### Summary
Gold prices have continued to decline due to rising US treasury yields and a stronger dollar. The FOMC meeting minutes revealed concerns about inflation and the potential need for additional interest rate hikes. The outlook for gold prices remains subdued ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech.
### Facts
- 📉 Gold prices have declined for the fourth consecutive week, breaking below the significant threshold of $1,900 per troy ounce and reaching their lowest point since March 2023.
- 📈 The continuous rise in US treasury yields and the dollar index has contributed to the decline in gold prices.
- 📊 US economic indicators, such as retail sales and manufacturing production, have outperformed expectations, highlighting resilient consumer spending and propelling the dollar index.
- 💸 The FOMC meeting minutes revealed concerns about inflation and the potential need for additional interest rate hikes, although two Fed officials favored keeping rates unchanged or pursuing a rate cut.
- 🇨🇳 Weakening sentiment in China and diverging monetary policies have also contributed to the strengthening dollar.
- 📆 The upcoming week will focus on flash manufacturing PMI figures and the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to address the economic outlook.
### Potential Implications
- ⬇️ Gold prices are expected to remain subdued in anticipation of Powell's speech, as elevated yields and a stronger dollar continue to impact the market.
### Summary
The stock market and house prices are at risk of crashing, while Bitcoin has already fallen. Investors are concerned about rising interest rates, the Chinese property market's instability, and the overall economic outlook.
### Facts
- The S&P 500 and FTSE 100 indexes have been declining, with the S&P 500 falling four percent over the last month and the FTSE 100 showing minimal progress.
- The Evergrande Group, a major Chinese property giant, has filed for bankruptcy with significant liabilities, adding to concerns about the Chinese economy.
- Youth unemployment in China is high and predictions of a crash worsen unless massive stimulus packages are implemented.
- The UK property market is uncertain, with predictions of a potential 25 percent crash in house prices due to disappointing inflation figures and potential interest rate hikes.
- Bitcoin has already experienced a ten percent drop in the last week, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market.
- The copper price, often used as an economic indicator, has fallen 12.64 percent over the last six months, suggesting an economic slowdown.
### Other Points
- Experts like Michael Burry and Jeremy Grantham are predicting a stock market crash, with Grantham even comparing it to the 1929 Wall Street Crash.
- It is important not to put too much trust in doomsayers, as they have often been wrong in the past.
- The author of the article is personally feeling gloomy about the economic outlook.
### Summary
Investors will be watching Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium for clues on the economic outlook and future interest rate hikes. China's property crisis and its impact on the economy, PMI data from the Eurozone and UK, and oil prices will also be key factors to watch.
### Facts
- 🔍 Investors will be looking to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole for insight into the economic outlook and the future path of interest rates.
- 💹 Markets will be focused on Powell's speech and earnings from chip designer Nvidia to gauge the interest rate outlook and market sentiment.
- 🇨🇳 Expectations are rising for China to cut the loan prime rate amid concerns of a deepening crisis in the country's property sector.
- 📊 PMI data from the Eurozone and UK will offer insights into potential interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.
- ⛽️ Oil prices declined last week due to concerns over global demand and the worsening property crisis in China.
Note: The use of emojis has been replaced with corresponding keywords.
### Summary
Reserve Bank Assistant Governor Karen Silk says the Official Cash Rate is working despite sticky core inflation and record high employment.
### Facts
- 📈 Headline inflation has been falling for the past year, but non-tradable inflation has not declined significantly.
- 📉 Core inflation has been stuck at 5.8% for the past three quarters.
- 🏠 The average mortgage rate is steadily climbing towards 6%.
- 📊 There are signs that the OCR is working to restore balance in the economy, such as falling forward orders for business and decreasing durable spending.
- 💰 Demand for residential mortgages has fallen 32.9% in the six months ended March.
- 📈 The Reserve Bank expects non-tradable inflation to be lower in the coming quarter on an annual basis, but the quarterly rate may still be high.
- ⛽ Higher petrol prices could lead to tradable inflation having its hottest quarter in two decades.
- 🎯 The OCR mostly targets domestic, or non-tradable, inflation.
- 🎯 The Reserve Bank's forecasts have been criticized for missing its inflation forecast, but Silk defends the forecasts, stating that they are as accurate as any other local economic institution.
- 📆 The Reserve Bank has forecasted that headline inflation will be back in the target range one year from now.
- 🤔 There is doubt about whether inflation will drop below 3% in September 2024, as predicted.
- 💲 Another rate hike may be required to achieve the Reserve Bank's inflation target.
- 💱 Some economists believe that the economic downturn could be worse than expected, making a rate hike unlikely in the near future.
### Summary
- European stocks rebound after a drop last week, while bond yields rise ahead of the Fed's Jackson Hole event.
- China's smaller-than-expected rate cuts and weak economic data disappointed investors.
### Facts
- 📈 European stocks edge higher after last week's rout.
- 📉 China stocks hit a 9-month low as rate easing underwhelms.
- China's central bank trims its one-year lending rate by 10 basis points, while leaving its five-year rate unchanged.
- Expectation remains for further stimulus from China.
- Asian shares decline due to disappointment, with Chinese blue chips falling to a nine-month low.
- Energy companies outperform as oil prices rise.
- Oil prices edge higher after a seven-week winning streak.
- Bond market sell-off leads to higher government borrowing costs.
- U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, with the 30-year yield touching a fresh 12-year high.
- The U.S. Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole conference is the key event for the week.
- Markets anticipate that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will address rising yields and strong economic data.
- Polls indicate that a majority of analysts believe the Fed is done hiking rates.
- Traders bet on a just under 40% chance of a final Fed hike by November.
- U.S. dollar trades flat after five weeks of gains.
- Gold prices affected negatively by the rise of the dollar and yields.
- Prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) supported by a potential strike at Australian offshore facilities.
- Dutch payments processor Adyen's shares drop amid concerns over weak earnings.
- Earnings from Nvidia will be closely watched.
Note: The given content contains parts that do not match the provided date range.
Investors will have a lot to consider this week as they analyze economic indicators such as US nonfarm payrolls, wage growth, and inflation, as well as Eurozone inflation numbers and central bank commentary, all of which could impact policy decisions and market sentiment.
The S&P 500 and other major indices are showing bearish signals, with potential for a significant drop, while the dollar is expected to maintain its upward trajectory and strong economic data could lead to a breakout in interest rates. Additionally, Meta's stock is on a downward trend and the KBW NASDAQ BANK Index is at risk of further decline.
Concerns of a stock market crash are growing as economists await the release of the second-quarter GDP report, which could provide insight into the impact of the Federal Reserve's rate-hike campaign and future monetary policy changes. The report may have a significant effect on equity markets, which have been sensitive to economic data releases this year.
The US dollar experienced a major technical reversal due to a weaker JOLTs report, leading to a drop in US interest rates, while market positioning played a role in the price action; the focus now shifts to personal consumption figures and US jobs data, with the euro and sterling firm but most other G10 currencies softer, and emerging market currencies mixed. In Asia, most large bourses advanced, but Europe's Stoxx 600 fell after rallying in previous sessions, while US index futures traded softer; European bonds are selling up, gold is consolidating, and oil prices are firm. Australia's CPI slowed more than expected, China is expected to release the August PMI, and Japan reports July retail sales. The US dollar has seen no follow-through selling against the yen, yuan, or Australian dollar, while the euro and sterling staged impressive price action. The JOLTS report saw the dollar and US rates reverse lower, and today the US reports advanced merchandise trade figures for July, with the Canadian dollar as the worst performing G10 currency yesterday.
Stock markets showed signs of improvement last week, fueled by hopes of a Goldilocks economic scenario, despite downward revisions in Q2 GDP growth and a slowdown in housing prices, while robust hiring and a decline in wage growth raised concerns about a cooling job market. The strength of U.S. consumers and the moderation of the Consumer Confidence index are factors that could influence the Federal Reserve's decisions on inflation, with investors advised to rely on trustworthy data and analysis. Noteworthy upcoming earnings and dividend announcements include Zscaler, Gitlab, GameStop, C3ai, American Eagle, DocuSign, and Kroger. Key economic reports this week will focus on Factory Orders, ISM Services PMI, and Q2 Non-Farm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
Stock investors have been reacting positively to "bad economic news" as it may imply a slowdown in the economy and a potential halt to interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, however, for this trend to change, economic data would have to be much worse than it is currently.
The United States Federal Reserve's financial woes and potential implications for cryptocurrency are discussed on the latest episode of "Macro Markets," highlighting challenges posed by inflation and the consequences of loose monetary policies during the pandemic.
Oil prices surge to the highest level in 10 months as Saudi Arabia and Russia extend production cuts, raising concerns about inflation and higher interest rates, while the resilient U.S. economy strengthens prospects for interest rate hikes; tensions escalate in the auto sector as contract negotiations with major automakers continue; GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen faces scrutiny from the SEC over stock trades; Apple's market value plummets due to concerns over China's ban on public workers using foreign-branded devices; semiconductor stocks weaken amid export restrictions on China; energy sector excels while industrials and utilities lag; upcoming key economic data to watch includes inflation rate, Producer Price Index, retail sales figures, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment data.
U.S. stock investors are closely watching next week's inflation data, as it could determine the future of the current equity rally, which has been fluctuating recently due to concerns over the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and inflationary pressures.
This week's economic reports, including the Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales, and Consumer Sentiment Index, will provide crucial information for investors and may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
The US dollar's strength in the foreign exchange market, along with discussions of de-dollarization, highlights the divergence between the US and other major economies. The Dollar Index is on an eight-week rally, reaching a record high in international payments, while the euro's share has declined to a record low. In the week ahead, the US CPI and the ECB meeting are expected to be major events, with the US showing signs of inflation and weaker demand, and the euro facing challenges amid stagnation and inflation. China's CPI and PPI have shown some improvement, but the focus will be on yuan loans and real sector data. The eurozone's focus will be on the possibility of a rate hike by the ECB and the release of July industrial production figures. Japan's household consumption continues to fall, and the country may experience a contraction in Q3. The UK will release employment data and GDP details, while Canada will see data on existing home sales and the CPI. Australia will release its August employment data, and Mexico's peso positions may continue to adjust due to the winding down of the currency forward hedging facility.
Bitcoin's weak performance and its potential "double top" structure raise concerns of more downside, with predictions of new local lows; however, there are indications that Bitcoin may experience a major shakeout before rebounding to "fair value" and the 200-week EMA near $25,600 may offer some optimism; debate ensues over the possibility of Bitcoin filling the $20,000 CME futures gap; liquidity levels on BTC/USD markets continue to increase, adding to bearish predictions; ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release on September 14 brings potential volatility to the market and may impact crypto market expectations.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies have been experiencing a steady decline in prices due to concerns from the Federal Reserve, leading to warnings of a potential price crash, although some analysts remain hopeful for improvement.
Uncertainty in various sectors, including potential strikes, government shutdowns, geopolitical tensions, and the question of future Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, is causing markets to lack conviction, but this week's inflation readings could provide direction for the markets. If inflation comes in below expectations, it may signal that the Fed will not hike rates further, while stronger-than-expected inflation could lead to more rate hikes and market volatility. Additionally, increasing energy prices and the potential strike by the United Auto Workers union add to the uncertainty.
Stock indices closed in the red, with the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all experiencing declines, while the technology sector underperformed and the energy sector led the session. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield dropped, while the Two-Year Treasury yield increased. The Small Business Optimism Index for August decreased, with inflation cited as a major concern among small business owners. Stocks opened lower on Tuesday, and U.S. futures trended lower as well. This week's focus will be on the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index data, which could impact the Federal Reserve's decision on rate hikes. Oracle's stock fell after missing sales estimates, while Casey's General and Tesla saw gains. JPMorgan's CEO criticized new Basel III regulations, and European indices traded in the green. In Asia-Pacific, markets ended mixed as traders await U.S. inflation data.
The latest inflation report is expected to show a steady increase in consumer prices, with economists predicting a 3.6% overall inflation compared to last year, indicating that inflation is gradually coming down but still remains above the Federal Reserve's target.
Cryptocurrency prices remained stable as inflation in the U.S. surpassed economists' expectations, with Bitcoin trading at around $26,100 and Ethereum experiencing a slight dip of 0.5%. The Federal Reserve will consider this report, among other factors, for its upcoming interest rate announcement on September 20. While inflation has decreased since June, it still exceeds the Fed's target of 2% annually. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy costs, decreased to 4.3% in August compared to July's 4.7%.
Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, including a rise in producer prices and retail sales, has sparked concerns about sticky inflation and has reinforced the belief that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.
The potential government shutdown threatens to deprive the Federal Reserve of crucial data on the labor market and inflation, which could hinder its ability to make informed decisions about the economy and interest rates.
Despite rising gas prices, Americans remain optimistic about inflation easing, as expectations for inflation rates in the year ahead have fallen to the lowest level since March 2021, according to a consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan. However, concerns are surfacing about a potential government shutdown, which could dampen consumer views on the economy.
Mixed economic reports and market volatility have raised concerns ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy rate meeting, with retail sales exceeding expectations but a decline in consumer sentiment and rising fuel prices signaling a potential weakening in consumer spending; the successful IPO of chip designer Arm Holdings has boosted investor sentiment, while the initiation of the autoworkers' strike has negatively impacted markets; all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve's meeting this week, with investors closely monitoring data for insights into future decisions.
The upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting is generating less attention than usual, indicating that the Fed's job of pursuing maximum employment and price stability is seen as successful, with labor market data and inflation trends supporting this view.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain steady interest rates at its two-day meeting, but investors will be focused on policymakers' economic forecasts, while metals prices remain mixed and U.S. stock markets anticipate the release of the Fed's policy projections.
Summary: The markets have experienced various shocks this week, with the most significant one coming from the Federal Reserve, making labor data more crucial than Fed discussions.
Summary: The potential government shutdown in the US is unlikely to have a significant impact on the stock market, as historical data shows that market returns have been relatively unaffected in the past, and the economic effects of a shutdown are limited with most government workers continuing to receive pay. However, a prolonged shutdown could complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation and implement monetary policy changes.
Summary: This page provides full coverage of the personal income and consumer spending report, including the release of inflation data targeted by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
The coming week will see the release of several economic indicators, including manufacturing purchasing managers' index, jobs openings and labor turnover survey, employment surveys, and the unemployment insurance claims report, as well as corporate earnings announcements and investor meetings for various companies.
Investors will be keeping a close eye on the latest data on the U.S. labor market this week, which will have implications for consumer spending and the Federal Reserve.
Summary: The U.S. stock market had a bad quarter, with all indexes falling, while the World Bank lowered its growth forecast for developing economies in East Asia and the Pacific, and China's demand for commodities continues to grow despite the downgrade. Additionally, a last-minute spending bill was passed to avoid a government shutdown, and this week's focus will be on the labor market.
The major stock indexes are expected to open lower as the 10-year Treasury yield hits a 16-year high, with investors monitoring employment data for potential impact on interest rates; meanwhile, stock futures in Asia and Europe slumped as the Federal Reserve's message of higher interest rates reverberates worldwide.
Morningstar's chief U.S. market strategist, Dave Sekera, is closely watching economic reports, including the ISM and PMI readings, as well as payrolls and unemployment data, while expecting a slowing rate of economic growth but no recession; Sekera also discusses the rising yields on the 10-year Treasury, their impact on the stock and bond markets, and provides insights into sector and investment style performance and valuation heading into the fourth quarter
Concerns surround the upcoming release of U.S. payrolls data and how hawkish the Federal Reserve needs to be, as global markets experience a period of calm following a tumultuous week that saw Treasury yields rise to 16-year highs, crude oil prices drop, equities decline, and the yen strengthen. Japanese government bond yields are also causing concern, as investor sentiment towards the Bank of Japan's stimulus remains low.
Investors are awaiting the jobs report to determine the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates, with wage growth and revisions to previous monthly totals being key factors to watch, amidst indications that the economy is less sensitive to rising interest rates due to lower household and corporate debt levels.
Investors in the week ahead will focus on the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, third quarter earnings reports from companies like Pepsi, Delta, and JPMorgan, and insights from the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes.
Both the consumer and producer prices indices are set to be released this week, providing investors with another look at US inflation data, with expectations of a gradual decrease in inflation as crude oil and gasoline prices drop. Additionally, the impact of weight loss drugs on grocery sales is being monitored, with companies like Walmart and Coca-Cola experiencing fluctuations in stock prices.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September 2023 is expected to show a slow increase in prices, with market expectations forecasting a 0.3% increase in core inflation on a monthly basis and 4.1% on a yearly basis, which may lead to stronger market reactions if the figures exceed expectations. Banks such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America have provided their predictions for the upcoming CPI report. Analysts suggest that if the core CPI exceeds 0.1% on a monthly basis, it could lead to a decline in the stock market as it may indicate a potential interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. This data is particularly significant as it precedes the FOMC meeting scheduled for October 31-November 1.
The U.S. stock market is currently trading at a discount to fair value, and Morningstar expects rates to come down faster due to optimism on inflation; strong growth is projected in Q3, but the economy may slow down in Q4, and inflation is expected to fall in 2023 and reach the Fed's 2% target in 2024. The report also provides outlooks for various sectors, including technology, energy, and utilities, and highlights some top stock picks. The fixed-income outlook suggests that while interest rates may rise in the short term, rates are expected to come down over time, making it a good time for longer-term fixed-income investments. The corporate bond market has outperformed this year, and although bankruptcies and downgrades may increase, investors are still being adequately compensated for the risks.
The upcoming monthly inflation report is expected to show that inflation in the US is cooling off, with overall prices for consumers rising by 0.2% compared to August and 3.6% compared to a year ago, indicating slower price increases in September than in August. However, if the report reveals that inflation remained higher than expected, especially in core areas, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again, further slowing the economy.
The minutes from the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting confirm that the central bank is closely monitoring data on inflation, adding significance to today's consumer prices report; the report is expected to show a marginal decrease in inflation pressures in September, which would be welcome news for the U.S. central bank, although the path to lower inflation and a return to the 2% target remains uncertain due to the potential impact of higher energy prices caused by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are down following the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed slowing inflation, with experts noting that investors are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset and CPI figures are becoming less relevant for the crypto market.
Corporate earnings will be the focus in the week ahead, with Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Tesla, and Netflix reporting, among others, while recent economic data shows cooling inflation and uncertainty remains around future interest rate hikes.
Geopolitical tensions, earnings reports, U.S. retail sales data, and speeches by Federal Reserve officials will shape the week ahead in markets, along with oil volatility and economic data from China and the U.K.
The past week saw significant volatility in financial markets, with gold and crude oil prices rallying, cautious Fedspeak cooling government bond yields, and sentiment-linked currencies underperforming. The upcoming week will bring notable event risks, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech, China's GDP figures, and employment and inflation reports from the UK and Canada.
The Federal Reserve has expressed concerns about persistent inflation, potential losses in the US office market, and funding pressures on certain banks in its recent report.
