### Summary
The Chinese economy has slipped into deflationary mode, with retail sales, industrial production, and exports all missing forecasts. Shrinking domestic demand and a debt-fueled housing crisis are the main causes behind this slowdown.
### Facts
- đ Retail sales in July grew by 2.5% year-on-year, compared to 3.1% in June.
- đ Value-added industrial output expanded by 3.7% y-o-y, slowing from 4.4% growth in June.
- đ China's exports fell by 14.5% in July compared to the previous year, and imports dropped 12.4%.
- đź Overall unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in July, with youth unemployment at a record 21.3% in June.
- đ Consumer Price Index-based inflation dropped to (-)0.3%, indicating a deflationary situation.
- đ˘ China's debt is estimated at 282% of GDP, higher than that of the US.
### Causes of the slowdown
- The debt-fueled housing sector collapse, which contributes to 30% of China's GDP.
- Stringent zero-Covid strategy and lockdown measures that stifled the domestic economy and disrupted global supply chains.
- Geopolitical tensions and crackdowns on the tech sector, resulting in revenue losses and job cuts.
### Reaction of global markets
- The S&P 500 fell 1.2% following the grim Chinese data.
- US Treasury Secretary warns China's slowing economy is a risk factor for the US economy.
- Japanese stocks and the Indian Nifty were also impacted.
- China's central bank cut its benchmark lending rate, but investors were hoping for more significant stimulus measures.
### Global market concerns
- China's struggle to achieve the 5% growth target may impact global demand.
- China is the world's largest manufacturing economy and consumer of key commodities.
- A slowdown in China could affect global growth, with the IMF's forecast of 35% growth contribution by China seeming unlikely.
### Impact on India
- India's aim to compete with China in the global supply chain could benefit if Chinese exports decline.
- However, if China cuts back on commodity production due to slowing domestic demand, it may push commodity prices higher.
### Summary
The global economy is showing signs of decoupling, with the US economy remaining strong and China's economy disappointing at the margin. The recent data suggests that the US economy is resilient, with consumption and other indicators pointing in a positive direction. However, there are concerns about the bear steepening of the US curve and the repricing of the long end of the curve. In contrast, China's economy continues to struggle, with weak data and monetary policy easing. Japan has surprised with positive data, but there are questions about whether the current inflation shift will lead to tighter monetary policy. Overall, there are concerns about a potential global economic recession and its impact on various economies.
### Facts
- đ° Despite the decoupling of the US and China economies, concerns remain about the negative impact of a China slowdown on global growth.
- đš Recent data show that the US economy, particularly consumption, remains resilient.
- đ The bear steepening of the US curve and the repricing of the long end of the curve are causing concerns.
- đ¨đł In China, weak data on consumption and investment and declining house prices continue to affect the economy. The PBoC has eased monetary policy.
- đŻđľ Japan's 2Q data surprised with strong export growth, but there are concerns about the impact of a potential inflation shift on global yields.
- đ The global economy is at risk of recession, with concerns about the impact on emerging market economies and the US economy.
Chinese authorities have introduced new measures to boost investor confidence in the stock market by reducing trading costs, relaxing rules on share buybacks, and considering extended trading hours and a cut in stamp duty, following recent declines in both the stock and bond markets. These declines have been influenced by China's deteriorating economic outlook, including deflation, weak consumer spending on manufactured goods, rising youth unemployment, and concerns over the property market.
China is making efforts to restore confidence among businesses and consumers after crackdowns on the private sector and harsh Covid restrictions have negatively impacted its economy.
Japan's exports fell in July for the first time in nearly 2-1/2 years, driven by weak demand for light oil and chip-making equipment and raising concerns about a global recession as the demand in key markets such as China weakens.
China's weak economy, including an unstable property market and weak consumer demand, is posing risks to global markets and economies like the US, according to experts.
Thailand's tourism and exports, particularly in the chemical and plastic sectors, are expected to decline due to the economic slowdown in China caused by the real estate crisis, leading to a significant decrease in the number of Chinese tourists visiting Thailand and affecting the country's overall economy.
China's economic slowdown is worrisome for global markets as it is one of the largest buyers of commodities.
China's economy is facing a series of crises, including a real estate and debt crisis, record joblessness, and a growing lack of confidence, leading to decreased spending and investment.
China's economic model, driven by industrialization and exports, is showing weaknesses with an imbalanced economy, low demand, slumping trade, and a struggling property sector, highlighting the need for structural reforms to boost domestic consumption and confidence.
China's leading e-commerce company, JD.com, has experienced a significant decline in its stock price due to investor concerns about the Chinese economic recovery and the property market debt crisis, despite positive second-quarter earnings and growth prospects.
US imports of consumer goods, particularly home electronics, experienced a significant decline in the second quarter of 2023, following the end of the Covid-induced work-from-home electronics boom, while US manufacturing also slowed, indicating challenges in stimulating demand; however, claims that this decline in imports is solely due to re-shoring are false, as imports from US allies such as Mexico, Vietnam, and India have increased in tandem with China's declining exports to the US.
Investors are becoming increasingly concerned about the state of China's economy as informal gauges, such as PMI surveys and soft surveys, indicate a deep-seated confidence problem and a potential miss of the country's 5% growth target this year, leading to a retreat from global assets exposed to the slowdown.
China's economy is facing multiple challenges, including tech and economic sanctions from the US, structural problems, and a decline in exports, hindering its goal of becoming a top global exporter and tech power, which could have long-lasting effects on its status in international relations and the global economy.
China's economic slowdown is causing alarm worldwide, with countries experiencing a slump in trade, falling commodity prices, and a decrease in Chinese demand for goods and services, while global investors are pulling billions of dollars from China's stock markets and cutting their targets for Chinese equities.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda expressed concern over China's weak economic activity, particularly in the property sector, which could impact Japan's economic outlook, while also highlighting the potential risks of geopolitical tensions and trade wars.
China's economic troubles, including a real estate crisis, an aging population, and rising debt, resemble Japan's long-standing issues, leading some experts to predict a potential "lost decade" for China similar to Japan's economic stagnation in the 1990s, while Japan is showing signs of climbing out of its deflationary nightmare.
Japan's factory output fell more than expected in July, indicating a challenging start to the second half of the year for manufacturers amid concerns about China's growth and the global economy. Output declined 2.0% in July from the previous month, driven by decreased domestic and overseas orders, particularly in the electronic parts and production machinery sectors. However, car production rose 0.6% due to improved supply chain conditions.
UBS reports higher than expected profits, job creation in the US slows, and markets rally on weaker economic data and hope for a pause in interest rate hikes. China's factory activity shrinks but at a slower pace, while retail sales increase. There are opportunities for investors in other Asian markets.
If China were to slip into a deflationary spiral like Japan in the 1990s, it could lead to a decrease in consumer spending, a weakened economy, and negative consequences for the rest of the world, including a slowdown in imports for the US and adverse effects on developing economies reliant on Chinese exports and investment.
The prospect of a prolonged economic slump in China poses a serious threat to global growth, potentially changing fundamental aspects of the global economy, affecting debt markets and supply chains, and impacting emerging markets and the United States.
Fears about the health of the global economy have intensified as service sector activity in China, the eurozone, and the UK shows signs of weakness, leading to a drop in share prices in Asia and a decline in the pound against the US dollar.
China's imports and exports experienced a monthly decline in August, with exports falling by 8.8% and imports falling by 7.3%, indicating ongoing challenges despite some slight improvement.
China's appeal to multinational corporations remains strong due to its robust domestic market and commitment to opening up its economy, leading to a shift in the quality of foreign investment inflow into the country, particularly in sectors such as trade in services and high-end manufacturing.
China's real estate market downturn, characterized by falling property prices and potential defaults by developers, poses significant risks to Chinese banks, global markets, and Asian economies closely linked to China through trade and investment. The situation has prompted cautiousness among international investors and led to negative impacts on Japan's exports.
The decline in Chinese imports into the U.S. is impacting steel prices and raising concerns about sourcing steel and other metals.
China's economy is facing potential decline due to high debt levels, government interference, and an aging population, with warnings of a full-blown financial crisis echoing the 2008 US recession. Failure to liberalize the economy could have long-term consequences, as foreign investments are restricted and the lack of capital inflow and outflow could harm businesses.
China's factory output and retail sales grew at a faster pace in August, but declining investment in the property sector poses a threat to the country's economic recovery.
Concerns over demand in the global chip sector, as well as strikes at major automaker factories, are weighing on sentiment in Asian markets, while the Bank of Japan's policy meeting and central bank decisions in the US and UK will be closely watched this week.
Pessimism among U.S. businesses operating in China is on the rise, with a record low percentage of firms optimistic about their five-year outlook, according to a survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, driven by concerns over geopolitics and a slowing economy.
China's economic model is in decline and will have a significant impact on global markets, according to veteran investor David Roche, who predicts long-term struggles for manufacturing-based economies and warns of potential social unrest and geopolitical problems.
The outlook of U.S. companies on China's markets in the next five years has hit a record low due to factors such as political tensions, tariffs, slow Covid recovery, and issues in the real estate market; however, complete decoupling between the two economies is unlikely.
Japan's exports to China declined for the ninth consecutive month in August, dropping 11%, due to weak demand and the suspension of seafood imports following the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant incident.
U.S. companies are losing confidence in China and some are limiting their investments due to tensions between the two countries and China's economic slowdown.
Chinese officials express confidence in the country's economic outlook, despite projections of weakness by institutions such as the Asian Development Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, citing improved factory output and tourism figures as signs of recovery.
US companies' optimism about their business prospects in China is at a record low, with US-China tensions and negative effects on businesses being the biggest challenges, according to a survey by the US-China Business Council. Despite the low optimism, China remains a top-five priority market for 74% of companies surveyed.
More than 60% of Japanese business leaders expect increased risks of operating in China due to economic and geopolitical concerns, while the majority also plan to boost their company's return on equity to at least 10%.
Japan's business sentiment improved in the third quarter, with big manufacturers' index rising to 9 and big non-manufacturers' index increasing to 27, indicating a strong economic revival and potential conditions for the Bank of Japan to phase out stimulus measures.
The weak yen has improved business sentiment at Japanese companies, with the overall mood boosted by a more favorable supply chain and an influx of tourists from abroad, according to the Bank of Japan's latest quarterly Tankan survey.
China is facing a "grinding" economic slowdown with a narrow path for policymakers to prevent further decline, as its property sector and growth rate enter into structural decline and stimulus measures can only partially offset the weakening consumption and investment. However, it is unlikely to experience a Japan-like stagnation but rather a "Sinification" scenario with 3%-4% GDP growth over the next few years.
Most Japanese companies expect a continued slowdown in China's economy until 2025, with many looking to shift production to other markets, according to a Reuters poll, despite recent signs of recovery in China's economic activity.
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