### Summary
The UK economy is facing inflationary pressures as measures of underlying inflation remain high, leading to expectations of further interest rate rises. However, different sectors of the economy are experiencing mixed fortunes, with some industries booming while others face challenges. The cost of living crisis is far from over, with food price inflation still expected to remain high.
### Facts
- Measures of underlying inflation, such as core inflation, remain stuck at a high rate even as headline inflation falls.
- Services inflation has increased to a joint 31-year high.
- Two-year and ten-year gilt yields have risen to their highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis, indicating market concerns about inflation.
- Some sectors, such as travel firms, hotels, and restaurants, are booming due to increased consumer spending on leisure, while others, like construction firms, are facing challenges due to rising costs.
- Food price inflation is expected to remain in double digits for the rest of the year, contributing to ongoing cost of living pressures.
- Higher interest rates may be necessary to temper economic demand and align it with the reduced supply potential of the economy caused by factors such as fewer workers, trade barriers, and reduced investment.
- Rising interest rates could potentially hamper efforts to improve the economy's productivity.
- The housing market is experiencing a holding pattern, with longer mortgage terms being offered to manage rising interest rates.
- Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey does not consider the housing market situation a "correction" or crisis.
### emoji 📈💼💸🔒🔺💰
- Inflationary pressures persist in the UK economy.
- Different sectors of the economy are experiencing mixed fortunes.
- Food price inflation remains high, contributing to ongoing cost of living pressures.
- Interest rates are expected to rise further due to inflation concerns.
- The housing market is in a holding pattern with longer mortgage terms being offered.
- Market conditions and economic recovery remain uncertain.
### Summary
Mortgage rates have reached a 21-year high, making home buying more expensive and deterring potential buyers. The increase in rates is largely due to the Fed's monetary policy, including interest rate hikes to combat inflation. Higher rates have also impacted sellers, leading to a decrease in housing supply.
### Facts
- Mortgage rates have climbed to 7.09 percent, a significant increase from the previous year's 5.13 percent.
- Higher mortgage rates have led to more expensive monthly payments for homebuyers, even if the house price remains the same.
- The Fed's interest rate hikes have indirectly affected long-term mortgage rates by making it costlier for banks to borrow money.
- The increase in rates has deterred potential buyers, with 66 percent of them waiting for rates to decrease before purchasing a home.
- Sellers have been less likely to list their homes due to the high rates, leading to a decrease in housing supply.
- It may take some time for rates to come back down, and experts predict downward pressure on rates throughout 2024.
### Summary
House price inflation in Britain slowed in June, with the exception of London, as high mortgage rates deter buyers. Meanwhile, in the US, policymakers are divided over the need for more interest rate hikes, and China's central bank cut a key interest rate due to economic risks.
### Facts
- 💰 Average UK house prices increased by 1.7% in June, down from 1.8% in May, with London being the only region where property prices fell by 0.6%.
- 💸 Policymakers in the US are divided over the need for more interest rate hikes, with "some participants" concerned about the risks of raising rates too far, while "most" officials prioritize battling inflation.
- 🇨🇳 China's central bank unexpectedly cut a key interest rate, the one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF), by 15 basis points to 2.5%, and also lowered the seven-day reverse repo rate to 1.8%.
- 📉 The rate cuts in China were implemented due to a deteriorating property market, weak consumer spending, and sluggish economic data, including trade and consumer price numbers as well as record-low credit growth.
Main Topic: Mortgage interest rates and their impact on homeownership
Key Points:
1. Mortgage interest rates have climbed to the highest level since November 2000, making homeownership less affordable for potential buyers.
2. Rising bond yields, increased supply of Treasury debt, and concerns about inflation are contributing to higher mortgage rates.
3. As a result, the U.S. housing market is becoming increasingly unaffordable, with the median home sale price continuing to rise.
High mortgage rates, reaching their highest level in 21 years, are driving up costs for home buyers and creating a sluggish housing market, with little relief expected in the near term.
The cost of buying a home in the UK has become more difficult due to a steep surge in interest rates, despite wages increasing faster than house prices over the past year, according to mortgage lender Halifax.
The surge in mortgage rates has caused housing affordability to reach the lowest level since 2000, leading to a slow fall in the housing market and a potential dip in home prices, although the current market differs from the conditions that preceded the 2008 crash, with low housing inventory and a lack of risky mortgage products, making mortgage rates the key lever to improve affordability.
Mortgage rates in the US climbed to a 22-year high, surpassing 7%, which is posing significant challenges for first-time homebuyers and exacerbating the wealth gap between homeowners and renters.
Australians are facing increasing mortgage stress, with 1.5 million borrowers at risk, as the number of households falling behind in repayments rises, indicating a growing cost-of-living crisis and potential financial challenges ahead.
Mortgage rates have increased recently due to inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, but experts predict rates will remain in the 6% to 7% range for now; homebuyers should focus on improving their credit scores and comparing lenders to get the best deal.
Summary: Rising interest rates have revealed issues in home loan markets, causing stagnation in housing markets and difficulties for borrowers in countries like the US, UK, Sweden, and New Zealand, highlighting the value of the Danish system of long-term fixed-rate mortgages with prepayable options and flexible transferability.
British factories in August experienced their weakest month since the start of the COVID-19 crisis due to shrinking orders caused by rising interest rates, according to a survey, resulting in a decline in purchasing activity, inventory holdings, and staffing levels. However, the slowdown in domestic and export demand has alleviated inflation pressures, potentially leading to a decrease in goods price inflation. With the economy showing signs of a slowdown, the Bank of England is expected to raise rates for the 15th consecutive time, despite concerns that it may lead to a recession.
Surging interest rates in the UK have led to a slump in factory output, the biggest annual drop in house prices since the global financial crisis, and signals of distress in different sectors of the economy, posing a dilemma for the Bank of England as it decides whether to raise interest rates further.
The percentage of Americans paying $2,000 or more per month for a home mortgage has increased significantly in the past two years, with 51% of homebuyers facing these high payments in July 2023, compared to 18% in 2021, according to data from Black Knight. Additionally, nearly a quarter of homebuyers now have mortgage payments above $3,000, highlighting the unaffordability of the housing market for many Americans.
The value of UK mortgage arrears has increased by almost a third in April-June compared to the same period last year, reaching its highest level since 2016, due to rising mortgage costs caused by multiple interest rate hikes by the Bank of England. While some experts predict a rise in defaults, others argue that the number of people unable to repay their mortgages remains relatively low.
The Bank of England may raise interest rates to 5.5% this autumn due to inflation remaining above target, potentially putting further financial strain on homeowners, while households on low incomes will receive cost of living support payments from the government totaling up to £1,350 this year, and the Energy Price Cap has dropped again to £1,923 for the final quarter of the year.
The surging mortgage rates are leading to higher monthly payments for new home buyers, with many facing payments of at least $2,000 and some spending over 60% of their income on their mortgage, making affordability a significant challenge for first-time buyers.
The prospect of the Bank of England pausing its interest rate hikes increased as the UK's high inflation rate unexpectedly slowed to an 18-month low, causing the pound to fall and investors to see a nearly 50-50 chance of rates staying on hold at the BoE's September meeting.
UK homeowners are feeling the strain as interest rates remain high, with many struggling to afford increased mortgage payments and considering drastic measures such as taking in lodgers or canceling expenses in order to make ends meet.
The average long-term U.S. mortgage rate has increased, posing challenges for homebuyers in an already unaffordable housing market.
Mortgage rates have increased over the last week, with average rates for 15-year fixed and 30-year fixed mortgages rising, while rates for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages remained steady; however, rates are expected to fluctuate in 2023 depending on inflation and economic indicators, and homebuyers are advised to focus on improving their credit score and saving for a down payment to qualify for the best rate.
The Bank of England has decided to halt interest rate rises due to unexpected inflation slowdown, while housing markets in major global economies, including the US, Germany, and the UK, are showing signs of slowing down. Additionally, there have been developments in various countries' economic outlooks and key interest rates.
UK lenders are expected to reduce mortgage rates following the Bank of England's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, potentially leading to a mortgage price war among banks and building societies. However, consumer champion Martin Lewis warns that attractive fixed-rate savings accounts may soon have lower rates.
Mortgage rates have increased recently due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, and there is a possibility of further rate increases if inflation persists, so homebuyers are advised to focus on getting the best rate for their financial situation.
Mortgage rates reaching their highest level in almost 23 years are causing a decline in demand for new loan applications.
Overall mortgage lending declined in 2022 due to the increase in interest rates and fees, resulting in reduced affordability, a higher percentage of borrowers paying discount points, and more denials for insufficient income; cash-out refinances saw a significant reduction while home-equity lines of credit increased.
The average rate on a five-year fixed mortgage in the UK has dropped below 6% for the first time since July, providing some hope for borrowers, although rates are still higher than they were a few months ago, and experts do not expect rates to reach the ultra-low levels seen in the past.
Mortgage rates have surged to their highest level since 2000, posing challenges for prospective homebuyers and potentially worsening the affordability of houses.
High mortgage rates and rising home prices are causing homebuyers to shy away from homeownership, with many canceling purchase agreements and sellers becoming more willing to negotiate on asking prices.
UK mortgage approvals have reached their lowest level in six months due to high interest rates cooling the housing market, according to the Bank of England, with net mortgage approvals for house purchases falling to 45,400 in August from 49,500 in July.
UK house prices are dropping at the fastest rate since 2009, driven by higher mortgage rates and affordability constraints, but buyer demand and consumer confidence are showing signs of improvement. Lowering mortgage rates could be key to revitalizing the housing market, which is expected to end the year with prices 2-3% lower than at the beginning of the year.
Many homeowners in Canada are expected to face financial pain as their mortgage comes up for renewal, with borrowers expected to see significant increases in their mortgage payments due to higher interest rates, particularly for those with fixed rates or variable rates but fixed monthly payments, according to the Bank of Canada; however, banks and lenders are responding by stretching out amortizations to reduce monthly payments, which is raising concerns about extended mortgage terms and how quickly homeowners build equity in their homes.
Rising mortgage rates are impacting home affordability, which has been declining since early 2021, causing some sellers to reduce their asking prices, but the lack of available properties remains a challenge for most buyers.
Mortgage applications hit their lowest levels in nearly 30 years due to an increase in borrowing costs, forcing potential buyers out of the market and leading to a rise in adjustable-rate mortgages as borrowers search for ways to lower their payments.
Higher mortgage rates are adding strain to prospective homebuyers as elevated home prices and a lack of inventory make it difficult to find affordable housing, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now at its highest level since December 2000.
Mortgage rates are expected to fall in the coming months, offering homebuyers more affordability and potentially boosting the housing market.
The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that mortgage originations will increase next year due to a mild recession leading to lower mortgage rates, although home prices will continue to appreciate due to low inventory.
