### Summary
Growing concerns about global economic growth and uncertainties in monetary policy have led to turbulence in financial markets, with rising bond yields and a decline in equity markets. Key factors affecting growth include interest rates, bond yields, and access to funds, which may result in a credit crunch and a more risk-averse environment in capital markets. China's shift towards self-sufficiency, combined with a more prudent policy environment, slower population growth, and trade sanctions, will lead to slower and more erratic growth in the country. Although there are near-term concerns, the longer-term outlook for global growth remains positive.
### Facts
- Global economic growth is a concern, reflected in rising bond yields and a decline in equity markets.
- Policymakers, particularly in the US, are worried about overtightening monetary policy.
- Western economies, including the UK, have proven resilient despite expectations of a recession.
- Lower inflation will boost spending power, but growth will depend on where interest rates and bond yields settle.
- Businesses face challenges in raising funds due to a credit crunch, tough lending conditions, and a risk-averse capital market environment.
- The International Monetary Fund forecasts global growth to slow from 3.5% last year to 3% this year and next, with Asia being a major driver.
- Concerns about deflation in China exist, but low inflation is more likely.
- China's shift towards self-sufficiency in response to trade wars has coincided with a more prudent policy environment and the need to curb inflation and manage debt overhang.
- A shrinking population and structural changes in China will result in slower and more erratic growth.
- Private sector activity remains strong in Asia, and Japan's economy is experiencing an economic rebound.
- Western economies previously experienced a prolonged period of cheap money, which led to imbalances and misallocation of capital.
- Prudent monetary policy in some emerging economies provides more room to act in response to economic weakness.
- Concerns exist regarding rising policy rates in the US, UK, and euro area and the tightening of central banks' balance sheets.
- The definition of a risk-free asset is being questioned, as government bonds, previously considered safe, have witnessed negative total returns.
- There has been a rise in shadow banking and non-bank financial institutions, with collateral in the form of government bonds playing a crucial role.
Overall, the focus is shifting from inflation to growth, and future policy rates may need to settle at a high level. High levels of public and private debt globally limit policy maneuverability and expose individuals and firms to higher interest rates.
### Summary
The People's Bank of China is expected to cut interest rates, but may need to take a larger action to calm the uncertainty in the market. Other factors like the US Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium and the BRICS summit will also impact investor sentiment.
### Facts
- 💰 The People's Bank of China is expected to cut interest rates to soothe market concerns.
- 💼 Bank of Korea and Bank Indonesia are expected to keep interest rates on hold this week.
- 🌍 The US Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium and the BRICS summit will affect investor thinking.
- 📉 Chinese policymakers' conservative nature may result in more aggressive moves in the interest rate cut.
- 🔒 The currency is already weak and vulnerable, posing a risk to further cuts.
- 📉 Economists are lowering Chinese GDP growth forecasts, doubting the country will achieve its 2023 goal.
- 🏘️ The real estate crisis and the scale of indebtedness raise questions about the stability of the shadow banking system.
- 🔧 Beijing is taking steps to boost confidence, but measures seem insufficient.
- 📉 Chinese blue chip stocks have decreased by 6% in the last two weeks.
- 🌐 Global markets are facing a deteriorating backdrop, with the dollar surging, US Treasury yields rising, and stock markets experiencing instability.
- 🗓️ Key developments on Monday include China's interest rate decision, Thailand's Q2 GDP, and Hong Kong's July inflation.
Asian stocks were mixed as traders awaited the Federal Reserve's summer conference for indications on inflation control and interest rate hikes, with investors warned of potential surprises.
Asian stocks rise as traders await signals on interest rate plans from the Federal Reserve conference, with hopes that further rate hikes will be ruled out but concerns about inflation persisting.
Asian currencies slightly rose as U.S. yields increased, prompting Thailand's and China's central banks to stabilize their currencies, while the Philippines' central bank stated it may intervene to support its currency; additionally, traders are anticipating the U.S. Federal Reserve's symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Asian market sentiment is expected to be cautious and nervous due to the strength of the U.S. dollar, rising bond yields, tightening financial conditions, and concerns over China's economy.
Asian markets are expected to follow the global trend of weakness in stocks, a buoyant dollar, elevated bond yields, and souring investor sentiment, with no major catalysts to change the current market condition.
Asia-Pacific markets rise ahead of central bank rate decisions from South Korea and Indonesia, while South Korea's producer price index grows at a slower pace for the 13th consecutive month.
China needs to fully utilize policy space to bolster economic growth and market expectations by making significant adjustments in fiscal and monetary policies, according to a senior economist and political adviser. The economist emphasizes the importance of sending strong signals to the market and considers options such as interest rate cuts, increased deficit-to-GDP ratio, and infrastructural improvements to address economic challenges caused by global demand stagnation and tightened US monetary measures.
Asian markets will be influenced by economic indicators, policy steps, and diplomatic signals from China, as well as reacting to the Jackson Hole speeches, purchasing managers index reports, GDP data, and inflation figures throughout the week, with investors desperate for signs of economic improvement as China's industrial profits continue to slump and authorities take measures to stimulate the capital market.
European shares traded higher as traders considered the possibility of higher interest rates from the U.S. Federal Reserve and awaited upcoming economic data, while U.S. stocks opened higher and Asian stocks rallied due to a stock market policy change in China.
The Bank of Japan surprised financial markets by announcing "greater flexibility" in its monetary policy, specifically loosening its yield curve control, which has led to speculation about a potential tightening of monetary policy and the end of the policy measure.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep its key cash rate unchanged as inflation eases, while Asian markets show signs of revival due to China's efforts to support its property sector and wider economy.
Asia stock markets are softer ahead of U.S inflation data, with investors looking for signals about the Federal Reserve's next moves on interest rates.
Stock prices in Asia were mostly higher as investors awaited updates on U.S. inflation and China's economic data, while concerns about rising oil prices and possible higher interest rates weighed on markets.
Asian markets are expected to be on the defensive due to sagging stocks and rising oil prices, as investors await U.S. inflation figures that will impact the Fed's rate decision; China's real estate sector is seen as the most likely source of a global systemic credit event.
Asia-Pacific markets slipped as investors await central bank decisions, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's announcement on Thursday and the Bank of Japan's meeting on Friday, while Australia's central bank will release its policy meeting minutes on Tuesday and China's central bank is set to release loan prime rate decisions on Friday.
China is expected to maintain its benchmark lending rates as oil prices rise and market sentiment is affected; meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, Japan's trade data, and the United Nations General Assembly will also influence Asian markets.
Equity markets in Asia are expected to face selling pressure due to worsening risk sentiment and concerns about higher interest rates signaled by the Federal Reserve, leading to declines in U.S. stocks and a fall in futures for benchmarks in Australia and Japan.
Asian stocks dipped across the board as investors interpreted the US Federal Reserve's latest policy statements as signaling higher-for-longer interest rates.
Asian economies are increasingly investing in their own region, leading to greater trade integration and financial flows within Asia, as well as significant investments in infrastructure and development finance, with implications for the global economic and political landscape.
Asia-Pacific markets are mixed as investors await inflation data from Singapore, Australia, and Japan, with Japan's inflation data for the Tokyo region seen as a leading indicator of nationwide trends.
Asian markets may be bolstered by Wall Street's performance, but concerns regarding the surging dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and troubles in the Chinese property sector may dampen investor enthusiasm.
Asian currencies showed mixed movements against the US dollar, with the Japanese yen slightly down, the Singapore dollar up, and the Taiwanese dollar unchanged, among others; overall, there has been varied performance in currency rates across the region in 2023 so far.
Asian markets may be boosted by positive sentiment following a deal to prevent a U.S. government shutdown, but mixed Chinese data and a struggling economy may put a dampener on gains; central bank decisions and inflation data will also be watched closely this week.
Asian markets prepare for the release of the U.S. payrolls report, while also focusing on data from Japan and the Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision.
Asian markets are expected to open higher following a rebound in risk sentiment driven by comments from Fed officials suggesting a possible pause in rate hikes, resulting in gold and oil prices rising, the dollar weakening, and Wall Street recovering from losses.
Asian markets are expected to start positively due to a slump in U.S. bond yields and comments from Federal Reserve officials signaling the end of interest rate hikes, despite concerns in China's property sector and other economic indicators.
Asian markets are expected to have a positive start on Wednesday, driven by a slump in U.S. bond yields and comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggesting that the Federal Reserve has finished raising rates, easing concerns and boosting risk appetite.
Asia's stock markets rise on stimulus hopes in China and strong earnings in South Korea, while the dollar retreats as Federal Reserve officials adopt a dovish tone on interest rates.
Asian shares rise as markets bet that U.S. rates have peaked after more dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, while traders await the U.S. consumer inflation report for further monetary policy clues.
Investors in Asian markets are expected to be cautious as they focus on Chinese producer and consumer price inflation, which will indicate if wider deflationary pressures are cooling in the country's struggling economy.
Asian shares slide on stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer prices, increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping rates higher for longer.
China's weak economic recovery and the risks associated with its property crisis are likely to impact Asia's economic prospects, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), leading to a cloudier outlook for the region and potential spillover effects on commodity-exporting countries with close trade links to China. The IMF revised its growth estimate for Asia down to 4.2% for 2024, and emphasized the need for central banks in the region to exercise caution in cutting interest rates due to sticky core inflation and other global factors such as the Middle East conflict. Additionally, the IMF warned that Japan's normalization of monetary policy could have significant global implications.
Asian policymakers are using unconventional measures, such as bond sales, to protect their currencies from the impact of rising US interest rates and global tensions, which are causing outflows from the region's lower benchmark rates; while these measures don't replace the use of foreign-exchange reserves, they reduce the amount needed.
Asian markets are expected to open higher as investors focus on U.S. economic and corporate factors, despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
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