Germany's business activity has seen a sharp decline, leading to concerns of a recession, as the country's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dipped to its lowest level in over three years. This decline in activity is impacting the wider eurozone economy as well, with the region at risk of slipping into recession. This economic downturn is accompanied by a worrying uptick in inflation and slow growth, particularly in Germany.
Investors are becoming increasingly concerned about the state of China's economy as informal gauges, such as PMI surveys and soft surveys, indicate a deep-seated confidence problem and a potential miss of the country's 5% growth target this year, leading to a retreat from global assets exposed to the slowdown.
China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7 in August, indicating a slight improvement in domestic demand, while the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 51, suggesting a slowdown in the services sector; however, the composite PMI remained in expansion territory, indicating a modest cyclical recovery is likely.
The Services PMI® registered 54.5 percent in August, indicating expansion in the services sector for the eighth consecutive month, with growth in business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries.
Asian markets are expected to finish the week strong due to positive movements in the U.S. and Europe, although the release of economic data from China may dampen the mood, as it includes indicators such as house prices, fixed asset investment, and unemployment. The Chinese government is aiming to support the economy, but doubts remain about reaching the 5% GDP growth target and trade relations with the West continue to deteriorate. However, if investors continue with the bullish momentum from Thursday, these concerns may be temporarily set aside.
The latest PMI data shows a contraction in developed markets, while emerging markets continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace, indicating overall solid performance in the third quarter of 2023. However, new export orders for emerging market manufacturing contracts at a slower rate, and India remains a bright spot amid the global headwinds.
China's economic data for August shows a mixed picture, with retail sales and production on the rise, property investment declining, and the urban jobless rate ticking downward, leading experts to believe that while there may be modest improvements in growth, a strong recovery is still unlikely.
China's economy is showing signs of a stronger recovery, with indicators such as increased activity around shopping malls, a pickup in cement manufacturing, and a surge in traffic congestion, suggesting renewed consumer confidence and a positive direction for the construction sector.
China's factory activity expanded for the first time in six months in September, indicating that the country's economy is beginning to stabilize after a period of decline.
Investors are hoping for positive economic data to start the fourth quarter, with a round of purchasing managers index (PMI) data from Europe and speeches from U.S. central bank officials being closely watched.
U.S. manufacturing showed signs of recovery in September, with the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) increasing to 49.0, the highest reading since November 2022, and new orders and factory employment improving, according to a survey by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). However, the PMI remained below 50 for the 11th straight month, indicating contraction in manufacturing.
