The blog emphasizes that the war on inflation has been won and that a recession is coming, as indicated by various indicators such as CPI, recession probabilities, freight industry performance, and weak retail sales. The post also highlights the struggles in China's economy and suggests that investors should buy bonds.
US bond-market selloff continues as resilient economy prompts investors to anticipate elevated interest rates even after the Federal Reserve finishes its hikes, leading to a 16-year high in 10-year yields and increased inflation expectations.
Asian stocks, particularly Chinese markets, may find some relief after Wall Street's resilience in the face of rising bond yields, though economic data from China remains underwhelming and foreign investors continue to sell Chinese stocks.
Asian market sentiment is expected to be cautious and nervous due to the strength of the U.S. dollar, rising bond yields, tightening financial conditions, and concerns over China's economy.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is rising to its highest level since 2007, and this is due in part to reduced demand from foreign countries, such as Japan and China, who are diversifying their investments away from U.S. Treasurys.
Asian markets are expected to follow the global trend of weakness in stocks, a buoyant dollar, elevated bond yields, and souring investor sentiment, with no major catalysts to change the current market condition.
The recent spike in U.S. bond yields is not driven by inflation expectations but by economic resilience and high bond supply, according to bond fund managers, with factors such as the Bank of Japan allowing yields to rise and an increase in the supply of U.S. government bonds playing a larger role.
Japanese and Chinese central banks have significantly reduced their holdings of US Treasury bonds, making it less likely that their interventions in the foreign exchange market would disrupt global markets or strike fear into bond investors.
China's economic challenges, including deflationary pressures and a slowdown in various sectors such as real estate, are likely to have a global impact and may continue to depress inflation in both China and other markets, with discounting expected to increase in the coming quarters.
China's economy is at risk of entering a debt-deflation loop, similar to Japan's in the 1990s, but this can be avoided if policymakers keep interest rates below a crucial level to stimulate economic growth.
China's recent sale of its US Treasurys is a reflection of economic weakness and an attempt to prop up its weakening currency, not a sign of strength, according to Carson Group.
Bond market investors will closely watch U.S. jobs data and European inflation numbers, while China's efforts to stabilize its markets and economy continue, and the impact of El Nino poses a threat to global food supplies.
The US bond market faced selling pressure as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirmed the central bank's readiness to raise interest rates and maintain them at higher levels to address inflation concerns.
Global investors are skeptical of China's ability to stabilize its financial markets, with many predicting that economic pressures will cause the offshore exchange rate of the yuan to reach record lows.
China's economic slowdown is causing alarm worldwide, with countries experiencing a slump in trade, falling commodity prices, and a decrease in Chinese demand for goods and services, while global investors are pulling billions of dollars from China's stock markets and cutting their targets for Chinese equities.
US Treasuries are attracting investors despite the possibility of interest rate hikes, as the potential income from high yields outweighs the potential losses from rate increases.
Investors should consider moving into longer-dated bonds as historical data shows that the broader U.S. bond market typically outperforms short-term Treasurys at the end of Federal Reserve rate hiking cycles, according to Saira Malik, chief investment officer at Nuveen.
China stocks rise as investors welcome Beijing's efforts to support the market, while bonds rally and the dollar dips on possibly softening U.S. data.
China is facing increasing financial stress as a property giant seeks to avoid default and a state-run bad debt manager experiences a bond slump, contributing to concerns about the country's economy.
China's largest banks are preparing to cut interest rates on existing mortgages and deposits in an effort to stimulate consumer spending and support economic growth; the move is part of the government's targeted measures to alleviate pressure on lenders' profit margins and encourage investment in the stock market.
Despite the appearance of a "Goldilocks" economy, with falling inflation and strong economic growth, rising yields on American government bonds are posing a threat to financial stability, particularly in the commercial property market, where owners may face financial distress due to a combination of rising interest rates and remote work practices. This situation could also impact other sectors and lenders exposed to commercial real estate.
UBS reports higher than expected profits, job creation in the US slows, and markets rally on weaker economic data and hope for a pause in interest rate hikes. China's factory activity shrinks but at a slower pace, while retail sales increase. There are opportunities for investors in other Asian markets.
The U.S. is currently experiencing a prolonged high inflation cycle that is causing significant damage to the purchasing power of the currency, and the recent lower inflation rate is misleading as it ignores the accumulated harm; in order to combat this cycle, the Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates higher than the inflation rate and reverse its bond purchases.
Equities rose on Monday as market participants speculated that the Federal Reserve may be nearing the end of its interest rate hike cycle, following a positive US jobs report and signs of a softening labor market. Additionally, investors were hopeful that China would implement measures to stimulate its economy and property sector.
China's economy risks falling into a vicious cycle of debt and deflation, but economist Shang-Jin Wei suggests that launching an aggressive bond-buying campaign and allowing the yuan to lose value may be necessary to avoid this trap.
A surge in bond issuance by U.S. investment-grade-rated companies is putting pressure on long-end U.S. Treasuries as investors opt for higher-yielding corporate debt over government bonds.
The Wall Street Journal reports a notable shift in the stance of Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rates, with some officials now seeing risks as more balanced due to easing inflation and a less overheated labor market, which could impact the timing of future rate hikes. In other news, consumer credit growth slows in July, China and Japan reduce holdings of U.S. Treasury securities to record lows, and Russia's annual inflation rate reached 5.2% in August 2023.
China's credit demand improved, deflationary pressures eased, and the yuan rallied, indicating signs of stabilization in the economy and financial markets after a sharp downturn.
Chinese property stocks and Japanese government bonds set the tone for global markets as the Hang Seng property index dropped to a fresh September low before rebounding on news that Country Garden won creditor support to delay onshore bond payments, while the Bank of Japan's comments about potential stimulus exit in 2023 pushed the local bond market, and the week ahead is marked by important policy meetings by the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve, and the ECB.
The stock market is expected to reach new highs by the end of the year, as a leading bond market indicator signals a bullish trend, according to Bank of America.
The US bond market has consistently indicated a potential recession for over 212 consecutive trading days, despite the resilient economy, suggesting a disconnect between market signals and economic reality.
A retreat of funds from Chinese stocks and bonds is diminishing China's global market influence and accelerating its decoupling from the rest of the world, due to economic concerns, tensions with the West, and a property market crisis.
The real estate crisis in China has caused bond default rates to increase in the Asia-Pacific region, with defaults occurring more quickly than globally despite Asia's better credit rating.
Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries increased for a second consecutive month in July, reaching $7.655 trillion, despite uncertain interest rates and mixed economic data, with China's holdings dropping to the lowest level since 2009, potentially due to pressure to defend its weakening currency.
China is experiencing a significant outflow of capital, putting pressure on the yuan and raising concerns for authorities as the currency weakens and financial markets become destabilized.
The outlook of U.S. companies on China's markets in the next five years has hit a record low due to factors such as political tensions, tariffs, slow Covid recovery, and issues in the real estate market; however, complete decoupling between the two economies is unlikely.
