U.S. manufacturing activity rose in August, but the sector remains in contraction territory according to the Institute for Supply Management, suggesting that a sustained recovery is unlikely amid a weakening global economy.
Large numbers of job cuts and reduced investment are hitting British manufacturing due to a slump in demand, according to the deputy editor of The Telegraph, Tim Wallace. The purchasing managers’ index fell to 43 in August, down from 45.3 in July, the lowest reading since August 2014 and the worst performance since May 2020, shortly after the first Covid-19 lockdown, also the worst since the financial crisis. Wallace cites Make UK economist Fhaheen Khan’s view that interest rates and inflation have lowered sales, sparking job cuts.
Stock markets showed signs of improvement last week, fueled by hopes of a Goldilocks economic scenario, despite downward revisions in Q2 GDP growth and a slowdown in housing prices, while robust hiring and a decline in wage growth raised concerns about a cooling job market. The strength of U.S. consumers and the moderation of the Consumer Confidence index are factors that could influence the Federal Reserve's decisions on inflation, with investors advised to rely on trustworthy data and analysis. Noteworthy upcoming earnings and dividend announcements include Zscaler, Gitlab, GameStop, C3ai, American Eagle, DocuSign, and Kroger. Key economic reports this week will focus on Factory Orders, ISM Services PMI, and Q2 Non-Farm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7 in August, indicating a slight improvement in domestic demand, while the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 51, suggesting a slowdown in the services sector; however, the composite PMI remained in expansion territory, indicating a modest cyclical recovery is likely.
The Eurozone construction PMI in August 2023 decreased slightly to 43.4, marking the sixteenth consecutive month of decline, while the pan-European Stoxx 600 index fell by 0.89%, led by losses in the financial services and banking sectors.
The latest PMI data shows a contraction in developed markets, while emerging markets continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace, indicating overall solid performance in the third quarter of 2023. However, new export orders for emerging market manufacturing contracts at a slower rate, and India remains a bright spot amid the global headwinds.
The U.S. auto industry is expected to see a strong recovery in the third quarter, with sales volumes in September forecasted to increase by over 13% from 2022, and Q3 sales to surpass 3.9 million, a jump of more than 15% from the same timeframe last year.
China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) indicates expansion for the first time since March, suggesting that the Chinese economy may be regaining momentum, while bumper travel figures during the Golden Week holiday are also seen as a positive sign, despite concerns over the troubled property sector.
The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in September for the 11th consecutive month, but at a slower rate, with new orders remaining in contraction territory and prices decreasing, according to the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.
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