Main financial assets discussed: Emerging market stocks, Indian stocks, iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA), iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF (SMIN), WisdomTree India Earnings Fund ETF (EPI)
Top 3 key points:
1. Emerging markets have outperformed all other global sectors, including the United States, since the late 1980s.
2. Emerging markets are currently undervalued compared to the U.S. market, making them an attractive investment opportunity.
3. India is a particularly promising emerging market due to its balanced economy, improving standards of living, and strong demographic advantages.
Recommended actions: **Buy** India Small Caps (SMIN) ETF.
### Summary
India's retail inflation in July rose to 7.44%, higher than market expectations, and is expected to remain elevated in Q3. The global currency market is experiencing significant turbulence, with the USD appreciating despite economic weaknesses. Heightened inflation and volatility in the currency market pose risks to the Indian market.
### Facts
- India's retail inflation in July was 7.44%, exceeding market expectations.
- Elevated inflation is expected to continue in Q3.
- The global currency market is experiencing turmoil, with the USD appreciating despite economic frailty.
- FII outflows have increased, but India's equity market is performing better than other emerging markets.
- The RBI has revised its inflation forecast upward and expects inflation to decrease to 5.7% in Q3.
- High interest rates and inflation are expected to impact corporate earnings growth and valuation.
- India's one-year forward P/E valuation has decreased from 20x to 18.5x.
- Bond yields have increased, leading to a divestment of equities and acquisition of bonds.
- The domestic market is supported by restrained FII divestment, robust purchasing by DIIs and retail participants, and outperformance compared to other emerging markets.
- Selling in global equities has increased due to concerns of deflation and defaults in China's realty and finance sectors.
- The author expects the selling from FIIs to continue in the short-term due to elevated global bond yields, US credit downgrade, and slowdown in emerging markets, but India will continue to outperform.
- In the last month, the MSCI World index was down 4.2% compared to MSCI India's 1.85% decrease.
### Summary
India's total exports and imports of goods and services surpassed $800 billion in the first half of 2023, with a healthy growth in the services sector offsetting a slowdown in global demand.
### Facts
- 📈 Exports of goods and services rose by 1.5% to $385.4 billion in January-June 2023 compared to the same period in 2022.
- 📉 Imports declined by 5.9% to $415.5 billion during the first half of 2023, compared to January-June 2022.
- 💵 Standalone goods exports dropped by 8.1% to $218.7 billion, while imports contracted by 8.3% to $325.7 billion.
- 💼 Services exports grew by 17.7% to $166.7 billion, while imports rose by 3.7% to $89.8 billion during the six-month period.
- 💰 The depreciation of the Indian Rupee didn't prevent the decline in merchandise exports, and weak global demand and loss of competitiveness in labor-intensive sectors contributed to the modest decline.
- 🌍 Several factors, including conflicts, inflation, monetary policies, and financial uncertainty, are expected to weaken world trade in 2023.
- 🛡️ India should focus on increasing product quality and supply chain competitiveness, retain policy space in free trade agreements and Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF), and be prepared to respond to unilateral policy decisions.
- 📊 Among the product categories contributing to India's exports, 11 out of 29 registered positive export growth, while 18 declined during January-June 2023.
- 📱 Smartphone exports surged to $7.5 billion in the first half of 2023, up from $2.5 billion in the same period in 2022.
- 🌐 India's exports declined in 134 of the 240 countries it exports goods to, with major declines observed in the USA, UAE, China, Bangladesh, and Germany.
- 🌐 India's export promotion should focus on the 41 countries where its exports exceed $1 billion, accounting for 87% of its exports.
- 👥 The top 15 countries with which India has the highest trade deficit include China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Switzerland.
- 📉 The share of free trade agreement partners in India's merchandise exports decreased from 30.1% in the first half of 2022 to 26.8% in 2023.
- ⛽ Import of crude petroleum declined by 7.6% to $73.2 billion in January-June 2023, with Russia's share in India's import of petroleum crude increasing significantly.
- 🌍 Import growth from major suppliers like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE declined during this period.
India has become an attractive destination for global electronics manufacturers, with companies like Apple, Cisco, and Luxshare setting up manufacturing operations in the country to diversify from China and tap into India's large market, workforce, and vibrant presence of micro, small, and medium enterprises; however, there is a need for policy intervention to ensure growth extends beyond assembly units and focuses on creating an ecosystem for component manufacturing and value-addition to move up the value chain.
Engineering exports from India to Russia experienced a significant surge in July 2023, more than doubling expectations, while exports to the US and China faced setbacks, highlighting the need for Indian exporters to explore the untapped potential of African and Latin American markets.
UBS reports higher than expected profits, job creation in the US slows, and markets rally on weaker economic data and hope for a pause in interest rate hikes. China's factory activity shrinks but at a slower pace, while retail sales increase. There are opportunities for investors in other Asian markets.
Foreign portfolio investment inflows into the Indian markets slowed down in August due to concerns about rate hikes in the US, resulting in higher bond yields and a stronger dollar, but India remains an attractive market for investors compared to other emerging markets.
China's exports are expected to contract at a slower pace in August, with a projected fall of 9.2%, as manufacturers continue to face pressure due to weak overseas demand and a shrinking labor market.
India's services industry experienced a slight slowdown in August, but overall conditions remained strong with record-high exports, indicating that the country will continue to be the fastest-growing major economy.
China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7 in August, indicating a slight improvement in domestic demand, while the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 51, suggesting a slowdown in the services sector; however, the composite PMI remained in expansion territory, indicating a modest cyclical recovery is likely.
Emerging markets, particularly China, are facing challenges such as weak economic activity, real estate debt issues, regulatory environment, and market concentration, while the U.S. market is performing well; however, emerging markets outside of China, like India, are showing promise due to supply chain diversification, infrastructure investment opportunities, and a pro-business government. Other attractive markets include Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia.
With the right reforms, India has the potential to become the next engine of global growth, benefiting from major economic re-alignments caused by China's slowdown and the US diversifying its supply chains. Major corporations are already investing in India, recognizing its potential. However, India needs to overcome challenges such as high tariffs, infrastructure improvements, and regional cooperation to fully realize its manufacturing potential and attract foreign investment.
India could be one of the fastest-growing markets for JPMorgan in the Asia Pacific region next year, as companies look to diversify their supply chains beyond China and take advantage of India's scale and potential for high-end manufacturing.
Emerging markets experienced a volatile quarter with China's struggling economy, rising oil prices, and increasing US yields causing the worst stock decline in a year, leading to concerns about the outlook for the last quarter of 2023.
China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) indicates expansion for the first time since March, suggesting that the Chinese economy may be regaining momentum, while bumper travel figures during the Golden Week holiday are also seen as a positive sign, despite concerns over the troubled property sector.
U.S. manufacturing showed signs of recovery in September, with the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) increasing to 49.0, the highest reading since November 2022, and new orders and factory employment improving, according to a survey by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). However, the PMI remained below 50 for the 11th straight month, indicating contraction in manufacturing.
India's inclusion in JPMorgan's emerging market bond index signals major changes in the global capital markets, boosting capital inflows by $20-25 billion and improving liquidity for Indian assets and the rupee, ultimately attracting more investment. India's rise in the global economy will have significant consequences, positioning it as a nonaligned player and surpassing China in certain measures, while ongoing disputes with Pakistan and China continue to shape its geopolitical landscape.
Asia's competitive advantage has shifted from cheap labor to industrial services, including logistics, waste management, and data centers, according to a report by KKR's heads of global and Asia macro, who believe that the demand for infrastructure and logistics in countries like India, China, Japan, and others will continue to accelerate. Japan, in particular, is experiencing a capex cycle and corporate reform that is boosting shareholder returns, making it an attractive investment opportunity. Meanwhile, India is witnessing significant growth in infrastructure investment and exports, leading to increased productivity and economic growth. China's economy is undergoing a transition, with a growing digital economy and emphasis on decarbonization.
The US economy is predicted to slow down by mid next year, which will have a negative impact on global GDP, according to Neelkanth Mishra, Chief Economist for Axis Bank. Mishra also mentioned that China will grow slowly but not collapse, while India will be affected through various pathways such as a decline in services growth, goods demand, dumping of products, and financial market volatility. However, he believes that India's trajectory looks good in the next 5-7 years.
