### Summary
The upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium is expected to deliver a hawkish but cautious message from the Fed chair, with a focus on the strong US economy, resilient US consumer, and persistent inflation.
### Facts
- ๐ Last year, the markets experienced a major selloff following the Fed chair's unexpectedly hawkish speech at Jackson Hole.
- ๐ช This year, the markets are pessimistic due to the strong US economic numbers, including a predicted 5.8% growth for Q3.
- ๐๏ธ The Fed chair will likely discuss the possibility of a November rate hike but may roil the markets if he mentions further rate hikes.
- ๐ The slowdown of China's economy is a concern as it is the second-largest economy globally, and reduced outlooks for Chinese GDP are being reported by major institutions.
- ๐ผ China's high levels of local government debt and shadow banking pose a risk of contagion, with real estate and shadow bank crises being the main focus.
- ๐ A selloff in China could lead to an emerging market selloff, but India may experience a heavier selloff due to the significant amount of money investors have made there.
- ๐ The opaque nature of China's government and lack of data make it challenging to fully understand the depth of the country's economic issues.
### Summary
Investors will be watching Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium for clues on the economic outlook and future interest rate hikes. China's property crisis and its impact on the economy, PMI data from the Eurozone and UK, and oil prices will also be key factors to watch.
### Facts
- ๐ Investors will be looking to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole for insight into the economic outlook and the future path of interest rates.
- ๐น Markets will be focused on Powell's speech and earnings from chip designer Nvidia to gauge the interest rate outlook and market sentiment.
- ๐จ๐ณ Expectations are rising for China to cut the loan prime rate amid concerns of a deepening crisis in the country's property sector.
- ๐ PMI data from the Eurozone and UK will offer insights into potential interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.
- โฝ๏ธ Oil prices declined last week due to concerns over global demand and the worsening property crisis in China.
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### Summary
The People's Bank of China is expected to cut interest rates in order to calm the nervousness and concern sweeping through the country's financial markets.
### Facts
- ๐ The People's Bank of China is expected to cut interest rates on Monday.
- ๐ The Chinese central bank may have to make a big move in order to soothe nervousness in the financial markets.
- ๐ฆ The Bank of Korea and Bank Indonesia are expected to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday.
- ๐ผ The Chinese central bank's decision and wider developments around China's markets and economy will dominate investors' thinking this week.
- ๐ฐ The U.S. Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole Symposium and the BRICS summit in South Africa will also be closely watched.
- ๐ Chinese economists are slashing their GDP growth forecasts due to deflation, slumping trade activity, and an imploding property sector.
- ๐ฃ The real estate crisis poses a threat to growth and raises questions about the strength of the shadow banking system.
- ๐ Chinese blue chip stocks are down 6% in the last two weeks, and financial conditions are tightest since December.
- ๐ Global markets are experiencing volatility, with a surging dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and stock markets experiencing vertigo.
- ๐ Key developments to watch on Monday include the China interest rate decision, Thailand GDP for Q2, and Hong Kong inflation for July.
### Summary
China is expected to cut lending benchmarks, including the mortgage reference rate, to revive credit demand and support the struggling property sector.
### Facts
- ๐ฆ China is predicted to lower lending benchmarks at the monthly fixing, including the loan prime rate (LPR).
- ๐ All participants in a survey of 35 market watchers anticipate cuts to both the one-year LPR and the five-year LPR.
- ๐ The majority of participants expect a 15-basis-point cut to the one-year LPR, while the remaining forecast a 10 bp reduction.
- ๐ Meanwhile, 94% of respondents predict a reduction of at least 15 bp to the five-year LPR, which serves as the mortgage reference rate.
- ๐ฐ Market expectations for further monetary easing are driven by declining credit lending and increasing deflationary pressure.
- ๐ The central bank has promised to adjust and optimize property policies to address the deepening crisis in the property market.
- ๐ฑ Analysts believe that the central bank may also implement reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and balance sheet expansion to manage risks in key sectors.
Source: [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/chinas-loan-benchmarks-face-big-cut-next-month-fixing-poll-2022-10-28/)
### Summary
Oil prices rose in Asian trade, unfazed by China's disappointing interest rate cut, as the prospect of tighter supplies supported the outlook.
### Facts
- ๐ฐ Oil prices rose in Asian trade, shrugging off China's interest rate cut.
- ๐ข๏ธ Concerns over slowing demand in China and rising US interest rates had driven steep losses in crude prices.
- ๐ China cut its one-year loan prime rate by 10 basis points to 3.45%, disappointing market forecasts for a larger cut.
- ๐ข Lack of changes in the mortgage rate raised concerns over a worsening real estate crisis in China.
- ๐ Deep production cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia are expected to limit crude supplies by nearly 70 million barrels over 45 days.
- ๐บ๐ธ Robust fuel consumption in the US, particularly during the summer season, pointed to tighter markets.
- ๐ Analysts expect oil prices to remain relatively higher for the rest of the year, despite the prospect of higher interest rates affecting US demand.
### Summary
The People's Bank of China is expected to cut interest rates, but may need to take a larger action to calm the uncertainty in the market. Other factors like the US Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium and the BRICS summit will also impact investor sentiment.
### Facts
- ๐ฐ The People's Bank of China is expected to cut interest rates to soothe market concerns.
- ๐ผ Bank of Korea and Bank Indonesia are expected to keep interest rates on hold this week.
- ๐ The US Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium and the BRICS summit will affect investor thinking.
- ๐ Chinese policymakers' conservative nature may result in more aggressive moves in the interest rate cut.
- ๐ The currency is already weak and vulnerable, posing a risk to further cuts.
- ๐ Economists are lowering Chinese GDP growth forecasts, doubting the country will achieve its 2023 goal.
- ๐๏ธ The real estate crisis and the scale of indebtedness raise questions about the stability of the shadow banking system.
- ๐ง Beijing is taking steps to boost confidence, but measures seem insufficient.
- ๐ Chinese blue chip stocks have decreased by 6% in the last two weeks.
- ๐ Global markets are facing a deteriorating backdrop, with the dollar surging, US Treasury yields rising, and stock markets experiencing instability.
- ๐๏ธ Key developments on Monday include China's interest rate decision, Thailand's Q2 GDP, and Hong Kong's July inflation.
### Summary
Asian stocks were mixed as traders awaited the Federal Reserve's summer conference to determine if more interest rate hikes are necessary to deal with inflation.
### Facts
- ๐ Shanghai and Hong Kong stocks retreated, while Tokyo and Seoul stocks advanced.
- ๐ The Hang Seng in Hong Kong lost 1.1%.
- ๐ The Nikkei 225 in Tokyo advanced 0.6%.
- ๐ The Kospi in Seoul gained 0.6%.
- ๐ The S&P 500 index ended the week lower by 0.1%.
- ๐ต Some investors are shifting money to bonds as higher interest rates make their payout bigger and less risky.
- ๐น Tech and other high-growth stocks are some of the biggest losers due to higher rates.
- ๐ Ross Stores jumped 5% after reporting stronger-than-expected results, while Estee Lauder fell 3.3% despite reporting stronger profit and revenue than expected.
- โฝ Benchmark U.S. crude gained 73 cents to $81.39 per barrel, while Brent crude reached $85.55 per barrel.
- ๐ฒ The dollar slightly edged up to 145.35 yen, while the euro rose to $1.0882.
(Source: AP News)
### Summary
China has only made a small trim to its benchmark lending rate, disappointing analysts and putting pressure on Chinese blue-chips and the yuan. However, Beijing seems unlikely to launch fiscal stimulus to boost the economy. Meanwhile, the United States has a large budget deficit, which may explain the strong GDP growth.
### Facts
- ๐ผ China cuts one-year benchmark lending rate by 10 basis points, surprising analysts who expected bigger cuts.
- ๐ผ Pressure on Chinese blue-chips and yuan continues despite attempts by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to support it.
- ๐ผ Western investors expect Beijing to provide fiscal stimulus, but there are no signs of compliance from authorities.
- ๐ผ China's securities regulator unveils measures to boost investor confidence, with several companies announcing plans to buy their own shares.
- ๐ผ PBOC announces coordination of financial support to resolve local government debt issues and encourages banks to lend more.
- ๐ผ Chinese shares stabilize after initial decline, Nikkei and Aussie recover.
- ๐ผ United States has a large budget deficit, running at an annual $1.6 trillion, potentially driving unexpected GDP growth.
- ๐ผ Fed Chair Jerome Powell faces a messaging challenge at the Jackson Hole meeting this week regarding strong GDP growth and inflation decline.
- ๐ผ Key developments that could influence markets on Monday include a joint press conference of Finance Ministers and German producer price data for July.
### Summary
- European stocks rebound after a drop last week, while bond yields rise ahead of the Fed's Jackson Hole event.
- China's smaller-than-expected rate cuts and weak economic data disappointed investors.
### Facts
- ๐ European stocks edge higher after last week's rout.
- ๐ China stocks hit a 9-month low as rate easing underwhelms.
- China's central bank trims its one-year lending rate by 10 basis points, while leaving its five-year rate unchanged.
- Expectation remains for further stimulus from China.
- Asian shares decline due to disappointment, with Chinese blue chips falling to a nine-month low.
- Energy companies outperform as oil prices rise.
- Oil prices edge higher after a seven-week winning streak.
- Bond market sell-off leads to higher government borrowing costs.
- U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, with the 30-year yield touching a fresh 12-year high.
- The U.S. Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole conference is the key event for the week.
- Markets anticipate that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will address rising yields and strong economic data.
- Polls indicate that a majority of analysts believe the Fed is done hiking rates.
- Traders bet on a just under 40% chance of a final Fed hike by November.
- U.S. dollar trades flat after five weeks of gains.
- Gold prices affected negatively by the rise of the dollar and yields.
- Prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) supported by a potential strike at Australian offshore facilities.
- Dutch payments processor Adyen's shares drop amid concerns over weak earnings.
- Earnings from Nvidia will be closely watched.
Note: The given content contains parts that do not match the provided date range.
China's stock market has experienced a bearish performance recently, with the benchmark stock index reaching a 9-month low, and there are concerns about the longer-term equilibrium interest rate highlighted by Fed Chair Powell's remarks at the upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
Asian stocks, particularly Chinese markets, may find some relief after Wall Street's resilience in the face of rising bond yields, though economic data from China remains underwhelming and foreign investors continue to sell Chinese stocks.
Asian market sentiment is expected to be cautious and nervous due to the strength of the U.S. dollar, rising bond yields, tightening financial conditions, and concerns over China's economy.
China's one-year loan prime rate is slashed by 10 basis points, while the five-year rate remains unchanged, leading to mixed performance in Asia-Pacific markets, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index slipping 1.8%, mainland Chinese markets in negative territory, and other markets on the rise; meanwhile, Thailand's economy expands by 1.8% in Q2, lower than expected.
Bond market investors will closely watch U.S. jobs data and European inflation numbers, while China's efforts to stabilize its markets and economy continue, and the impact of El Nino poses a threat to global food supplies.
China needs to fully utilize policy space to bolster economic growth and market expectations by making significant adjustments in fiscal and monetary policies, according to a senior economist and political adviser. The economist emphasizes the importance of sending strong signals to the market and considers options such as interest rate cuts, increased deficit-to-GDP ratio, and infrastructural improvements to address economic challenges caused by global demand stagnation and tightened US monetary measures.
Asian markets will be influenced by economic indicators, policy steps, and diplomatic signals from China, as well as reacting to the Jackson Hole speeches, purchasing managers index reports, GDP data, and inflation figures throughout the week, with investors desperate for signs of economic improvement as China's industrial profits continue to slump and authorities take measures to stimulate the capital market.
Global investors are skeptical of China's ability to stabilize its financial markets, with many predicting that economic pressures will cause the offshore exchange rate of the yuan to reach record lows.
Asian markets are expected to open strong, supported by a global equity upswing and lower bond yields, although caution remains due to the latest efforts by Beijing to support the Chinese stock market.
China's largest banks are preparing to cut interest rates on existing mortgages and deposits in an effort to stimulate consumer spending and support economic growth; the move is part of the government's targeted measures to alleviate pressure on lenders' profit margins and encourage investment in the stock market.
Asian equities rise as weak U.S. labor data suggests the Federal Reserve is done with interest rate hikes, while Chinese stocks gain for a third consecutive day.
UBS reports higher than expected profits, job creation in the US slows, and markets rally on weaker economic data and hope for a pause in interest rate hikes. China's factory activity shrinks but at a slower pace, while retail sales increase. There are opportunities for investors in other Asian markets.
Global interest rate hikes, challenges in China, a stronger dollar, and political instability in Africa have impacted emerging market assets, causing stock and currency declines and property market concerns in China, while Turkey's markets have seen a boost in response to interest rate hikes, and African debt markets have experienced a significant pullback.
Asian markets are weighed down by concerns over high U.S. bond yields, a strong dollar, China's economic struggles, and rising oil prices.
Asia stock markets are softer ahead of U.S inflation data, with investors looking for signals about the Federal Reserve's next moves on interest rates.
Asian markets are expected to be on the defensive due to sagging stocks and rising oil prices, as investors await U.S. inflation figures that will impact the Fed's rate decision; China's real estate sector is seen as the most likely source of a global systemic credit event.
China's central bank will take measures to boost demand, support price rebound, and create a favorable monetary and financial environment to enhance economic vitality, according to an unnamed senior central bank official.
Asian markets are expected to finish the week strong due to positive movements in the U.S. and Europe, although the release of economic data from China may dampen the mood, as it includes indicators such as house prices, fixed asset investment, and unemployment. The Chinese government is aiming to support the economy, but doubts remain about reaching the 5% GDP growth target and trade relations with the West continue to deteriorate. However, if investors continue with the bullish momentum from Thursday, these concerns may be temporarily set aside.
China's positive retail sales and factory production data, coupled with expectations of a peak in interest rates at major central banks, are likely to boost equity markets at the European open.
A retreat of funds from Chinese stocks and bonds is diminishing China's global market influence and accelerating its decoupling from the rest of the world, due to economic concerns, tensions with the West, and a property market crisis.
Asia-Pacific markets are expected to continue declining as investors wait for China's loan prime rates and the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate decision, while oil prices rise due to supply concerns and all 11 sectors in the S&P 500 trade down.
China maintains benchmark lending rates unchanged as signs of economic stabilization and a weakening yuan lessen the need for immediate monetary easing.
Asian markets will be influenced by three monetary policy decisions in Asia and the Bank of England's decision on interest rates, as investors react to the Federal Reserve's policy decision and revised forecasts.
Equity markets in Asia are expected to face selling pressure due to worsening risk sentiment and concerns about higher interest rates signaled by the Federal Reserve, leading to declines in U.S. stocks and a fall in futures for benchmarks in Australia and Japan.
Asian markets may be bolstered by Wall Street's performance, but concerns regarding the surging dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and troubles in the Chinese property sector may dampen investor enthusiasm.
Asian markets may be boosted by positive sentiment following a deal to prevent a U.S. government shutdown, but mixed Chinese data and a struggling economy may put a dampener on gains; central bank decisions and inflation data will also be watched closely this week.
Asian markets are expected to open higher following a rebound in risk sentiment driven by comments from Fed officials suggesting a possible pause in rate hikes, resulting in gold and oil prices rising, the dollar weakening, and Wall Street recovering from losses.
Asian markets are expected to start positively due to a slump in U.S. bond yields and comments from Federal Reserve officials signaling the end of interest rate hikes, despite concerns in China's property sector and other economic indicators.
Asian shares slide on stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer prices, increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping rates higher for longer.
China's weak economic recovery and the risks associated with its property crisis are likely to impact Asia's economic prospects, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), leading to a cloudier outlook for the region and potential spillover effects on commodity-exporting countries with close trade links to China. The IMF revised its growth estimate for Asia down to 4.2% for 2024, and emphasized the need for central banks in the region to exercise caution in cutting interest rates due to sticky core inflation and other global factors such as the Middle East conflict. Additionally, the IMF warned that Japan's normalization of monetary policy could have significant global implications.
Asian markets are expected to open cautiously due to Wall Street's decline, oil's surge, escalating violence in the Middle East, and upcoming Chinese economic data, including third-quarter GDP figures which will determine if Beijing's 2023 growth goal will be met.
Asian markets are expected to open cautiously due to Wall Street's decline, rising oil prices, escalating violence in the Middle East, and upcoming Chinese economic data, including third-quarter GDP figures.
Asian markets are expected to open cautiously due to Wall Street's decline, oil's surge, escalating violence in the Middle East, and upcoming Chinese economic data, including third-quarter GDP figures which will determine if Beijing's growth goal will be met.
Asian policymakers are using unconventional measures, such as bond sales, to protect their currencies from the impact of rising US interest rates and global tensions, which are causing outflows from the region's lower benchmark rates; while these measures don't replace the use of foreign-exchange reserves, they reduce the amount needed.
Asian financial markets are preparing for the release of Chinese GDP figures amid a backdrop of global economic, market, and geopolitical uncertainties, including the Middle East crisis and the potential default of China's largest private property developer, Country Garden.
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