netherlands.
Despite efforts by the U.S. and other countries to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains, Chinese companies have successfully expanded their presence in key markets such as cutting-edge materials and electric vehicles, making it difficult for countries to ensure their economic security.
Fears about the health of the global economy have intensified as service sector activity in China, the eurozone, and the UK shows signs of weakness, leading to a drop in share prices in Asia and a decline in the pound against the US dollar.
China's appeal to multinational corporations remains strong due to its robust domestic market and commitment to opening up its economy, leading to a shift in the quality of foreign investment inflow into the country, particularly in sectors such as trade in services and high-end manufacturing.
China's economic challenges, including debt, unfavorable demographics, and a stagnating growth rate, have implications for global trade and the ambitions of President Xi Jinping, potentially leading to unforeseen consequences and strategic shifts.
Despite the risks and challenges of doing business in China, many Western companies still see it as a long-term bet due to its economic potential, but they are increasingly cautious and aware of the hazards they face.
As China's economy falters, traders in the emerging-market ETF industry are shifting their cash towards actively managed strategies that focus on brighter spots in the developing world, such as India and Latin America, while pulling money out of passive, China-heavy strategies.
India's stock market has seen a rally as strong macroeconomic fundamentals and China's economic slowdown keep foreign investors invested in Indian stocks, while a surge in retail investor interest continues to drive the market.
Asian markets are expected to be on the defensive due to sagging stocks and rising oil prices, as investors await U.S. inflation figures that will impact the Fed's rate decision; China's real estate sector is seen as the most likely source of a global systemic credit event.
U.S. and European firms are shifting investment away from China to other developing markets, with India receiving the majority of redirected foreign capital, due to concerns over China's business environment, economic recovery, and politics. However, diversification is unlikely to result in a rapid decline in exposure to China as the markets foreign firms are investing in are still heavily reliant on trade and investment with China.
Emerging markets, particularly China, are facing challenges such as weak economic activity, real estate debt issues, regulatory environment, and market concentration, while the U.S. market is performing well; however, emerging markets outside of China, like India, are showing promise due to supply chain diversification, infrastructure investment opportunities, and a pro-business government. Other attractive markets include Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia.
China's macroeconomic challenges, including deflationary pressures, yuan depreciation, and a struggling property sector, could have broader implications beyond its borders, impacting global metal exporters, trade deals, and global inflation; however, investing in China's stocks may offer compelling valuations despite the current downturn.
With the right reforms, India has the potential to become the next engine of global growth, benefiting from major economic re-alignments caused by China's slowdown and the US diversifying its supply chains. Major corporations are already investing in India, recognizing its potential. However, India needs to overcome challenges such as high tariffs, infrastructure improvements, and regional cooperation to fully realize its manufacturing potential and attract foreign investment.
A retreat of funds from Chinese stocks and bonds is diminishing China's global market influence and accelerating its decoupling from the rest of the world, due to economic concerns, tensions with the West, and a property market crisis.
The outlook of U.S. companies on China's markets in the next five years has hit a record low due to factors such as political tensions, tariffs, slow Covid recovery, and issues in the real estate market; however, complete decoupling between the two economies is unlikely.
Major U.S. companies are increasingly seeking manufacturing alternatives in countries like India to diversify their supply chains and reduce dependence on China due to the pandemic and escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing.
Asia is at the epicenter of economic and political disruptions, which may trigger a new era where Asia plays a leading role in shaping the global economy. The region's position as a trade crossroads and a technology hub gives it the opportunity to influence and shape the world order, technology platforms, demographic forces, resource and energy systems, and capitalization. However, Asia will face challenges in retaining its commercially pragmatic trade model, transitioning from technology manufacturing to technology creation, dealing with the aging population, managing energy demands while reducing carbon emissions, and mobilizing capital to power growth and improve financial resilience. To navigate this new era, Asia will need to focus on areas such as trade tensions, technology innovation, productivity growth, renewable energy development, and efficient financial systems.
China is willing to strengthen bilateral relations with India and implement the consensus reached by Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping, according to the Consul General of China in Kolkata, Zha Liyou, amid controversy over China's refusal to grant visas to three players from Arunachal Pradesh for the Asian Games.
Global markets face pressure as U.S. bond yields surge and the dollar strengthens; Hollywood screenwriters reach a tentative deal to end strike; global shares decline, dollar rises ahead of crucial U.S. inflation data; Vietnam aims to challenge China's rare earths dominance; Canadian economy headed for a rough patch; Trudeau expects Canadian interest rates to decrease by mid-2024.
Asian markets may be bolstered by Wall Street's performance, but concerns regarding the surging dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and troubles in the Chinese property sector may dampen investor enthusiasm.
China's President Xi Jinping emphasizes the need for reform and opening up the economy as foreign investors consider leaving, calling for a greater opening up of free-trade zones and a focus on playing by international trade rules. Despite these efforts, China's foreign direct investment has fallen and US businesses remain skeptical due to regulatory uncertainties and geopolitical risks.
China's economic slowdown, driven by a real estate crisis and prolonged Covid-19 measures, is raising doubts about its status as the largest economy in the world by 2030, while India is emerging as a promising economic powerhouse and attracting significant investments.
India's inclusion in JPMorgan's emerging market bond index signals major changes in the global capital markets, boosting capital inflows by $20-25 billion and improving liquidity for Indian assets and the rupee, ultimately attracting more investment. India's rise in the global economy will have significant consequences, positioning it as a nonaligned player and surpassing China in certain measures, while ongoing disputes with Pakistan and China continue to shape its geopolitical landscape.
Asia's competitive advantage has shifted from cheap labor to industrial services, including logistics, waste management, and data centers, according to a report by KKR's heads of global and Asia macro, who believe that the demand for infrastructure and logistics in countries like India, China, Japan, and others will continue to accelerate. Japan, in particular, is experiencing a capex cycle and corporate reform that is boosting shareholder returns, making it an attractive investment opportunity. Meanwhile, India is witnessing significant growth in infrastructure investment and exports, leading to increased productivity and economic growth. China's economy is undergoing a transition, with a growing digital economy and emphasis on decarbonization.
India's economy needs to grow at a rate of 8% per year and focus on investment in traditional sectors in order to surpass China as the largest contributor to the global economy, according to Barclays.
India's recent economic gains are unlikely to surpass China as the world economy's main growth engine, according to HSBC Holdings Plc, as India currently has too few economic drivers and China's importance cannot be easily replaced; however, HSBC does expect India to make significant contributions to global demand for commodities, consumption, and capital goods.
Asian markets are expected to open cautiously due to Wall Street's decline, oil's surge, escalating violence in the Middle East, and upcoming Chinese economic data, including third-quarter GDP figures which will determine if Beijing's 2023 growth goal will be met.
Asian markets are expected to open higher as investors focus on U.S. economic and corporate factors, despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
India has surpassed China as the world's most populous nation and the fastest-growing large economy, attracting global investors who are shifting their focus from China to India due to higher expected returns, driven by India's consumer boom and young workforce.
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