Canadian consumer and business confidence has plummeted to its lowest levels since the pandemic, leading to a disconnect between the state of the economy and the public's negative sentiment, which could be attributed to anxiety-inducing inflation and concerns about rising interest rates as well as worsening structural problems such as unaffordable home prices and stagnant GDP per capita.
The US Dollar performed strongly against major currencies, with the Euro experiencing its 8th consecutive weekly loss and the Chinese Yuan performing poorly, while global market sentiment was negative and stock markets weakened. In the coming week, market focus will be on the US inflation report, UK employment and GDP data, Australian employment data, and the ECB rate decision.
Americans are feeling uncertain about the economy's direction and are starting to worry about a possible government shutdown, as consumer sentiment dips in September due to concerns about inflation and higher gas prices.
Despite rising gas prices, Americans remain optimistic about inflation easing, as expectations for inflation rates in the year ahead have fallen to the lowest level since March 2021, according to a consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan. However, concerns are surfacing about a potential government shutdown, which could dampen consumer views on the economy.
U.S. stocks slumped amid mixed sentiment about the economy, with only the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising for the week, while European markets and the euro ticked up slightly. Famed investor Ray Dalio advised traders to hold cash as Treasury yields climb, and venture firms Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz face a significant loss on their investment in Instacart. Disney's potential sale of media assets signifies the end of traditional TV, and the Federal Reserve's meeting this week and FedEx's earnings announcement will provide insight into the global supply chain. U.S. consumer sentiment has edged down, but investors remain upbeat about the outlook for stocks and the economy.
Investors are focusing on the release of economic reports on GDP and inflation as they evaluate the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates and its efforts to cool down inflation. Metal prices have slipped due to concerns over global demand and the economy, and the risk of a government shutdown is also adding to the bearish sentiment. Earnings reports from various companies and core PCE inflation data are expected in the week ahead.
The market is facing uncertainties due to a long list of negatives that have yet to be fully discounted, including concerns about the economy, higher interest rates, a possible government shutdown, an auto strike, high oil prices, and the restart of student loan payments.
German and Spanish inflation data, European consumer confidence data, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments are expected to have little impact on the gloomy state of European and global markets, which have been plagued by rising oil prices, bond sell-offs, a strong dollar, and a nine-session drop in global stocks.
The possibility of a US government shutdown is causing uncertainty in the market, though investors believe it is unlikely to cause significant damage to stocks; however, the delay in economic reports could impact investor sentiment and contribute to market volatility.
Investor sentiment is being weighed down by factors such as rising interest rates, low bond yields, a potential government shutdown, and consumers facing rising prices without salary increases, but there is optimism that October could bring a turning point for the market.
Asian markets may be boosted by positive sentiment following a deal to prevent a U.S. government shutdown, but mixed Chinese data and a struggling economy may put a dampener on gains; central bank decisions and inflation data will also be watched closely this week.
Consumer sentiment in the US fell to its lowest level since May, with Americans' expectations for inflation over the next year reaching the highest level since April, potentially leading to higher price pressure.
Americans' moods soured in October due to a decline in sentiment and increased pessimism about the economy's future, largely driven by the wobbly stock market and higher-income individuals with sizable stock holdings, according to the University of Michigan's latest consumer survey.
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