### Summary
The pace of Ukraine's counter-offensive has been disappointing, leading to frustrated expectations and increased criticism of President Zelensky. Ukraine is also facing challenges with the delayed arrival of Western equipment and lack of air cover.
### Facts
- The pace of Ukraine's counter-offensive has been slower than expected, leading to frustrated expectations and criticism of President Zelensky.
- Western equipment promised to Ukraine has not arrived in the expected numbers, causing frustration and demotivation.
- Allies' equivocation about the supply of newer weapons and the prospect of Donald Trump's re-election adds to Ukrainian anxieties.
- Ukraine's army lacks resources for frontal attacks and is focusing on degrading the enemy through artillery, drones, and electronic warfare.
- Recent advances have been made in the southern theatre, but Ukraine is still far from its strategic goal of nearing the Azov Sea before late October.
- Rumors of early parliamentary and presidential elections have circulated, with the logic that it would be better for Zelensky to seek re-election while still a national hero.
- Conducting elections during a war would be complex, and the idea of early elections currently lacks popular demand.
- Peace negotiations with Russia are unlikely without a military breakthrough, as there is still a strong desire to regain lost territory.
- The burden of the war falls heavily on Ukraine's young generation, who face conscription and the constant threat of being sent to the front.
### Emoji
🇺🇦
The conflict in Ukraine is reaching a critical point as calls for negotiations grow, but there are concerns about the effectiveness of negotiations with Russia and the lack of clear war aims from Western allies.
Eastern European countries are concerned about Ukraine being pushed into peace talks with Russia, as they believe international partners should focus on supporting Ukraine to achieve a decisive victory.
Ukraine's former defense minister warns that negotiations with Russia won't bring peace as Putin aims to destroy Ukraine and assimilate its citizens into the Russian Federation, emphasizing the need for international support to prevent world war III.
Officials at the G20 summit expressed a desire for "just and durable peace" in Ukraine, but Russia successfully watered down a statement on the war, avoiding any mention of its military action "against Ukraine."
Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, believes that the West must continue its support for the country in order to counter Russia's attempts to exhaust Ukraine and wear out its partners' resolve, as a long war would weaken both Russia and its leader, Vladimir Putin.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed diplomatic victory at the G20 summit in India, stating that they were able to prevent any direct criticism of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and that the text of the summit does not mention Russia at all.
The Biden administration is considering whether to send long-range missiles to Ukraine, but a final decision has not yet been made, and it is unlikely to happen before the U.N. General Assembly; if approved, the missiles would provide Ukraine with the ability to strike deep into Russian territory.
America's top military commander warns that Ukraine has limited time to pursue a stagnating military offensive, as tensions with Western allies rise, potentially putting Ukraine and the US at odds.
Russian President Vladimir Putin suggests that Ukraine is likely to initiate peace talks only when it runs out of resources and would use any ceasefire to rearm with Western assistance again.
Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that he is preparing for a prolonged war in Ukraine, stating that Kyiv could potentially use any ceasefire to rearm and that the US will continue to view Russia as an enemy regardless of the outcome of the 2024 US election.
Russian President Vladimir Putin called for Ukraine to cancel the ban on negotiations imposed by President Zelensky, emphasizing the need for dialogue and suggesting that talks could be a way for Ukraine to replenish their reserves and reinvigorate their army.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the West of breaking promises on humanitarian support for North Korea and stated that the geopolitical climate has completely changed since the imposition of UN sanctions on the country.
Ukraine's military offensive against Russian forces in the south and east has made limited progress, prompting discussions about whether the US and other Western countries should provide more powerful weapons or seek a negotiated settlement.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will participate in a UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine, where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will also be present, but the potential results are seen as minimal according to the Russian representative to the UN.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov commented on the US government's intention to provide Ukraine with long-range ATACMS missiles, stating that it will not change the essence of the ongoing conflict, as he believes Ukraine is being prepared to fight for the strategic defeat of Russia.
Russia and Ukraine will face off in the International Court of Justice where Russia claims its invasion of Ukraine was to prevent genocide, while Ukraine argues Russia is abusing international law; the case is focused on legal arguments about jurisdiction and has potential future implications for reparations claims.
Ukraine's defense intelligence agency head, Lieutenant-General Kyrylo Budanov, asserts that despite the slow progress, Ukraine's counter-offensive against Russia is ongoing, and Russia's defensive line in southern Ukraine has been breached in some places, potentially cutting off land connections to Crimea before winter; however, he acknowledges the risk of Ukraine running down its own resources and the uncertainties regarding the continuation of Western support.
Ukraine's new defense minister has dismissed seven key officials and plans to sue Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia for refusing to lift a temporary export ban on Ukrainian agricultural products, while the Russian government claims to have no information on the health of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and China's top diplomat is set to discuss the war in Ukraine with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
Russian President Vladimir Putin wants the war in Ukraine to end as soon as possible, according to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but the conflict shows no signs of finishing after almost 19 months.
On September 22, 2021, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov avoided a face-off at the U.N. Security Council, highlighting the U.N.'s role as a venue for diplomatic disputes and the reputation of adversaries talking past each other.
Ukraine needs to shift its focus from post-war recovery to preparing for a long war, as a ceasefire or peace talks with Russia are unlikely, and instead should aim to ensure it has the staying power to thrive despite the ongoing conflict, according to The Economist.
Ukrainian President Zelensky calls for a united front against Russian aggression in his speech at the UN General Assembly and asks former President Trump to share his peace plans, claiming that Trump could get a "fair deal" with Putin to end the war in Ukraine.
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov criticized the United States and Europe for their approach to developing countries and denied the realism of a recent proposal to revive the Black Sea grain deal, while also expressing skepticism of Ukraine's 10-point peace plan and suggesting that the conflict would be resolved on the battlefield.
Russia's top diplomat, Sergei Lavrov, accused Armenian leaders of worsening tensions in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, but expressed hope that Armenia would remain aligned with Russia and friendly regional states rather than outside influences.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov dismissed Ukrainian proposals for restoring pre-invasion territory as "unrealizable" and indicated readiness for war if Ukraine's allies desire it, aligning with the belief that the conflict will persist for years.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov criticized Ukraine's 10-point peace plan at the UN, stating that the war would have to be resolved "on the battlefield" if more realistic terms were not offered.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has expressed support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine based on the 1991 Declaration of Independence, despite Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 and ongoing tensions between the two countries.
As support for Ukraine from its international allies declines, there are concerns that Russia may exploit weaknesses and fractures in Ukraine's partnerships, particularly as elections in allied countries approach, and tensions between Ukraine and Poland heighten over agricultural exports.
Ukrainian President Zelensky warns that Russia is relying on eroding U.S. support to win its war against Ukraine, as funding for Ukraine becomes a contentious issue among House Republicans.
Russia expresses its deep concern about the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and calls for an immediate ceasefire and peaceful negotiations with international assistance.
Russian President Vladimir Putin dismisses suggestions that the United States should prepare for a war against Russia and China, stating that any war with Russia would be on a different level than the conflict in Ukraine.
President Zelenskyy has warned that Ukraine is aware of Russia's intentions and is prepared to respond forcefully, as Ukraine prepares for the winter and receives support from international partners for enhanced air defense capabilities.
