Main Topic: China's involvement in the Ukraine peace talks
Key Points:
1. China's attendance at the peace talks in Saudi Arabia shows its support for diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
2. Some are skeptical of China's ability and motives to mediate the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
3. China's participation in the talks is seen as a way to strengthen its influence among non-Western countries and engage with the Global South.
### Summary
The pace of Ukraine's counter-offensive has been disappointing, leading to frustrated expectations and increased criticism of President Zelensky. Ukraine is also facing challenges with the delayed arrival of Western equipment and lack of air cover.
### Facts
- The pace of Ukraine's counter-offensive has been slower than expected, leading to frustrated expectations and criticism of President Zelensky.
- Western equipment promised to Ukraine has not arrived in the expected numbers, causing frustration and demotivation.
- Allies' equivocation about the supply of newer weapons and the prospect of Donald Trump's re-election adds to Ukrainian anxieties.
- Ukraine's army lacks resources for frontal attacks and is focusing on degrading the enemy through artillery, drones, and electronic warfare.
- Recent advances have been made in the southern theatre, but Ukraine is still far from its strategic goal of nearing the Azov Sea before late October.
- Rumors of early parliamentary and presidential elections have circulated, with the logic that it would be better for Zelensky to seek re-election while still a national hero.
- Conducting elections during a war would be complex, and the idea of early elections currently lacks popular demand.
- Peace negotiations with Russia are unlikely without a military breakthrough, as there is still a strong desire to regain lost territory.
- The burden of the war falls heavily on Ukraine's young generation, who face conscription and the constant threat of being sent to the front.
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The conflict in Ukraine is reaching a critical point as calls for negotiations grow, but there are concerns about the effectiveness of negotiations with Russia and the lack of clear war aims from Western allies.
### Summary
Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un are planning to meet in Russia to discuss possible weapons deals, which could help replenish Russia's ammunition stocks amid Ukraine's counteroffensive.
Eastern European countries are concerned about Ukraine being pushed into peace talks with Russia, as they believe international partners should focus on supporting Ukraine to achieve a decisive victory.
Ukraine's former defense minister warns that negotiations with Russia won't bring peace as Putin aims to destroy Ukraine and assimilate its citizens into the Russian Federation, emphasizing the need for international support to prevent world war III.
President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed Ukraine's path to peace in a phone call with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince and Prime Minister, Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud, on September 8.
Officials at the G20 summit expressed a desire for "just and durable peace" in Ukraine, but Russia successfully watered down a statement on the war, avoiding any mention of its military action "against Ukraine."
Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, believes that the West must continue its support for the country in order to counter Russia's attempts to exhaust Ukraine and wear out its partners' resolve, as a long war would weaken both Russia and its leader, Vladimir Putin.
The Biden administration is considering whether to send long-range missiles to Ukraine, but a final decision has not yet been made, and it is unlikely to happen before the U.N. General Assembly; if approved, the missiles would provide Ukraine with the ability to strike deep into Russian territory.
America's top military commander warns that Ukraine has limited time to pursue a stagnating military offensive, as tensions with Western allies rise, potentially putting Ukraine and the US at odds.
Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that he is preparing for a prolonged war in Ukraine, stating that Kyiv could potentially use any ceasefire to rearm and that the US will continue to view Russia as an enemy regardless of the outcome of the 2024 US election.
Russian President Vladimir Putin called for Ukraine to cancel the ban on negotiations imposed by President Zelensky, emphasizing the need for dialogue and suggesting that talks could be a way for Ukraine to replenish their reserves and reinvigorate their army.
Ukraine's military offensive against Russian forces in the south and east has made limited progress, prompting discussions about whether the US and other Western countries should provide more powerful weapons or seek a negotiated settlement.
The Chief of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine believes that if the war of aggression against Ukraine continues, the Russian economy will only hold out until 2025 and their arms supply will dry up in 2026 or earlier.
Russian President Vladimir Putin wants the war in Ukraine to end as soon as possible, according to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but the conflict shows no signs of finishing after almost 19 months.
Ukraine needs to shift its focus from post-war recovery to preparing for a long war, as a ceasefire or peace talks with Russia are unlikely, and instead should aim to ensure it has the staying power to thrive despite the ongoing conflict, according to The Economist.
Ukrainian President Zelensky calls for a united front against Russian aggression in his speech at the UN General Assembly and asks former President Trump to share his peace plans, claiming that Trump could get a "fair deal" with Putin to end the war in Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has stated that while Russia is open to negotiations regarding Ukraine, it will not consider any proposals for a cease-fire as it believes it has been deceived before, and suggests that the issue will ultimately be resolved on the battlefield; Lavrov also criticizes the West for allegedly disregarding the seriousness of the conflict and accuses them of failing to fulfill obligations and negotiate in good faith.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is confident that Ukraine and Poland will resolve their current crisis in relations, emphasizing their commitment to finding a constructive solution and dispelling the narrative of Ukraine's alleged ungratefulness for help from Poland during the Russian aggression.
The Biden administration is working to maintain the flow of U.S. weapons to Ukraine despite the political turmoil in Congress, with President Biden planning to deliver a major speech on the importance of arming Ukraine and exploring alternative means of funding.
Russia expresses its deep concern about the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and calls for an immediate ceasefire and peaceful negotiations with international assistance.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to delay further mobilizations in the war with Ukraine until after Russia's presidential election in March, potentially weakening Russia's offensives against Ukraine, according to British intelligence assessments.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed concern over the escalation of violence and the increase in civilian casualties in Israel and the Gaza Strip, emphasizing the need for an immediate ceasefire and the resumption of the negotiation process.
