### Summary
The global economy is showing signs of decoupling, with the US economy remaining strong and China's economy disappointing at the margin. The recent data suggests that the US economy is resilient, with consumption and other indicators pointing in a positive direction. However, there are concerns about the bear steepening of the US curve and the repricing of the long end of the curve. In contrast, China's economy continues to struggle, with weak data and monetary policy easing. Japan has surprised with positive data, but there are questions about whether the current inflation shift will lead to tighter monetary policy. Overall, there are concerns about a potential global economic recession and its impact on various economies.
### Facts
- 💰 Despite the decoupling of the US and China economies, concerns remain about the negative impact of a China slowdown on global growth.
- 💹 Recent data show that the US economy, particularly consumption, remains resilient.
- 🔒 The bear steepening of the US curve and the repricing of the long end of the curve are causing concerns.
- 🇨🇳 In China, weak data on consumption and investment and declining house prices continue to affect the economy. The PBoC has eased monetary policy.
- 🇯🇵 Japan's 2Q data surprised with strong export growth, but there are concerns about the impact of a potential inflation shift on global yields.
- 🌍 The global economy is at risk of recession, with concerns about the impact on emerging market economies and the US economy.
### Summary
Growing concerns about global economic growth and uncertainties in monetary policy have led to turbulence in financial markets, with rising bond yields and a decline in equity markets. Key factors affecting growth include interest rates, bond yields, and access to funds, which may result in a credit crunch and a more risk-averse environment in capital markets. China's shift towards self-sufficiency, combined with a more prudent policy environment, slower population growth, and trade sanctions, will lead to slower and more erratic growth in the country. Although there are near-term concerns, the longer-term outlook for global growth remains positive.
### Facts
- Global economic growth is a concern, reflected in rising bond yields and a decline in equity markets.
- Policymakers, particularly in the US, are worried about overtightening monetary policy.
- Western economies, including the UK, have proven resilient despite expectations of a recession.
- Lower inflation will boost spending power, but growth will depend on where interest rates and bond yields settle.
- Businesses face challenges in raising funds due to a credit crunch, tough lending conditions, and a risk-averse capital market environment.
- The International Monetary Fund forecasts global growth to slow from 3.5% last year to 3% this year and next, with Asia being a major driver.
- Concerns about deflation in China exist, but low inflation is more likely.
- China's shift towards self-sufficiency in response to trade wars has coincided with a more prudent policy environment and the need to curb inflation and manage debt overhang.
- A shrinking population and structural changes in China will result in slower and more erratic growth.
- Private sector activity remains strong in Asia, and Japan's economy is experiencing an economic rebound.
- Western economies previously experienced a prolonged period of cheap money, which led to imbalances and misallocation of capital.
- Prudent monetary policy in some emerging economies provides more room to act in response to economic weakness.
- Concerns exist regarding rising policy rates in the US, UK, and euro area and the tightening of central banks' balance sheets.
- The definition of a risk-free asset is being questioned, as government bonds, previously considered safe, have witnessed negative total returns.
- There has been a rise in shadow banking and non-bank financial institutions, with collateral in the form of government bonds playing a crucial role.
Overall, the focus is shifting from inflation to growth, and future policy rates may need to settle at a high level. High levels of public and private debt globally limit policy maneuverability and expose individuals and firms to higher interest rates.
### Summary
China has only made a small trim to its benchmark lending rate, disappointing analysts and putting pressure on Chinese blue-chips and the yuan. However, Beijing seems unlikely to launch fiscal stimulus to boost the economy. Meanwhile, the United States has a large budget deficit, which may explain the strong GDP growth.
### Facts
- 💼 China cuts one-year benchmark lending rate by 10 basis points, surprising analysts who expected bigger cuts.
- 💼 Pressure on Chinese blue-chips and yuan continues despite attempts by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to support it.
- 💼 Western investors expect Beijing to provide fiscal stimulus, but there are no signs of compliance from authorities.
- 💼 China's securities regulator unveils measures to boost investor confidence, with several companies announcing plans to buy their own shares.
- 💼 PBOC announces coordination of financial support to resolve local government debt issues and encourages banks to lend more.
- 💼 Chinese shares stabilize after initial decline, Nikkei and Aussie recover.
- 💼 United States has a large budget deficit, running at an annual $1.6 trillion, potentially driving unexpected GDP growth.
- 💼 Fed Chair Jerome Powell faces a messaging challenge at the Jackson Hole meeting this week regarding strong GDP growth and inflation decline.
- 💼 Key developments that could influence markets on Monday include a joint press conference of Finance Ministers and German producer price data for July.
China is facing a severe economic downturn, with record youth unemployment, a slumping housing market, stagnant spending, and deflation, which has led to a sense of despair and reluctance to spend among consumers and business owners, potentially fueling a dangerous cycle.
The blog emphasizes that the war on inflation has been won and that a recession is coming, as indicated by various indicators such as CPI, recession probabilities, freight industry performance, and weak retail sales. The post also highlights the struggles in China's economy and suggests that investors should buy bonds.
Asian stocks, particularly Chinese markets, may find some relief after Wall Street's resilience in the face of rising bond yields, though economic data from China remains underwhelming and foreign investors continue to sell Chinese stocks.
World markets experienced some relief as the bond squeeze eased, with investors eagerly awaiting signals from the Federal Reserve conference in Jackson Hole and hopeful for a resurgence of the early-year AI craze. President Xi Jinping's attendance at the BRICS summit in South Africa also provided some positivity for China's economy.
The Chinese bond market is experiencing a significant shift due to concerns over China's economic growth prospects, including a bursting property bubble and lack of government stimulus, leading to potential capital flight and pressure on the yuan, which could result in increased selling of US Treasuries by Chinese banks and a rethink of global growth expectations.
China's economic challenges, including deflationary pressures and a slowdown in various sectors such as real estate, are likely to have a global impact and may continue to depress inflation in both China and other markets, with discounting expected to increase in the coming quarters.
China's economy is at risk of entering a debt-deflation loop, similar to Japan's in the 1990s, but this can be avoided if policymakers keep interest rates below a crucial level to stimulate economic growth.
Asian markets will be influenced by economic indicators, policy steps, and diplomatic signals from China, as well as reacting to the Jackson Hole speeches, purchasing managers index reports, GDP data, and inflation figures throughout the week, with investors desperate for signs of economic improvement as China's industrial profits continue to slump and authorities take measures to stimulate the capital market.
Asian shares rally as China announces new measures to support its struggling markets, while investors remain cautious ahead of U.S. jobs and inflation data that could impact interest rates.
China's economy is struggling due to an imbalance between investments and consumption, resulting in increased debt and limited household spending, and without a shift towards consumption and increased policy measures, the economic slowdown may have profound consequences for China and the world.
Emerging markets were shaken by investor concerns over the US economy and the strengthening dollar, causing an equity rally led by China's stimulus plans to be short-lived.
Falling prices in China, driven by a weakened economy, could benefit countries with elevated inflation such as the U.S., India, Germany, and the Netherlands.
China's economic boom, once seen as a miracle, now appears to be a mirage due to failed reforms, an outdated reliance on old economic models, and a growing debt burden, raising concerns about the nation's economic future and the potential for a financial crisis.
China's economy is showing signs of slowing down, including a decrease in GDP growth rate, declining exports, deflationary consumer price index, high youth unemployment, a weakening yuan, and a decrease in new loans, which could have global implications.
China is considering further easing measures in the property market and increasing fiscal support for infrastructure investment to boost economic growth in the fourth quarter, as sluggish demand remains a challenge.
China's economy risks falling into a vicious cycle of debt and deflation, but economist Shang-Jin Wei suggests that launching an aggressive bond-buying campaign and allowing the yuan to lose value may be necessary to avoid this trap.
China's new yuan loans are expected to rebound in August after a decline in July, as the central bank implements measures to support economic growth during soft domestic and international demand.
China is showing signs of a balance-sheet recession similar to Japan's, with accumulating debt and falling house prices, but there are key differences that suggest it may not face the same fate. State-owned enterprises and property developers account for much of China's debt, and households have low debt relative to their assets. However, the Chinese government's reluctance to increase spending could prolong the recession.
China's central bank will take measures to boost demand, support price rebound, and create a favorable monetary and financial environment to enhance economic vitality, according to an unnamed senior central bank official.
The dollar remains stable in Asia, while the yuan strengthens due to positive economic data from China.
A retreat of funds from Chinese stocks and bonds is diminishing China's global market influence and accelerating its decoupling from the rest of the world, due to economic concerns, tensions with the West, and a property market crisis.
Signs of improvement in China's economy, such as improving credit demand and easing deflationary pressures, may not be enough to stabilize the economy due to bigger concerns of decreasing affordability, tight wages, and rising costs that have not been addressed. A comprehensive policy revamp may be necessary for China's economy to recover.
China is experiencing a significant outflow of capital, putting pressure on the yuan and raising concerns for authorities as the currency weakens and financial markets become destabilized.
China's credit is expanding rapidly, with total social financing increasing by over 3 trillion yuan in August, mainly driven by government financing, indicating positive signs of economic stabilization and recovery from the slump in the second quarter. Additionally, recent policy measures, particularly in fiscal and property sectors, are expected to further stimulate the economy.
China is expected to maintain its benchmark lending rates as oil prices rise and market sentiment is affected; meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, Japan's trade data, and the United Nations General Assembly will also influence Asian markets.
China maintains benchmark lending rates unchanged as signs of economic stabilization and a weakening yuan lessen the need for immediate monetary easing.
Concerns over a possible U.S. government shutdown, rising oil prices, and a heavy schedule of Treasury debt sales are adding pressure to the markets, along with the ongoing property crisis in China and the effects of last week's hawkish Federal Reserve projections.
Asian markets may be bolstered by Wall Street's performance, but concerns regarding the surging dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and troubles in the Chinese property sector may dampen investor enthusiasm.
The International Monetary Fund believes that China's economy can accelerate growth over the medium term through reforming its economy to shift towards consumer spending from investment, although recent data shows signs of stabilization.
Asian markets are expected to start positively due to a slump in U.S. bond yields and comments from Federal Reserve officials signaling the end of interest rate hikes, despite concerns in China's property sector and other economic indicators.
