- The article discusses the indictment of former US President Donald Trump for plotting to overturn the 2020 election result.
- It highlights how the Republicans have closed ranks around Trump and argues that only politics, not the law, will stop him in 2024.
- The article also covers the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, with Ukraine's counter-offensive not making the desired progress.
- It mentions Russia's desperate measures to recruit soldiers, including forbidding conscripts from leaving and making it harder to hide within the country.
- The article provides insights for investors, including lessons from a year of surprises and discussions on the future of Alphabet and Volkswagen.
### Summary
The Russian stock market's recent gains are a facade and the country's economy is in decline, according to Yale researchers. Russia's frozen foreign assets and the depreciation of the ruble have artificially inflated stock market profits. Additionally, the economy is suffering from a loss of confidence, with people and money fleeing to neighboring countries.
### Facts
- 📉 The Russian stock market's recent gains are an illusion, masking the true state of the country's struggling economy.
- 🧊 Russia has frozen inflows and outflows of foreign assets, preventing investors from cashing out and propping up the stock market.
- 💸 The depreciation of the ruble has artificially inflated the value of Russian stocks, as the country's commodities are sold in foreign currencies.
- 💼 Workers, academics, and oligarchs are leaving Russia, taking with them technical and intellectual capital essential to the country's economy.
- 💔 Trust in President Vladimir Putin and confidence in the Russian economy have eroded, leading to a lack of domestic and foreign investment.
- 🌍 Neighboring countries like Armenia, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan have become destinations for Russian money and talent fleeing the country.
- 📉 Experts warn that Russia's economy could continue to decline and the country may even become a failed state if the costly war in Ukraine persists.
### Summary
The pace of Ukraine's counter-offensive has been disappointing, leading to frustrated expectations and increased criticism of President Zelensky. Ukraine is also facing challenges with the delayed arrival of Western equipment and lack of air cover.
### Facts
- The pace of Ukraine's counter-offensive has been slower than expected, leading to frustrated expectations and criticism of President Zelensky.
- Western equipment promised to Ukraine has not arrived in the expected numbers, causing frustration and demotivation.
- Allies' equivocation about the supply of newer weapons and the prospect of Donald Trump's re-election adds to Ukrainian anxieties.
- Ukraine's army lacks resources for frontal attacks and is focusing on degrading the enemy through artillery, drones, and electronic warfare.
- Recent advances have been made in the southern theatre, but Ukraine is still far from its strategic goal of nearing the Azov Sea before late October.
- Rumors of early parliamentary and presidential elections have circulated, with the logic that it would be better for Zelensky to seek re-election while still a national hero.
- Conducting elections during a war would be complex, and the idea of early elections currently lacks popular demand.
- Peace negotiations with Russia are unlikely without a military breakthrough, as there is still a strong desire to regain lost territory.
- The burden of the war falls heavily on Ukraine's young generation, who face conscription and the constant threat of being sent to the front.
### Emoji
🇺🇦
Russian President Vladimir Putin has acknowledged the rising risks of inflation and has urged the government and central bank to keep the situation under control, as soaring prices could pose a threat to living standards and his upcoming re-election bid, while Russia's budget is also strained due to its military operation in Ukraine.
Russia's Finance Minister, Anton Siluanov, has stated that the country's economy is expected to grow by 2.5% or more in 2023, with inflation predicted to be around 6%.
Ukraine's economy grew by 2.2% in the first seven months of 2023, recovering from the impact of the Russian invasion in 2022, with the number of registered entrepreneurs surpassing pre-war levels.
Russia may be able to increase artillery production but still falls short of its needs for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, according to a Western official.
Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, believes that the West must continue its support for the country in order to counter Russia's attempts to exhaust Ukraine and wear out its partners' resolve, as a long war would weaken both Russia and its leader, Vladimir Putin.
Germany is predicted to experience a prolonged recession this year, making it the only major European economy to contract in 2023, according to the European Commission, with its growth expectations also being cut for 2024; this is attributed to struggles following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the need to end energy dependency on Moscow.
The Biden administration is considering whether to send long-range missiles to Ukraine, but a final decision has not yet been made, and it is unlikely to happen before the U.N. General Assembly; if approved, the missiles would provide Ukraine with the ability to strike deep into Russian territory.
America's top military commander warns that Ukraine has limited time to pursue a stagnating military offensive, as tensions with Western allies rise, potentially putting Ukraine and the US at odds.
Russian President Vladimir Putin suggests that Ukraine is likely to initiate peace talks only when it runs out of resources and would use any ceasefire to rearm with Western assistance again.
Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that he is preparing for a prolonged war in Ukraine, stating that Kyiv could potentially use any ceasefire to rearm and that the US will continue to view Russia as an enemy regardless of the outcome of the 2024 US election.
Russia has raised its inflation forecast for 2023 and 2024, expecting a weaker rouble as the costs of the war in Ukraine increase.
The Central Bank of Russia has raised its key lending rate to 13% in an effort to combat inflation and stabilize the struggling ruble, which has weakened significantly against the dollar due to decreased exports and increased imports. The country also faces challenges with low unemployment and a brain drain of talent to other former Soviet states. However, the Russian government remains optimistic about economic growth forecasts for 2023.
Russia is predicted to amass a significant stockpile of air-launched cruise missiles to target Ukraine's critical infrastructure during the upcoming winter, according to the UK Defense Ministry.
Ukraine's defense intelligence agency head, Lieutenant-General Kyrylo Budanov, asserts that despite the slow progress, Ukraine's counter-offensive against Russia is ongoing, and Russia's defensive line in southern Ukraine has been breached in some places, potentially cutting off land connections to Crimea before winter; however, he acknowledges the risk of Ukraine running down its own resources and the uncertainties regarding the continuation of Western support.
Hundreds of companies have left Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine, but others remain due to financial concerns, assets being difficult to sell, and humanitarian reasons, however, the long-term consequences for staying in Russia may include reputational damage and potential financial risks.
Russian President Vladimir Putin wants the war in Ukraine to end as soon as possible, according to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but the conflict shows no signs of finishing after almost 19 months.
Poland has announced that it will cease supplying weapons to Ukraine amidst a heated dispute over grain exports, with fears of Ukraine flooding the market with low-cost grains due to blocked Russian export routes through the Black Sea.
Poland has announced that it will no longer send weapons to Ukraine and will focus on arming itself, signaling a potential shift in Europe's strategic relationship with Ukraine in its fight against Russia.
Despite facing Western sanctions, Russia has managed to sustain its economy through increased military spending, but questions remain about the long-term viability of this militarization.
The Pentagon has announced that US aid to Ukraine will continue even if the government shuts down, as its budget for weapons and humanitarian aid has been ringfenced as part of a contingency plan to keep essential parts of Joe Biden's administration afloat.
Russia's economic resilience, fueled by demand from the global south, is surprising analysts and oligarch Oleg Deripaska, who had previously predicted Russia would run out of money next year due to sanctions.
As support for Ukraine from its international allies declines, there are concerns that Russia may exploit weaknesses and fractures in Ukraine's partnerships, particularly as elections in allied countries approach, and tensions between Ukraine and Poland heighten over agricultural exports.
Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska believes that the economy has not collapsed as much as he initially predicted under the weight of Western sanctions in response to Russia's expansion in Ukraine, and argues that countries like China and India are reluctant to sever economic ties with Russia due to their own practical reasons and need for Russian resources. Additionally, Deripaska suggests that Russia is content to maintain the status quo in the conflict, rather than escalate it further.
Russia's economy is expected to grow by 1.5% this year, defying previous projections of contraction and proving more resilient than expected to Western sanctions due to rising oil prices and new export markets, though an eventual slowdown is still predicted.
Ukrainian President Zelensky warns that Russia is relying on eroding U.S. support to win its war against Ukraine, as funding for Ukraine becomes a contentious issue among House Republicans.
Russia is planning to increase its defense spending by 30%, suggesting that it is preparing for the war in Ukraine to continue for years and hoping that Western support for Ukraine will decrease.
Support for supplying weapons to Ukraine is declining among Americans of both major political parties, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, posing a warning for Kyiv as it relies heavily on US arms to fight against a Russian invasion.
The future of U.S. military and economic aid to Ukraine is uncertain as some Republicans in Congress oppose sending more money, despite President Biden's commitment to support Ukraine in its resistance against Russia.
