### Summary
The pace of Ukraine's counter-offensive has been disappointing, leading to frustrated expectations and increased criticism of President Zelensky. Ukraine is also facing challenges with the delayed arrival of Western equipment and lack of air cover.
### Facts
- The pace of Ukraine's counter-offensive has been slower than expected, leading to frustrated expectations and criticism of President Zelensky.
- Western equipment promised to Ukraine has not arrived in the expected numbers, causing frustration and demotivation.
- Allies' equivocation about the supply of newer weapons and the prospect of Donald Trump's re-election adds to Ukrainian anxieties.
- Ukraine's army lacks resources for frontal attacks and is focusing on degrading the enemy through artillery, drones, and electronic warfare.
- Recent advances have been made in the southern theatre, but Ukraine is still far from its strategic goal of nearing the Azov Sea before late October.
- Rumors of early parliamentary and presidential elections have circulated, with the logic that it would be better for Zelensky to seek re-election while still a national hero.
- Conducting elections during a war would be complex, and the idea of early elections currently lacks popular demand.
- Peace negotiations with Russia are unlikely without a military breakthrough, as there is still a strong desire to regain lost territory.
- The burden of the war falls heavily on Ukraine's young generation, who face conscription and the constant threat of being sent to the front.
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Ukraine is developing its drone capabilities, using new types of drones to target Russian-controlled areas and engage in a psychological war, but scaling up production and obtaining resources remains a challenge.
The conflict in Ukraine is reaching a critical point as calls for negotiations grow, but there are concerns about the effectiveness of negotiations with Russia and the lack of clear war aims from Western allies.
Eastern European countries are concerned about Ukraine being pushed into peace talks with Russia, as they believe international partners should focus on supporting Ukraine to achieve a decisive victory.
Ukraine's military has reported advances and strong defense along the front lines of its war with Russia, with Moscow acknowledging tension in the southern sector but dismissing Kyiv's campaign as unsuccessful.
Ukraine's military is making "very tangible progress" in its counteroffensive against Russian forces, according to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who visited the country to showcase U.S. support.
Ukraine's former defense minister warns that negotiations with Russia won't bring peace as Putin aims to destroy Ukraine and assimilate its citizens into the Russian Federation, emphasizing the need for international support to prevent world war III.
Ukrainian Armed Forces advance against Russian positions near Robotyne and maintain pressure on Russian positions south of Bakhmut while Russia faces limitations due to redeployments and slow Western aid, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who also denounces Russian bombing of Ukrainian cities and Moscow-organized local elections in Ukraine.
Russia may be able to increase artillery production but still falls short of its needs for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, according to a Western official.
Officials at the G20 summit expressed a desire for "just and durable peace" in Ukraine, but Russia successfully watered down a statement on the war, avoiding any mention of its military action "against Ukraine."
The West's reluctance to provide sufficient military aid to Ukraine and growing concerns over corruption may lead to a Russian victory and a defeat for NATO, necessitating a robust damage-limitation strategy and continued economic warfare against Russia.
Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, believes that the West must continue its support for the country in order to counter Russia's attempts to exhaust Ukraine and wear out its partners' resolve, as a long war would weaken both Russia and its leader, Vladimir Putin.
The Biden administration is considering approving the shipment of longer-range missiles with cluster bombs to Ukraine, which would give them the ability to cause significant damage within Russian-occupied territory, according to U.S. officials.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has requested weapons and support from North Korea amid the invasion of Ukraine, but experts doubt it will significantly impact the war, according to Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
America's top military commander warns that Ukraine has limited time to pursue a stagnating military offensive, as tensions with Western allies rise, potentially putting Ukraine and the US at odds.
Russian President Vladimir Putin suggests that Ukraine is likely to initiate peace talks only when it runs out of resources and would use any ceasefire to rearm with Western assistance again.
Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that he is preparing for a prolonged war in Ukraine, stating that Kyiv could potentially use any ceasefire to rearm and that the US will continue to view Russia as an enemy regardless of the outcome of the 2024 US election.
An alliance between North Korea and Russia could impact the conflict in Ukraine by providing Russia with additional weapons and potentially escalate the nuclear arms race in Asia.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have experienced gains in certain areas while conducting offensive operations against Russian forces, inflicting significant losses on the enemy and forcing them to withdraw from their positions.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov commented on the US government's intention to provide Ukraine with long-range ATACMS missiles, stating that it will not change the essence of the ongoing conflict, as he believes Ukraine is being prepared to fight for the strategic defeat of Russia.
Ukraine's defense intelligence agency head, Lieutenant-General Kyrylo Budanov, asserts that despite the slow progress, Ukraine's counter-offensive against Russia is ongoing, and Russia's defensive line in southern Ukraine has been breached in some places, potentially cutting off land connections to Crimea before winter; however, he acknowledges the risk of Ukraine running down its own resources and the uncertainties regarding the continuation of Western support.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy emphasized the need for Ukrainian defenders to continue moving forward in the slow counteroffensive against Russia, stating that even short distances must be gained to prevent giving Putin a break and liberate territory.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasizes that US financial support to Ukraine is not only about aiding the country in its fight against Russia, but also about preventing Vladimir Putin's further global aggression.
Delivering new aid to Ukraine to defend against Russia is increasingly difficult due to skepticism and dysfunction among House Republicans and divided opinions among Senate Republicans, potentially delaying the much-needed assistance.
Ukraine needs to shift its focus from post-war recovery to preparing for a long war, as a ceasefire or peace talks with Russia are unlikely, and instead should aim to ensure it has the staying power to thrive despite the ongoing conflict, according to The Economist.
Despite facing Western sanctions, Russia has managed to sustain its economy through increased military spending, but questions remain about the long-term viability of this militarization.
Ukraine may receive long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) from the US, which would enhance their ability to strike deep behind enemy lines, but it would not be enough to radically change the course of the war without additional military capabilities.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has stated that while Russia is open to negotiations regarding Ukraine, it will not consider any proposals for a cease-fire as it believes it has been deceived before, and suggests that the issue will ultimately be resolved on the battlefield; Lavrov also criticizes the West for allegedly disregarding the seriousness of the conflict and accuses them of failing to fulfill obligations and negotiate in good faith.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov criticized Ukraine's 10-point peace plan at the UN, stating that the war would have to be resolved "on the battlefield" if more realistic terms were not offered.
Despite increasing tensions and criticism, Israel has been reluctant to provide military aid or air defense systems to Ukraine due to concerns over its own national security, Russo-Iranian cooperation, and a desire to maintain a deconfliction mechanism with Russia in Syria, thus straining relations between the two countries.
The Ukraine war has led to a decrease in global trade between geopolitical blocs, as sanctions and blockades hinder trade flows and countries seek to diversify their sourcing.
As support for Ukraine from its international allies declines, there are concerns that Russia may exploit weaknesses and fractures in Ukraine's partnerships, particularly as elections in allied countries approach, and tensions between Ukraine and Poland heighten over agricultural exports.
Russia's Minister of Defence, Serhii Shoigu, claims that the Russian army is increasing its combat capacity through the acquisition of advanced armament and improved military training based on the experience of the war in Ukraine, as stated in a video published on 26 September.
Russia's potential mobilization for war against Ukraine is becoming less credible, as persistent rumors and misinformation campaigns from Ukraine continue without any actual mobilization, and Ukraine itself is struggling with manpower shortages and the high costs of sustaining its war effort.
Growing Republican divisions over U.S. aid to Ukraine are posing a threat to Congress passing additional funding to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia, raising concerns of a government shutdown and highlighting a new isolationist streak within the party.
Ukrainian President Zelensky warns that Russia is relying on eroding U.S. support to win its war against Ukraine, as funding for Ukraine becomes a contentious issue among House Republicans.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev suggests that British soldiers training Ukrainian troops in Ukraine and German factories producing Taurus missiles supplying Kyiv would be legitimate targets for Russian forces, and warns that such actions by the West are bringing World War Three closer.
The Kremlin believes that the decision by the US Congress to pass a funding bill without aid for Ukraine is a temporary setback for Kyiv, but predicts that war fatigue in the West will increase and lead to a growing split in opinion.
Russia is planning to increase its defense spending by 30%, suggesting that it is preparing for the war in Ukraine to continue for years and hoping that Western support for Ukraine will decrease.
Support for supplying weapons to Ukraine is declining among Americans of both major political parties, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, posing a warning for Kyiv as it relies heavily on US arms to fight against a Russian invasion.
The Biden administration is working to maintain the flow of U.S. weapons to Ukraine despite the political turmoil in Congress, with President Biden planning to deliver a major speech on the importance of arming Ukraine and exploring alternative means of funding.
The future of U.S. military and economic aid to Ukraine is uncertain as some Republicans in Congress oppose sending more money, despite President Biden's commitment to support Ukraine in its resistance against Russia.
Russia expresses its deep concern about the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and calls for an immediate ceasefire and peaceful negotiations with international assistance.
Britain and the US are pressuring the EU to expand and grant Ukraine membership in order to provide financial support and counter Russia, despite concerns about the EU's ability to fund the inclusion of nine new countries.
The US Army's plan to supply bombs and equipment to both Ukraine and Israel is hindered by Congressional chaos and uncertainty.
Ukrainian forces are currently fighting off a major Russian offensive in the strategically important city of Avdiivka, with Russia sending in tanks, armored vehicles, and thousands of troops in an attempt to cut off and surround the Ukrainian forces inside the city's defenses.
