The blog emphasizes that the war on inflation has been won and that a recession is coming, as indicated by various indicators such as CPI, recession probabilities, freight industry performance, and weak retail sales. The post also highlights the struggles in China's economy and suggests that investors should buy bonds.
Treasury yields reach new decade highs in Asia as traders become concerned about the duration of elevated interest rates, causing a dampening effect on stocks, particularly in China, even as some markets attempt to rebound.
US bond-market selloff continues as resilient economy prompts investors to anticipate elevated interest rates even after the Federal Reserve finishes its hikes, leading to a 16-year high in 10-year yields and increased inflation expectations.
Bond selling has driven 10-year Treasury yields to 16-year highs, possibly due to the timing of the Bank of Japan's signal to allow higher yields and speculation on the upcoming Federal Reserve symposium, with implications for risk appetite and a focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech.
Surging U.S. Treasury yields are causing concern among investors as they wonder how much it will impact the rally in stocks and speculative assets, with the S&P 500, technology sector, bitcoin, and high-growth names all experiencing losses; rising rates are making it more difficult for borrowers and increasing the appeal of risk-free Treasury yields.
Asian currencies slightly rose as U.S. yields increased, prompting Thailand's and China's central banks to stabilize their currencies, while the Philippines' central bank stated it may intervene to support its currency; additionally, traders are anticipating the U.S. Federal Reserve's symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
The Chinese bond market is experiencing a significant shift due to concerns over China's economic growth prospects, including a bursting property bubble and lack of government stimulus, leading to potential capital flight and pressure on the yuan, which could result in increased selling of US Treasuries by Chinese banks and a rethink of global growth expectations.
Gold and silver prices rise as the weaker U.S. dollar index and dip in U.S. Treasury yields attract futures traders and bargain hunters, while anxieties build over upcoming speeches from the Fed and ECB on future monetary policy direction and the potential shift in the Fed's inflation goal.
Government bonds rallied as yields on longer-dated Treasurys retreated, while stock indexes closed mixed for the week and Bitcoin declined, with oil prices pushing higher and overseas stocks declining.
Despite the inverted yield curve, which traditionally predicts an economic downturn, the US economy has remained strong due to factors such as fiscal and monetary stimulus efforts and a lag time before interest rate hikes impact the economy, but some bond market experts believe the yield curve will eventually prove to be a good indicator for the market and the economy.
The recent sell-off in US bonds has led to a rise in the yield-to-duration ratio, indicating that yields would need to increase significantly to generate losses, providing a potential floor for the struggling market.
U.S. economic growth, outpacing other countries, may pose global risks if the Federal Reserve is forced to raise interest rates higher than expected, potentially leading to financial tightening and ripple effects in emerging markets.
The dollar is expected to continue strengthening as bond yields rise, with the Fed likely to hike rates at least once more this year, and a barrage of economic data this week will heavily influence Fed policy decisions and impact the direction of the dollar and interest rates.
US Treasuries are attracting investors despite the possibility of interest rate hikes, as the potential income from high yields outweighs the potential losses from rate increases.
Despite the appearance of a "Goldilocks" economy, with falling inflation and strong economic growth, rising yields on American government bonds are posing a threat to financial stability, particularly in the commercial property market, where owners may face financial distress due to a combination of rising interest rates and remote work practices. This situation could also impact other sectors and lenders exposed to commercial real estate.
U.S. Treasury yields rise as investors await jobs report for insight into the economy and Fed's monetary policy decisions.
The 10-year Treasury bond is a "screaming buy" for investors as the yield is likely to fall over the next year due to the Fed's success in curbing inflation, according to BMO Capital Markets head of US rates strategy Ian Lyngen.
The U.S. is currently experiencing a prolonged high inflation cycle that is causing significant damage to the purchasing power of the currency, and the recent lower inflation rate is misleading as it ignores the accumulated harm; in order to combat this cycle, the Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates higher than the inflation rate and reverse its bond purchases.
U.S. stock futures decline as bond yields rise despite weak economic news from China and Europe.
A surge in bond issuance by U.S. investment-grade-rated companies is putting pressure on long-end U.S. Treasuries as investors opt for higher-yielding corporate debt over government bonds.
Inflation has decreased significantly in recent months, but the role of the Federal Reserve in this decline is questionable as there is little evidence to suggest that higher interest rates led to lower prices and curtailed demand or employment. Other factors such as falling energy prices and the healing of disrupted supply chains appear to have had a larger impact on slowing inflation.
Asian markets are weighed down by concerns over high U.S. bond yields, a strong dollar, China's economic struggles, and rising oil prices.
U.S. Treasury yields dropped as concerns over potential interest rate hikes grew due to recent economic data, including lower jobless claims and sustained inflationary pressures.
Bond traders are anticipating that the Federal Reserve will continue with interest-rate hikes, and next week's consumer-price index report will provide further insight on how much more tightening may be required to control inflation.
The Wall Street Journal reports a notable shift in the stance of Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rates, with some officials now seeing risks as more balanced due to easing inflation and a less overheated labor market, which could impact the timing of future rate hikes. In other news, consumer credit growth slows in July, China and Japan reduce holdings of U.S. Treasury securities to record lows, and Russia's annual inflation rate reached 5.2% in August 2023.
Investors are growing increasingly concerned about the ballooning U.S. federal deficit and its potential impact on the bond market's ability to finance the shortfall at current interest rates, according to Yardeni Research.
Popular analyst Arthur Hayes argues that traditional economic theories about Bitcoin's relationship with interest rates will fail due to the US government's substantial debt, as inflation may become "sticky" and bond yields may not keep up with GDP growth, leading bondholders to seek higher yielding "risk assets" like Bitcoin.
Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, including a rise in producer prices and retail sales, has sparked concerns about sticky inflation and has reinforced the belief that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.
US high-yield issuers could face a surge in defaults if inflation continues to accelerate, with a 5% inflation rate potentially causing a full-scale default wave, according to Bank of America Corp. credit strategist Oleg Melentyev.
Despite assurances from policymakers and economists, inflation in the US continues to rise, posing significant challenges to the economy and financial stability.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady and signal that it is done raising rates for this economic cycle, as the bond market indicates that inflation trends are moving in the right direction.
The Federal Reserve's continued message of higher interest rates is expected to impact Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, with the 10-year Treasury yield predicted to experience a slight increase and the U.S. dollar expected to edge higher.
Treasury yields rise and stocks fall as traders anticipate longer-lasting higher rates to prevent inflation, while Brent oil briefly surpasses $95 a barrel; the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates is eagerly awaited by investors.
U.S. Treasury yields dip slightly as investors await the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and guidance, while the 10-year yield remains near 16-year highs.
High-yield bonds outperforming relative to corporate bonds suggests a risk-on environment for stocks, according to a bullish signal in the bond market.
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