### Summary
The pace of Ukraine's counter-offensive has been disappointing, leading to frustrated expectations and increased criticism of President Zelensky. Ukraine is also facing challenges with the delayed arrival of Western equipment and lack of air cover.
### Facts
- The pace of Ukraine's counter-offensive has been slower than expected, leading to frustrated expectations and criticism of President Zelensky.
- Western equipment promised to Ukraine has not arrived in the expected numbers, causing frustration and demotivation.
- Allies' equivocation about the supply of newer weapons and the prospect of Donald Trump's re-election adds to Ukrainian anxieties.
- Ukraine's army lacks resources for frontal attacks and is focusing on degrading the enemy through artillery, drones, and electronic warfare.
- Recent advances have been made in the southern theatre, but Ukraine is still far from its strategic goal of nearing the Azov Sea before late October.
- Rumors of early parliamentary and presidential elections have circulated, with the logic that it would be better for Zelensky to seek re-election while still a national hero.
- Conducting elections during a war would be complex, and the idea of early elections currently lacks popular demand.
- Peace negotiations with Russia are unlikely without a military breakthrough, as there is still a strong desire to regain lost territory.
- The burden of the war falls heavily on Ukraine's young generation, who face conscription and the constant threat of being sent to the front.
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Ukraine's military has reported advances and strong defense along the front lines of its war with Russia, with Moscow acknowledging tension in the southern sector but dismissing Kyiv's campaign as unsuccessful.
The West's reluctance to provide sufficient military aid to Ukraine and growing concerns over corruption may lead to a Russian victory and a defeat for NATO, necessitating a robust damage-limitation strategy and continued economic warfare against Russia.
The Biden administration is considering whether to send long-range missiles to Ukraine, but a final decision has not yet been made, and it is unlikely to happen before the U.N. General Assembly; if approved, the missiles would provide Ukraine with the ability to strike deep into Russian territory.
America's top military commander warns that Ukraine has limited time to pursue a stagnating military offensive, as tensions with Western allies rise, potentially putting Ukraine and the US at odds.
Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that he is preparing for a prolonged war in Ukraine, stating that Kyiv could potentially use any ceasefire to rearm and that the US will continue to view Russia as an enemy regardless of the outcome of the 2024 US election.
An alliance between North Korea and Russia could impact the conflict in Ukraine by providing Russia with additional weapons and potentially escalate the nuclear arms race in Asia.
Ukraine's military offensive against Russian forces in the south and east has made limited progress, prompting discussions about whether the US and other Western countries should provide more powerful weapons or seek a negotiated settlement.
Russia is predicted to amass a significant stockpile of air-launched cruise missiles to target Ukraine's critical infrastructure during the upcoming winter, according to the UK Defense Ministry.
North Korea's potential supply of artillery munitions to Russia for the war in Ukraine is unlikely to have a major impact, according to Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
The Chief of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine believes that if the war of aggression against Ukraine continues, the Russian economy will only hold out until 2025 and their arms supply will dry up in 2026 or earlier.
Ukraine needs to shift its focus from post-war recovery to preparing for a long war, as a ceasefire or peace talks with Russia are unlikely, and instead should aim to ensure it has the staying power to thrive despite the ongoing conflict, according to The Economist.
Ukraine may receive long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) from the US, which would enhance their ability to strike deep behind enemy lines, but it would not be enough to radically change the course of the war without additional military capabilities.
As support for Ukraine from its international allies declines, there are concerns that Russia may exploit weaknesses and fractures in Ukraine's partnerships, particularly as elections in allied countries approach, and tensions between Ukraine and Poland heighten over agricultural exports.
Russia's Minister of Defence, Serhii Shoigu, claims that the Russian army is increasing its combat capacity through the acquisition of advanced armament and improved military training based on the experience of the war in Ukraine, as stated in a video published on 26 September.
Russia's potential mobilization for war against Ukraine is becoming less credible, as persistent rumors and misinformation campaigns from Ukraine continue without any actual mobilization, and Ukraine itself is struggling with manpower shortages and the high costs of sustaining its war effort.
Russia is planning to increase its defense spending by 30%, suggesting that it is preparing for the war in Ukraine to continue for years and hoping that Western support for Ukraine will decrease.
Support for supplying weapons to Ukraine is declining among Americans of both major political parties, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, posing a warning for Kyiv as it relies heavily on US arms to fight against a Russian invasion.
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