### Summary
The pace of Ukraine's counter-offensive has been disappointing, leading to frustrated expectations and increased criticism of President Zelensky. Ukraine is also facing challenges with the delayed arrival of Western equipment and lack of air cover.
### Facts
- The pace of Ukraine's counter-offensive has been slower than expected, leading to frustrated expectations and criticism of President Zelensky.
- Western equipment promised to Ukraine has not arrived in the expected numbers, causing frustration and demotivation.
- Allies' equivocation about the supply of newer weapons and the prospect of Donald Trump's re-election adds to Ukrainian anxieties.
- Ukraine's army lacks resources for frontal attacks and is focusing on degrading the enemy through artillery, drones, and electronic warfare.
- Recent advances have been made in the southern theatre, but Ukraine is still far from its strategic goal of nearing the Azov Sea before late October.
- Rumors of early parliamentary and presidential elections have circulated, with the logic that it would be better for Zelensky to seek re-election while still a national hero.
- Conducting elections during a war would be complex, and the idea of early elections currently lacks popular demand.
- Peace negotiations with Russia are unlikely without a military breakthrough, as there is still a strong desire to regain lost territory.
- The burden of the war falls heavily on Ukraine's young generation, who face conscription and the constant threat of being sent to the front.
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The conflict in Ukraine is reaching a critical point as calls for negotiations grow, but there are concerns about the effectiveness of negotiations with Russia and the lack of clear war aims from Western allies.
Eastern European countries are concerned about Ukraine being pushed into peace talks with Russia, as they believe international partners should focus on supporting Ukraine to achieve a decisive victory.
The Biden administration will send depleted-uranium munitions to Ukraine as part of a new military aid package, despite concerns about health risks and Russian propaganda.
A Russian missile struck an outdoor market in eastern Ukraine, killing 17 people and injuring dozens, as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Kyiv to announce over $1 billion in new American funding for Ukraine in the ongoing war.
Ukraine's former defense minister warns that negotiations with Russia won't bring peace as Putin aims to destroy Ukraine and assimilate its citizens into the Russian Federation, emphasizing the need for international support to prevent world war III.
Ukrainian Armed Forces advance against Russian positions near Robotyne and maintain pressure on Russian positions south of Bakhmut while Russia faces limitations due to redeployments and slow Western aid, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who also denounces Russian bombing of Ukrainian cities and Moscow-organized local elections in Ukraine.
Russia may be able to increase artillery production but still falls short of its needs for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, according to a Western official.
The European Union condemns the "illegitimate" elections held in Russian-annexed parts of Ukraine, while a UN official says that Russia's aggression in Ukraine is synonymous with torture and inhuman cruelty; meanwhile, the Kremlin spokesperson claims that no one will be able to compete with Putin if he runs for president in 2024, and the UN Human Rights Commissioner states that Russia's withdrawal from a grain deal is fueling global food insecurity. Ukrainian forces regain control of drilling platforms near the Crimean coast and Putin arrives in Vladivostok for the Eastern Economic Forum, while South Korean media reports that Kim Jong Un is en route to Russia, and Ukraine reports advances in Bakhmut and Donetsk city. Finally, Brazil's President Lula says it's up to the judiciary whether to arrest Putin if he visits the country.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has requested weapons and support from North Korea amid the invasion of Ukraine, but experts doubt it will significantly impact the war, according to Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
America's top military commander warns that Ukraine has limited time to pursue a stagnating military offensive, as tensions with Western allies rise, potentially putting Ukraine and the US at odds.
Russian President Vladimir Putin suggests that Ukraine is likely to initiate peace talks only when it runs out of resources and would use any ceasefire to rearm with Western assistance again.
Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that he is preparing for a prolonged war in Ukraine, stating that Kyiv could potentially use any ceasefire to rearm and that the US will continue to view Russia as an enemy regardless of the outcome of the 2024 US election.
An alliance between North Korea and Russia could impact the conflict in Ukraine by providing Russia with additional weapons and potentially escalate the nuclear arms race in Asia.
Ukraine has shelled Russia's Belgorod region, launched airstrikes on occupied Crimea, and destroyed Russian air defense systems in Crimea, resulting in casualties and damage; meanwhile, Russian President Putin has accepted an invitation to visit North Korea and is expecting a visit from Belarusian President Lukashenko.
Ukraine's military offensive against Russian forces in the south and east has made limited progress, prompting discussions about whether the US and other Western countries should provide more powerful weapons or seek a negotiated settlement.
The United States and Germany are discussing the transfer of ATACMS and Taurus long-range missiles to Ukraine, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasizing that it is up to the Ukrainian Armed Forces to decide how they will use the weapons.
The Biden administration is reportedly not planning to decide on the transfer of ATACMS missiles to Ukraine during President Zelenskyy's upcoming visit to Washington next week, as discussions within the administration are ongoing regarding the matter.
Russia is predicted to amass a significant stockpile of air-launched cruise missiles to target Ukraine's critical infrastructure during the upcoming winter, according to the UK Defense Ministry.
North Korea's potential supply of artillery munitions to Russia for the war in Ukraine is unlikely to have a major impact, according to Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov commented on the US government's intention to provide Ukraine with long-range ATACMS missiles, stating that it will not change the essence of the ongoing conflict, as he believes Ukraine is being prepared to fight for the strategic defeat of Russia.
Four Republican senators are urging President Joe Biden to immediately supply ATACMS long-range missiles to Ukraine in order to strengthen their ability to counter Russia's occupation and defend their national security interests.
Ukraine's defense intelligence agency head, Lieutenant-General Kyrylo Budanov, asserts that despite the slow progress, Ukraine's counter-offensive against Russia is ongoing, and Russia's defensive line in southern Ukraine has been breached in some places, potentially cutting off land connections to Crimea before winter; however, he acknowledges the risk of Ukraine running down its own resources and the uncertainties regarding the continuation of Western support.
The Chief of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine believes that if the war of aggression against Ukraine continues, the Russian economy will only hold out until 2025 and their arms supply will dry up in 2026 or earlier.
President Joe Biden will defend democracy and rally support for Ukraine at the United Nations General Assembly, while also facing domestic challenges such as funding fights with House Republicans and fallout from the indictment of his son, Hunter.
Biden warns against Russia brutalizing Ukraine without consequences, emphasizing US support for Ukraine and its efforts for a diplomatic resolution; he also urges the UN to uphold the UN Charter in addressing the Russian invasion.
Ukraine's special services are likely responsible for drone strikes on Wagner-backed forces in Sudan, raising concerns about the escalation of Russia-Ukraine conflict beyond the frontlines; Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell defends Ukraine's request for more aid ahead of Ukrainian President Zelensky's visit to the US Capitol; President Zelensky warns the UN General Assembly that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is not only about Ukraine but also about weaponizing food and energy and turning other countries' power plants into "dirty bombs"; Zelensky calls for global unity to defeat Russia's aggression and accuses Russia of kidnapping Ukrainian children and weaponizing the food supply; Russian President Putin is seeking support from North Korea and Iran while Ukraine continues to gain support from numerous countries.
Poland has announced that it will no longer send weapons to Ukraine and will focus on arming itself, signaling a potential shift in Europe's strategic relationship with Ukraine in its fight against Russia.
Ukraine needs to shift its focus from post-war recovery to preparing for a long war, as a ceasefire or peace talks with Russia are unlikely, and instead should aim to ensure it has the staying power to thrive despite the ongoing conflict, according to The Economist.
Ukrainian President Zelensky calls for a united front against Russian aggression in his speech at the UN General Assembly and asks former President Trump to share his peace plans, claiming that Trump could get a "fair deal" with Putin to end the war in Ukraine.
U.S. President Joe Biden has reportedly informed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that the United States will provide Kyiv with ATACMS long-range missiles to help attack and disrupt supply lines, air bases, and rail networks in Russian-occupied territory.
The Biden administration is nearing a decision to provide Ukraine with long-range ATACMS missiles that scatter cluster bomblets, despite concerns about their maximum range reaching into Russia.
Ukraine may receive long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) from the US, which would enhance their ability to strike deep behind enemy lines, but it would not be enough to radically change the course of the war without additional military capabilities.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has stated that while Russia is open to negotiations regarding Ukraine, it will not consider any proposals for a cease-fire as it believes it has been deceived before, and suggests that the issue will ultimately be resolved on the battlefield; Lavrov also criticizes the West for allegedly disregarding the seriousness of the conflict and accuses them of failing to fulfill obligations and negotiate in good faith.
The Pentagon has announced that US aid to Ukraine will continue even if the government shuts down, as its budget for weapons and humanitarian aid has been ringfenced as part of a contingency plan to keep essential parts of Joe Biden's administration afloat.
As support for Ukraine from its international allies declines, there are concerns that Russia may exploit weaknesses and fractures in Ukraine's partnerships, particularly as elections in allied countries approach, and tensions between Ukraine and Poland heighten over agricultural exports.
The Bulgarian National Assembly has approved a proposal to send defective anti-aircraft missiles and ammunition to Ukraine, with experts stating that the equipment cannot be repaired in Bulgaria but can be in Ukraine.
Russia accused the United States and the United Kingdom of assisting Ukraine in planning a missile strike on the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea Fleet in Crimea.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev suggests that British soldiers training Ukrainian troops in Ukraine and German factories producing Taurus missiles supplying Kyiv would be legitimate targets for Russian forces, and warns that such actions by the West are bringing World War Three closer.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev stated that if British troops were deployed to Ukraine for training purposes, they would become legitimate targets for Russian military strikes, following discussions of the UK moving military hardware production and training closer to Ukraine.
President Joe Biden plans to deliver a "major" speech on funding for Ukraine, highlighting its importance for the United States and its allies, amid concerns about the U.S. being unable to deliver aid to Ukraine due to the political situation on Capitol Hill.
President Biden has expressed concern over the fate of his $24 billion request for Ukraine aid amid disarray in Congress, as the Pentagon warns that military aid in Ukraine is running out and urges lawmakers to approve more aid to prevent disruption in the flow of weapons to Ukraine.
The Biden administration is working to maintain the flow of U.S. weapons to Ukraine despite the political turmoil in Congress, with President Biden planning to deliver a major speech on the importance of arming Ukraine and exploring alternative means of funding.
The future of U.S. military and economic aid to Ukraine is uncertain as some Republicans in Congress oppose sending more money, despite President Biden's commitment to support Ukraine in its resistance against Russia.
