📉 Money managers who loaded up on US government bonds as a bet against recession are now facing subpar returns and a deepening selloff as Treasury yields rise.
📉 The annual return on US government bonds turned negative last week as Treasury yields reach a 15-year high, suggesting that interest rates will remain elevated and the economy can handle it.
📉 Bob Michele, CIO for fixed income at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, remains undeterred and is buying every dip in bond prices.
📉 Other prominent money managers, including Allianz Global Investors, Abrdn Investments, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, and DoubleLine Capital, believe that the impact of Federal Reserve rate hikes is just starting to be felt by the economy and predict a recession.
📉 Fund managers are making adjustments to duration to hedge their positions, with some shortening duration while others maintain overweight positions.
📉 Historical patterns suggest that rate hikes often lead to slumping economies, but it remains uncertain whether yields will follow the same pattern this time.
📉 The borrowing needs of wealthy economies and the flood of debt issuance may lead to higher yields.
📉 Despite the current environment, some funds that took short bond, long stock positions have faced significant drawdowns, indicating that rates may remain elevated.
📉 J.P. Morgan's Michele is confident that bond yields will fall once the Fed finishes its tightening cycle, even before the first rate cut.
Surging U.S. Treasury yields are causing concern among investors as they wonder how much it will impact the rally in stocks and speculative assets, with the S&P 500, technology sector, bitcoin, and high-growth names all experiencing losses; rising rates are making it more difficult for borrowers and increasing the appeal of risk-free Treasury yields.
The recent spike in U.S. bond yields is not driven by inflation expectations but by economic resilience and high bond supply, according to bond fund managers, with factors such as the Bank of Japan allowing yields to rise and an increase in the supply of U.S. government bonds playing a larger role.
Despite the appearance of a "Goldilocks" economy, with falling inflation and strong economic growth, rising yields on American government bonds are posing a threat to financial stability, particularly in the commercial property market, where owners may face financial distress due to a combination of rising interest rates and remote work practices. This situation could also impact other sectors and lenders exposed to commercial real estate.
U.S. Treasury yields rise as investors await jobs report for insight into the economy and Fed's monetary policy decisions.
Treasury yields are on the move and investors should pay attention to where they might be headed next.
Despite the recent increase in bond yields, investors are advised to continue buying Treasury yields as they are expected to rise further in the coming months.
Treasury yields are expected to rise in the future, which could have a negative impact on the stock market.
Bond investors are faced with the decision of how much risk to take with Treasury yields at their highest levels in more than a decade and the Federal Reserve signaling a pause in rate hikes.
U.S. Treasury yields rose as investors considered future interest rates and awaited economic data, with expectations that rates will remain higher and uncertainties surrounding a potential government shutdown and the upcoming Fed meetings.
Mounting fears of rates staying elevated for longer sent jitters through global risk assets, pushing U.S. Treasury yields to a peak not seen since the early stages of the 2007-2008 financial crisis and the dollar to a 10-month high.
Government bond yields are spiking in the US, Europe, and the UK due to investors realizing that central bank interest rates may remain high for an extended period, and concerns over inflation and supply shortages caused by the retirement of baby boomers.
Households and hedge funds are increasingly investing in the Treasury market as yields on bonds rise, attracting investors amid rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
The bond market is causing concern for investors, particularly due to the actions of bond vigilantes who have increased control over the Treasury market and are pushing up yields. This has raised worries about the escalating federal budget deficit and its impact on bond demand and market clearing. The vigilantes have also left the high-yield corporate debt market untouched, leading to speculation about their views on government securities.
The article discusses the recent rise in Treasury yields and explores the positive aspects of higher bond yields.
CNBC's Rick Santelli discusses rising bond yields and their implications for the Federal Reserve as he sees the Fed running out of options.
DoubleLine Capital founder Jeff Gundlach warns that soaring bond yields indicate a recession is imminent in the US.
Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds are rising uncontrollably, causing ripple effects in financial markets, as the 10-year Treasury yield reaches its highest level since August 2007, resulting in plummeting bond prices and impacting various assets such as stocks and gold. The rise in Treasury yields is attributed to factors such as the U.S. government's expanding budget deficit, the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening program, and its restrictive stance on interest rates.
Federal Reserve officials are not concerned about the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields and believe it could actually be beneficial in combating inflation. They also stated that if the labor market cools and inflation returns to the desired target, interest rates can remain steady. Higher long-term borrowing costs can slow the economy and ease inflation pressures. However, if the rise in yields leads to a sharp economic slowdown or unemployment surge, the Fed will react accordingly.
Market observers are concerned about a sharp jump in Treasury yields similar to that of the 1987 crash, and Saxo Bank's chief investment officer Steen Jakobsen suggests that investors reduce risk by increasing cash balances, hedging portfolios, rotating into short-term bonds, favoring defensive sectors over cyclicals, and avoiding mega-cap stocks.
Federal Reserve officials view the increasing yields on long-term US Treasury debt as a sign that their tight-money policies are effective, although they do not see it as a cause of concern for the economy at this point.
Longer-term Treasurys and other fixed income investments are recommended to navigate the impact of rising bond yields, offering attractive opportunities and higher yields to those looking to park their cash.
The rise in Treasury bond yields above 5% could lead to a more sustainable increase and potential havoc in financial markets, as investors demand greater compensation for risk and corporate credit spreads widen, making government debt a more attractive option and leaving the stock market vulnerable to declines; despite this, stock investors appeared unfazed by the September jobs report and all three major stock indexes were higher by the end of trading.
Investors' nerves were settled by dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, suggesting that rising yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds could have a similar market effect as formal monetary policy moves, potentially reducing the need for further rate hikes.
Rising interest rates on government bonds could pose a threat to the U.S. economy, potentially slowing growth, increasing borrowing costs, and impacting the Biden administration's priorities and the 2024 presidential election.
Rising concerns over U.S. government spending and the budget deficit have led to a sell-off in Treasury bonds, pushing prices to 17-year lows as bond vigilantes punish profligate governments by selling their bonds.
Bond market strategists are maintaining their predictions that U.S. Treasury yields will decrease by the end of the year and that 10-year yields have reached their peak, despite recent sell-offs and a strong U.S. economy.
Long-dated Treasury yields heading back towards 5% has led to a selloff of government debt and a rise in the dollar, undercutting the Federal Reserve's arguments for avoiding another rate hike.
Investors are wary of rising Treasury yields and may be ready to sell equities if yields exceed 5%, which could compound selling pressure and potentially lead to losses in stocks, according to Bank of America's Michael Hartnett.
Federal Reserve officials are expected to pause on raising interest rates at their next meeting due to recent increases in bond yields, but they are not ruling out future rate increases as economic data continues to show a strong economy and potential inflation risks. The Fed is cautious about signaling an end to further tightening and is focused on balancing the risk of overshooting inflation targets with the need to avoid a recession. The recent surge in bond yields may provide some restraint on the economy, but policymakers are closely monitoring financial conditions and inflation expectations.
The rising 10-year Treasury bond yield is causing concern for the Fed as investors are drawn to the Treasury Term Premium.
Bond yields have surged as investors realize they are a poor hedge against inflation, while stocks are a much better option, according to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel.
The relentless selling of U.S. government bonds has caused Treasury yields to reach their highest level in over 15 years, impacting stocks, real estate, and the global financial system as a whole.
The relentless selling of U.S. government bonds has driven Treasury yields to their highest level in over a decade, impacting stocks, real estate, and other markets.
US Federal Reserve policymakers believe that the recent rise in bond yields is not solely due to market expectations of further rate hikes but is also influenced by factors such as the return of the "term premium," which could reduce the need for additional rate hikes.
The recent surge in the 10-year Treasury yield could continue to rise due to factors such as global conflicts and the sustainability of US debt, according to Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, suggesting investors may need to include these risks in the premium for holding long-term government debt.
The rapid increase in US government bond yields, similar to previous occurrences, has raised concerns about the possibility of back-to-back recessions, despite the economy's current resilience and strength.
The bond market is experiencing a significant resurgence with soaring yields, raising concerns about the impact on the economy, inflation, consumer loan rates, and trade flows. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the bond market, as higher yields can help quell inflation, but also increase costs and limit business activity. The bond market plays a critical role in financing government debt, and its power and influence cannot be ignored.
Investors are turning to US Treasury bonds with yields near 5%, the highest since 2007, for healthy, low-risk returns as the stock market remains volatile.
