Main Topic: Aerial attacks between Russia and Ukraine
Key Points:
1. Moscow accuses Kyiv of carrying out drone attacks as a response to a struggling counteroffensive.
2. Russia is stepping up its air defenses in response to the drone attacks.
3. Ukraine suggests that the war is "returning" to Russia's territory, marking a new chapter in the conflict.
### Summary
The pace of Ukraine's counter-offensive has been disappointing, leading to frustrated expectations and increased criticism of President Zelensky. Ukraine is also facing challenges with the delayed arrival of Western equipment and lack of air cover.
### Facts
- The pace of Ukraine's counter-offensive has been slower than expected, leading to frustrated expectations and criticism of President Zelensky.
- Western equipment promised to Ukraine has not arrived in the expected numbers, causing frustration and demotivation.
- Allies' equivocation about the supply of newer weapons and the prospect of Donald Trump's re-election adds to Ukrainian anxieties.
- Ukraine's army lacks resources for frontal attacks and is focusing on degrading the enemy through artillery, drones, and electronic warfare.
- Recent advances have been made in the southern theatre, but Ukraine is still far from its strategic goal of nearing the Azov Sea before late October.
- Rumors of early parliamentary and presidential elections have circulated, with the logic that it would be better for Zelensky to seek re-election while still a national hero.
- Conducting elections during a war would be complex, and the idea of early elections currently lacks popular demand.
- Peace negotiations with Russia are unlikely without a military breakthrough, as there is still a strong desire to regain lost territory.
- The burden of the war falls heavily on Ukraine's young generation, who face conscription and the constant threat of being sent to the front.
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Ukraine's military has reported advances and strong defense along the front lines of its war with Russia, with Moscow acknowledging tension in the southern sector but dismissing Kyiv's campaign as unsuccessful.
Ukraine's military is making "very tangible progress" in its counteroffensive against Russian forces, according to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who visited the country to showcase U.S. support.
Ukrainian forces have gained control of more than half of the village of Klishchiivka, south of Bakhmut, destroying almost all Russian equipment in the sector, according to Deputy Commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade Maksym Zhorin; however, air strikes and electronic warfare systems remain a challenge for Ukrainian troops.
Ukrainian Armed Forces advance against Russian positions near Robotyne and maintain pressure on Russian positions south of Bakhmut while Russia faces limitations due to redeployments and slow Western aid, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who also denounces Russian bombing of Ukrainian cities and Moscow-organized local elections in Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his forces in occupied southern Ukraine are determined to retain control of Crimea, as it is key to Russia's regional power projection and allows them to dominate the Black Sea region, project force into the Mediterranean, and supply their units in neighboring oblasts.
The West's reluctance to provide sufficient military aid to Ukraine and growing concerns over corruption may lead to a Russian victory and a defeat for NATO, necessitating a robust damage-limitation strategy and continued economic warfare against Russia.
Ukrainian forces have regained control of gas and oil offshore drilling platforms near Crimea, previously occupied by Russia, in a strategic operation that deprives Russia of military capabilities and brings Ukraine closer to regaining Crimea.
Ukraine's military offensive against Russian forces in the south and east has made limited progress, prompting discussions about whether the US and other Western countries should provide more powerful weapons or seek a negotiated settlement.
Ukraine's defense intelligence agency head, Lieutenant-General Kyrylo Budanov, asserts that despite the slow progress, Ukraine's counter-offensive against Russia is ongoing, and Russia's defensive line in southern Ukraine has been breached in some places, potentially cutting off land connections to Crimea before winter; however, he acknowledges the risk of Ukraine running down its own resources and the uncertainties regarding the continuation of Western support.
Russia has reinforced its infantry troops on the frontline in the Zaporizhzhia region with units from its VDV Airborne Forces, signaling a perceived step down for the elite paratrooper division and highlighting setbacks in Russia's ground forces as they struggle against Ukraine's forces.
Russia's Minister of Defence, Serhii Shoigu, claims that the Russian army is increasing its combat capacity through the acquisition of advanced armament and improved military training based on the experience of the war in Ukraine, as stated in a video published on 26 September.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev stated that if British troops were deployed to Ukraine for training purposes, they would become legitimate targets for Russian military strikes, following discussions of the UK moving military hardware production and training closer to Ukraine.
Ukraine's snipers, armed with U.S. weapons, are playing a vital role in defending against Russian forces in the ongoing conflict, as they are able to eliminate high-value targets with precision and cost-effectiveness.
Ukrainian forces are currently fighting off a major Russian offensive in the strategically important city of Avdiivka, with Russia sending in tanks, armored vehicles, and thousands of troops in an attempt to cut off and surround the Ukrainian forces inside the city's defenses.
Russian forces are making minor advancements both to the north and south of Avdiivka, a strategically important city near Donetsk, according to geolocated footage from Oct. 13 and 14, although Russian sources have noted that Ukrainian defensive fortifications and issues with medical support are hindering their progress.
Russian forces continue their fierce assaults on the Ukrainian town of Avdiivka, preventing emergency crews from recovering the dead and prompting both Russia and the United States to label it as a new offensive.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that Russian forces have strengthened their positions across the entire front line in Ukraine after the failure of Ukraine's counteroffensive, resulting in Russia controlling about 17.5% of Ukrainian territory and minimal territorial gains by Ukraine.
Russian forces have made gains in their Ukraine offensive, including in Avdiivka, a symbolic industrial hub, according to President Vladimir Putin.
