Asian stocks, particularly Chinese markets, may find some relief after Wall Street's resilience in the face of rising bond yields, though economic data from China remains underwhelming and foreign investors continue to sell Chinese stocks.
Summary: U.S. markets end mixed with Nasdaq up over 1% due to the surge in technology stocks, Asian markets show positive gains with Japan's Nikkei 225 rising 1.05%, and European markets are higher as the tech sector gains ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole gathering, while crude oil prices decrease slightly.
Asian markets are expected to follow the global trend of weakness in stocks, a buoyant dollar, elevated bond yields, and souring investor sentiment, with no major catalysts to change the current market condition.
China's economic slowdown, marked by falling consumer prices, a deepening real estate crisis, and a slump in exports, has alarmed international leaders and investors, causing Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index to fall into a bear market and prompting major investment banks to downgrade their growth forecasts for China below 5%.
China's economic slowdown is causing alarm across the world, as it is expected to have a negative impact on global economic growth, leading to reduced imports and trade, falling commodity prices, a deflationary effect on global goods prices, and a decline in tourism and luxury spending.
Asian markets will be influenced by economic indicators, policy steps, and diplomatic signals from China, as well as reacting to the Jackson Hole speeches, purchasing managers index reports, GDP data, and inflation figures throughout the week, with investors desperate for signs of economic improvement as China's industrial profits continue to slump and authorities take measures to stimulate the capital market.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that inflation and economic growth remain too high, indicating that interest rates may continue to rise and remain restrictive for longer. However, markets rebounded, with US stocks rallying and Asian markets starting the week on a high note. The Hong Kong stock market saw contrasting performances, with China Evergrande Group plunging while Xpeng soared. US Trade Representative Katherine Tai highlighted China's dominance in rare earth metals, making US supply chains vulnerable. Investors will be watching for the Personal Consumption Expenditure report and the August jobs report to gauge the Fed's future rate decisions. Powell's ambiguous remarks left room for interpretation, with markets focusing on the positive outlook for economic growth rather than the cautionary tone on interest rates.
Asian equities rise as weak U.S. labor data suggests the Federal Reserve is done with interest rate hikes, while Chinese stocks gain for a third consecutive day.
The US dollar experienced a major technical reversal due to a weaker JOLTs report, leading to a drop in US interest rates, while market positioning played a role in the price action; the focus now shifts to personal consumption figures and US jobs data, with the euro and sterling firm but most other G10 currencies softer, and emerging market currencies mixed. In Asia, most large bourses advanced, but Europe's Stoxx 600 fell after rallying in previous sessions, while US index futures traded softer; European bonds are selling up, gold is consolidating, and oil prices are firm. Australia's CPI slowed more than expected, China is expected to release the August PMI, and Japan reports July retail sales. The US dollar has seen no follow-through selling against the yen, yuan, or Australian dollar, while the euro and sterling staged impressive price action. The JOLTS report saw the dollar and US rates reverse lower, and today the US reports advanced merchandise trade figures for July, with the Canadian dollar as the worst performing G10 currency yesterday.
US companies are becoming increasingly hesitant to invest in China due to concerns over new anti-spying laws, competition from state-funded firms, and the country's economic challenges such as deflation and a property crisis.
Asia-Pacific markets rise as investors anticipate China's August factory activity data, with the country's manufacturing sector expected to contract for the fifth consecutive month, while US stocks gain due to positive economic data and revised GDP growth figures.
European markets are expected to open higher following UBS's strong quarterly results and positive economic data, while China's factory activity contracted and U.S. job growth slowed in August.
Asian stock markets mostly lower as Japanese factory activity and Chinese service industry growth weaken, while Wall Street's benchmark S&P 500 rises on hopes that economic data will convince the Federal Reserve that inflation is under control.
Disappointing economic data in Asia-Pacific markets, overinvestment in China, and Chinese electric vehicle companies expanding in Europe are among the key factors impacting global markets, while the price of bitcoin remains volatile with conflicting predictions about its future.
Asia stocks fall as weak economic data in China and Europe raise concerns over global growth, while the dollar strengthens as investors assess the outlook for U.S. interest rates.
Stock indices finished today’s trading session in the red, with the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all falling. The technology sector was the session's laggard, while the utilities sector was the leader. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield increased, and the Atlanta Federal Reserve's latest GDPNow reading estimates that the economy will expand by about 5.6% in the third quarter. The Federal Reserve released its Beige Book report, noting a tourism boom but slower spending in other areas. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index came in higher than expected, and mortgage applications fell to their lowest level since 1996. The U.S. trade deficit widened less than expected in July. U.S. stock futures inched lower, and European indices trended lower. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed.
China's economic growth has slowed but has not collapsed, and while there are concerns about financial risks and a potential property crisis, there are also bright spots such as the growth of the new energy and technology sectors that could boost the economy.
China's property shares are declining and tech shares are underperforming, leading to a slide in the Asian market, while the European market waits for monetary policy decisions from the ECB and the Bank of England.
India's stock market has seen a rally as strong macroeconomic fundamentals and China's economic slowdown keep foreign investors invested in Indian stocks, while a surge in retail investor interest continues to drive the market.
China's economic problems are more likely to impact its neighboring countries and Europe than the United States, according to US deputy treasury secretary Wally Adeyemo, who noted China's short-term capacity to handle its economy but stressed the need for addressing long-term structural economic challenges.
Asian markets are expected to be on the defensive due to sagging stocks and rising oil prices, as investors await U.S. inflation figures that will impact the Fed's rate decision; China's real estate sector is seen as the most likely source of a global systemic credit event.
Big Japanese manufacturers and the services sector in Japan are experiencing a decline in confidence, with concerns of a slowdown in China's economy affecting global and domestic growth, according to a Reuters poll. The weak sentiment in the business sector raises doubts about the ability of exports to drive economic recovery amid weak domestic demand. Many companies cited high input costs and weak demand as contributing factors, along with geopolitical risks and tensions between the US and China.
Equities edge down as inflation increases more than expected, mortgage applications reach lowest level since 1996, Apple's iPhone updates disappoint investors, UBS initiates coverage on Ford with a buy rating, China denies ban on government workers using foreign-branded devices, JPMorgan downgrades Oracle, antitrust lawsuits against Google begin, and Arm Holdings' IPO is expected to be the largest listing of the year.
U.S. and European firms are shifting investment away from China to other developing markets, with India receiving the majority of redirected foreign capital, due to concerns over China's business environment, economic recovery, and politics. However, diversification is unlikely to result in a rapid decline in exposure to China as the markets foreign firms are investing in are still heavily reliant on trade and investment with China.
Emerging markets, particularly China, are facing challenges such as weak economic activity, real estate debt issues, regulatory environment, and market concentration, while the U.S. market is performing well; however, emerging markets outside of China, like India, are showing promise due to supply chain diversification, infrastructure investment opportunities, and a pro-business government. Other attractive markets include Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia.
Asian markets are expected to finish the week strong due to positive movements in the U.S. and Europe, although the release of economic data from China may dampen the mood, as it includes indicators such as house prices, fixed asset investment, and unemployment. The Chinese government is aiming to support the economy, but doubts remain about reaching the 5% GDP growth target and trade relations with the West continue to deteriorate. However, if investors continue with the bullish momentum from Thursday, these concerns may be temporarily set aside.
Asia-Pacific markets rallied after China's August economic data exceeded expectations, with retail sales and industrial production showing stronger growth, although fixed asset investment fell slightly below forecast; meanwhile, the US stock market also ended higher as producer prices increased more than expected.
China's retail sales and industrial production exceeded expectations in August, with retail sales growing by 4.6% and industrial production growing by 4.5%, but fixed asset investment lagging behind at 3.2%, indicating potential instability in the external environment.
China's factory output and retail sales grew at a faster pace in August, but declining investment in the property sector poses a threat to the country's economic recovery.
China's positive retail sales and factory production data, coupled with expectations of a peak in interest rates at major central banks, are likely to boost equity markets at the European open.
Chinese economic data showing strength in consumer spending and manufacturing activity boosted Asian markets, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rising 0.8% and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 surging 1.1%, despite concerns about a slowdown in China's economy.
China's struggling economy, including its deflation and property crisis, will have a significant impact on the US due to its high foreign investment exposure in China and the dependence of key exporting countries like Chile, Australia, and Peru on the Chinese market.
Summary: U.S. stocks slumped amid mixed sentiment about the economy, with only the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising for the week, while Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell, and China's venture capital investment dropped by 31.4% compared to 2022 due to its sluggish economy and geopolitical tensions discouraging foreign investors.
Pessimism among U.S. businesses operating in China is on the rise, with a record low percentage of firms optimistic about their five-year outlook, according to a survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, driven by concerns over geopolitics and a slowing economy.
China is expected to maintain its benchmark lending rates as oil prices rise and market sentiment is affected; meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, Japan's trade data, and the United Nations General Assembly will also influence Asian markets.
The OECD forecasts that a stronger U.S. economy will help offset the global slowdown this year, but a weakening Chinese economy will have a bigger impact next year.
Asia-Pacific markets are expected to continue declining as investors wait for China's loan prime rates and the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate decision, while oil prices rise due to supply concerns and all 11 sectors in the S&P 500 trade down.
The outlook of U.S. companies on China's markets in the next five years has hit a record low due to factors such as political tensions, tariffs, slow Covid recovery, and issues in the real estate market; however, complete decoupling between the two economies is unlikely.
UBS Investment Bank suggests that the stock slump in China is almost over and investors should be more optimistic about the market outlook, as economic fundamentals have improved and technical signals indicate a potential market rebound.
U.S. companies are losing confidence in China and some are limiting their investments due to tensions between the two countries and China's economic slowdown.
Chinese stocks defy regional declines as tech stocks rise, while the 10-year Treasury yield slightly decreases from a 16-year high; US futures tick higher following a 1.6% slide in the S&P 500; bond yields rise in Australia and New Zealand after positive US labor market data; and India's sovereign debt is set to be included in JPMorgan's benchmark emerging-markets index.
