### Summary
The pace of Ukraine's counter-offensive has been disappointing, leading to frustrated expectations and increased criticism of President Zelensky. Ukraine is also facing challenges with the delayed arrival of Western equipment and lack of air cover.
### Facts
- The pace of Ukraine's counter-offensive has been slower than expected, leading to frustrated expectations and criticism of President Zelensky.
- Western equipment promised to Ukraine has not arrived in the expected numbers, causing frustration and demotivation.
- Allies' equivocation about the supply of newer weapons and the prospect of Donald Trump's re-election adds to Ukrainian anxieties.
- Ukraine's army lacks resources for frontal attacks and is focusing on degrading the enemy through artillery, drones, and electronic warfare.
- Recent advances have been made in the southern theatre, but Ukraine is still far from its strategic goal of nearing the Azov Sea before late October.
- Rumors of early parliamentary and presidential elections have circulated, with the logic that it would be better for Zelensky to seek re-election while still a national hero.
- Conducting elections during a war would be complex, and the idea of early elections currently lacks popular demand.
- Peace negotiations with Russia are unlikely without a military breakthrough, as there is still a strong desire to regain lost territory.
- The burden of the war falls heavily on Ukraine's young generation, who face conscription and the constant threat of being sent to the front.
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Reports of corruption and mismanagement of funds in Ukraine could potentially harm Western support for the country's war effort, despite the Biden administration's announcement of a new round of assistance worth up to $1 billion.
The head of the International Rescue Committee, David Miliband, warns that the ongoing war in Ukraine is being normalized and expresses concern over the US presidential election and the potential scaling back of US aid to Ukraine.
Ukraine's military is making "very tangible progress" in its counteroffensive against Russian forces, according to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who visited the country to showcase U.S. support.
The West's reluctance to provide sufficient military aid to Ukraine and growing concerns over corruption may lead to a Russian victory and a defeat for NATO, necessitating a robust damage-limitation strategy and continued economic warfare against Russia.
Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, believes that the West must continue its support for the country in order to counter Russia's attempts to exhaust Ukraine and wear out its partners' resolve, as a long war would weaken both Russia and its leader, Vladimir Putin.
Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that he is preparing for a prolonged war in Ukraine, stating that Kyiv could potentially use any ceasefire to rearm and that the US will continue to view Russia as an enemy regardless of the outcome of the 2024 US election.
Ukraine's military offensive against Russian forces in the south and east has made limited progress, prompting discussions about whether the US and other Western countries should provide more powerful weapons or seek a negotiated settlement.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasizes that US financial support to Ukraine is not only about aiding the country in its fight against Russia, but also about preventing Vladimir Putin's further global aggression.
US military aid and training for Ukrainian forces may be disrupted in the event of a US government shutdown, potentially impacting the ongoing conflict with Russia and the delivery of key equipment.
Ukraine needs to shift its focus from post-war recovery to preparing for a long war, as a ceasefire or peace talks with Russia are unlikely, and instead should aim to ensure it has the staying power to thrive despite the ongoing conflict, according to The Economist.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed optimism about receiving additional assistance from the US and emphasized the importance of maintaining global unity in the face of Russian aggression, while acknowledging the need to continue pushing back against Putin's military threats.
The Pentagon has announced that US aid to Ukraine will continue even if the government shuts down, as its budget for weapons and humanitarian aid has been ringfenced as part of a contingency plan to keep essential parts of Joe Biden's administration afloat.
As support for Ukraine from its international allies declines, there are concerns that Russia may exploit weaknesses and fractures in Ukraine's partnerships, particularly as elections in allied countries approach, and tensions between Ukraine and Poland heighten over agricultural exports.
Growing Republican divisions over U.S. aid to Ukraine are posing a threat to Congress passing additional funding to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia, raising concerns of a government shutdown and highlighting a new isolationist streak within the party.
Ukrainian President Zelensky warns that Russia is relying on eroding U.S. support to win its war against Ukraine, as funding for Ukraine becomes a contentious issue among House Republicans.
Congressional supporters of Ukraine face an uphill battle as a bill to keep the government open excludes President Biden's request for increased security assistance, reflecting a shift in the unwavering US support for Ukraine and the growing isolationist stance of the Republican Party.
U.S. President Joe Biden urges congressional Republicans to support a bill providing aid to Ukraine, emphasizing the importance of maintaining American support for the country in its defense against aggression and brutality from Russia.
Ukrainian officials assure that aid to their country is not at risk, despite the exclusion of $20 billion in assistance for Kyiv in a recent U.S. spending bill.
European Union foreign ministers gathered in Kyiv to show support for Ukraine's fight against Russia's invasion, while Ukraine's government remains cautiously optimistic about securing further aid from the US.
The US will be sending another aid package to Ukraine "soon" to show continued support for the country, according to White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, after the latest government funding bill did not include aid for Ukraine.
The Pentagon is warning Congress that it is running low on funding to replace weapons sent to Ukraine and has already been forced to slow down restocking troops, urging Congress to replenish funding for Ukraine.
Elon Musk's mockery of Ukrainian President Zelensky's appeals for military aid has been praised by Kremlin propagandists, reflecting war fatigue in the US and a push by Republicans to cut aid, according to a Russian news anchor.
The battle over funding for Ukraine is intensifying in the House as lawmakers race to approve funding bills, with some Republicans declaring it an existential threat to global security and vowing to fight for Ukraine to be funded.
Lawmakers supporting U.S. aid to Ukraine are frustrated after a setback in Congress leaves President Biden facing challenges in securing more funds for Ukraine due to deep political divisions and demands for policy changes on the U.S.-Mexico border.
Russia is planning to increase its defense spending by 30%, suggesting that it is preparing for the war in Ukraine to continue for years and hoping that Western support for Ukraine will decrease.
President Biden has expressed concern over the fate of his $24 billion request for Ukraine aid amid disarray in Congress, as the Pentagon warns that military aid in Ukraine is running out and urges lawmakers to approve more aid to prevent disruption in the flow of weapons to Ukraine.
Support for supplying weapons to Ukraine is declining among Americans of both major political parties, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, posing a warning for Kyiv as it relies heavily on US arms to fight against a Russian invasion.
The future of U.S. military and economic aid to Ukraine is uncertain as some Republicans in Congress oppose sending more money, despite President Biden's commitment to support Ukraine in its resistance against Russia.
The collapse of Ukraine aid in Congress is a setback for the Biden administration as a minority of Republican lawmakers, including allies of former President Trump, flex their power and jeopardize assistance, highlighting the challenges of bipartisan support in Washington.
Russian lawmakers are being advised to blame the U.S. for the violence in Israel and Gaza, following Vladimir Putin's lead, as the Kremlin sees it as an opportunity to divert attention from Ukraine.
Despite the significant cost to both human lives and the economy, Moscow has shown its determination to continue its assault on Ukraine with a record increase in defence spending, which accounts for almost a third of all outlays in 2024.
